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Tesla Solar Sales Declined for 4 Qtrs. Then Tesla Stopped Publishing the Numbers
- i80and 1y agoTesla was pushing solar pretty hard for a time a long time ago. My memories actually line up with the charts here. Then they kind of just... stopped talking about it at all? In retrospect it was kind of a quiet sea change for the company as a whole.
- joakleaf 1y agoAgreed. They stopped talking about it... I have a feeling they are not really that competitive in this market segment, but were helped by a strong brand. Anyone know if they actually make money on Solar at all, and have an idea what their profit margin is? And what does the the competition look like (also for e.g. PowerWall)?
- potato3732842 1y ago>I have a feeling they are not really that competitive in this market segment, but were helped by a strong brand. All commoditized market segments are like that to varying extents.
- ceejayoz 1y agoIt's likely just not high-margin enough to satisfy Tesla investors. Panels have become commoditized.
- mikeyouse 1y agoThat whole solar city acquisition was a bit of a debacle with Elon buying a very suspect and deeply indebted company that his cousins had founded and controlled for a questionable amount of money… that was probably the first big warning sign that Tesla’s board was out to lunch.
- bayarearefugee 1y agoYeah I don't think Tesla ever really cared about solar, they just had to talk the talk for a bit to help grease a very shady business deal (with strong echoes of the recently announced xAI/X deal).
- NickM 1y agoI agree the whole thing was shady, but did they really never care about solar? I thought the solar roof was announced well after the SolarCity deal, and it seemed like they were serious about ramping that up for a while (though obviously that never really went anywhere or fulfilled any of the original promises either).
- codechicago277 1y agoSolarCity was about to go bankrupt (owned by Elon Musk’s cousins), so he found a way to justify bailing them out with Tesla money. He held the famous solar roof event, saying that all the homes behind him had solar roofs cheaper than a normal roof, which was later proven a lie. Tesla’s entire solar business was built on that foundation, and they struggled to justify it in the long term.
- Analemma_ 1y agoThey were pushing it hard because at the time they needled to deflect the accusations that the SolarCity purchase was fraud, nepotism, and insider dealing. Now that most people have forgotten about that, there's no need to talk about it anymore.
- hartator 1y ago[flagged]
- chollida1 1y ago> Kind of interesting that we should now rejoice of EV and solar panel numbers dropping. Maybe I missed it in the article but why should we rejoice that EV and solar panel numbers are dropping? Isn't that a bad thing?
- kisamoto 1y agoNo we shouldn't be but I think the point here is more that "this company's sales are dropping".
- Zigurd 1y agoTesla is no longer a leader in any part of decarbonizing anything, and for good reason: 1. Teslas image rests entirely on Elon Musk; 2. Aging products and no successful innovation.
- hermitcrab 1y ago3. A long history of exaggeration and broken promises (and that is being charitable).
- jchw 1y agoWell, to be fair, solar installations and EV sales have been surging, just not from Tesla.
- hobs 1y agoThat's definitely two different sets of clashing memes being mixed there. Right wing - cheering on Oil and Tesla. Left wing - cheering on Teslas demise and Solar.
- rsynnott 1y agoTesla is simply not a significant player in the solar business.
- timmg 1y agoJust bought a new house in the burbs. Want to get solar. I assumed Tesla was a good company to get them through. Does anyone have (a non-political) opinion on Tesla Solar? And/or how I should think about getting panels (and battery) installed at my house?
- kypro 1y agoI have personal no experience to give, but I thought this was a good video when I watched in a while ago, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJeSWbR6W04 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJeSWbR6W04
- bearjaws 1y agoExcept you can guarantee MKBHD got the best of the best service with Elon Musk personally holding a gun to the head of whomever was in charge of the install. They literally work with their top influencers for FSD to make it looks more impressive than it really is. He even talks about how everyone was having problems but "for whatever reason it went perfectly"... and it still took 8 months https://electrek.co/2024/07/09/tesla-insiders-say-elon-optimized-full-self-driving-routes-for-himself-influencers/ https://electrek.co/2024/07/09/tesla-insiders-say-elon-optim...
