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In climate science parlance it means it's a conservative guess and will likely happen faster than anticipated.
by dao- 1y ago
In climate science parlance it means it's a conservative guess and will likely happen faster than anticipated.
- flanked-evergl 1y ago[flagged]
- lynx97 1y ago30 years ago I learnt in school in chemistry class that earths oil reserves will be used up in 30 years.
- panstromek 1y agoThat was true back then though. It boils down to how oil "reserve" is defined, which is all about oil we know how to extract.
- lynx97 1y agoIt didn't turn out to be true though. "True back then" seems like a weird way to phrase "wrong".
- panstromek 1y agoNo, it wasn't wrong, because "oil reserves" are defined as: "quantities of crude oil and natural gas from known fields that can be profitably produced/recovered from an approved development", which means they change over time, when we find new oil or develop new technologies. And that's also what happened.
- polotics 1y agoAlso maybe at one point accept that "Oil" with an EROEI dangerously getting to below the 1.0 mark is not the same "Oil" as was talked-about 30 years ago: if your shale sands have to get burnt with local coal or natgas to get a pipeline-able liquid, but the total energy spent on the process is about as much as will be dispersed by combustion engines down the line... then you're treading very murky waters indeed.
- dao- 1y agoSchool chemistry means it was a ~20 year old prediction 30 years ago, based on known oil deposits 50 years ago. It would have been a hopeful prediction from today's perspective, as we would necessarily have stopped pumping and burning oil by now, but unfortunately we haven't.
- palmfacehn 1y agoHere's an article which is nearly 30 years old. Neo-malthusians remain just as undeterred by your observation as they were in 1997. https://www.wired.com/1997/02/the-doomslayer-2/ https://www.wired.com/1997/02/the-doomslayer-2/
- BlueTemplar 1y agoWow, was Wired... trolling ?! Did they seriously believe they could convince opponents with this ? (But it was probably just preaching to the choir...)
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- dao- 1y agoThis is just not true. We're watching ocean currents collapse in real time. You're the frog getting boiled being angry at the thermometer. Wake the f- up.
- flanked-evergl 1y agoFrom MIT climate portal 2024: https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/what-would-happen-if-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc-collapses-how-likely https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/what-would-happen-if-atlanti... > “The likelihood that the AMOC collapses, let's say, before the end of the century, according to numerical models and our understanding, is pretty small. Most likely the weakening will be modest,” he says.
- lgeorget 1y agoThe Tuvalu Islands are disappearing under water to the point that the population has to plan their emigration, that's one catastrophe.
- vixen99 1y agohttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02954-1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02954-1 'Net increase in land area of 2.9%' 'Land area increase in eight of nine atolls. Island change has lacked uniformity with 74% increasing and 27% decreasing in size.' 'Results challenge perceptions of island loss, showing islands are dynamic features that will persist as sites for habitation over the next century, presenting alternate opportunities for adaptation that embrace the heterogeneity of island types and their dynamics.'
- chki 1y agoAlso: "Sea-level rise and climatic change threaten the existence of atoll nations. Inundation and erosion are expected to render islands uninhabitable over the next century, forcing human migration"
- ykonstant 1y agoThe coral reefs... :(
- ndsipa_pomu 1y agoI've seen for myself the remarkable retreat/melt of glaciers in Norway.
- flanked-evergl 1y agoNot exactly a catastrophe. But I did hear that the summer this year in Norway is particularly harsh. I hope you get some days this year when it's possible for you to go outside without getting heat stress. It's important to stay safe out there.
- Morizero 1y agoWho you going to believe, politicians or your own lying eyes? https://www.usgs.gov/centers/norock/science/repeat-photography-project https://www.usgs.gov/centers/norock/science/repeat-photograp...
- flanked-evergl 1y agoPoliticians, almost without fail, subscribe to climate hysteria, as that allows them to do whatever they want and claim they are doing it for the climate. It's a perfect boondoggle for them.