- bearjaws 1y agoFriend ordered the solar roof (the solar panels that look like shingles), and after waiting a year switched to their regular solar. From my conversations it was a complete mess to get installed, with poor communication on their end. After it was installed he had 2 issues within 2 years resulting in them needing to replace hardware. Add in that it was quite expensive, he is not a happy customer.
- blitzar 1y agoHigher price than competitiors and they have a poor reputation for after sales service. A repuatable local company will be cheaper and you can have roughly the same equipment (tesla powerwall) and have after sales support.
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- looofooo0 1y agoApart from the questionable economics of single family home roof solar. Having an integrated PV roof just makes things worse. It couples function of the roof to the PV function. With normal panels on top of a normal roof, one actually protects the roof and prolongs its life as it protect the roof below from UV, weather and heat.
- rconti 1y agoTesla solar is PV panels. I think you're thinking of the solar shingle thing which, as far as I know, never really took off. From googling around, they're still advertising it, and people have gotten quotes for it, but I imagine it's a tiny fraction of sales.
- looofooo0 1y agoWhat is the point using tesla as a middle man then?
- rconti 1y agoTesla sells their own branded panels and monitoring solution, and do the installation. Other installers might sell you LG panels and Enphase inverters and LG batteries, and then your monitoring comes from whomever, and the installation warranty provided by the installer. So, no matter who you choose as a vendor, the parts are typically made by several different companies, and someone needs to install them and provide support. I assume people who use Tesla as their middleman vs some other middleman do so for branding, monitoring, whatever reasons. Maybe they like the complete solar+powerwall battery+app solution. I don't know.
- vintagedave 1y agoThe article notes they think Tesla should be about to find customers for solar easily, so asked, what's going on? And that a high point for them was installing 100 megawatts -- which struck me as small. Some quick googling and clicking result #1 (risky, I know) showed this [1] claiming that 2024 was the second record-breaking solar installation year in a row. And that 50 gigawatts had been installed in the US. That makes me think: * Isn't Tesla Solar's max 100Mw number rather, well, tiny? A small drop? Why, for a company like Tesla? * The article's exactly right. They _should_ be able to find more customers. Does anyone have more insight? Does this part of the company have a good reputation? [1] https://seia.org/research-resources/us-solar-market-insight/ https://seia.org/research-resources/us-solar-market-insight/
- acdha 1y agoEveryone I know who’s looked said they cost too much. I think they’re walking away from a commodity market because they don’t want to spend time on lower margin business lines.
- sharemywin 1y agoTrue much more money to be made hyping crypto, AI and robotics.
- rsynnott 1y ago> The article's exactly right. They _should_ be able to find more customers. It's an ultra-competitive commodity business; the business goes to whoever will sell and install the things the cheapest.
- crote 1y agoThe market shifted. Solar used to be a luxury product, with only some environment-conscious rich people putting them on their roof. In that market the solar shingles made a lot of sense. But solar has become a commodity product. Panel-wise the big bucks is in massive industrial greenfield installations, but Tesla's private-label brand can't compete on that market. In the residential market they are competing with every single local contractor who's willing to make a few bucks throwing bargain-bin panels on your roof, and their own system of proprietary panels and subcontractors can't compete with that either - especially when they force you to buy a power wall as well.
- sleepytimetea 1y agoTesla panels and total price after installation is too high to be competitive- only the Powerwall enthusiasts buy panels+powerwalls from tesla. Other panels are so cheap these days and EG4 makes excellent power storage options.
- intrasight 1y agoLast year I asked them for a Powerwall quote and was told that I can't get powerwall without their solar panels
- jebarker 1y agoYou can do this if you use an approved third party installer. I just installed a large solar array with non-Tesla panels but using two of the latest Powerwalls as inverter and storage
- Gasp0de 1y agoWhy use a Powerwall if you could use a better and cheaper inverter battery combination? Just because the app is beautiful?
- jebarker 1y ago> Just because the app is beautiful? Yes, that's the only possibility right? In case you wanted a serious answer and not just an internet reaction: our utility offered substantial rebates on Powerwalls specifically.
- Sonnigeszeug 1y agoInterestingly enough, Powerwall is the only product I know and heard of, which can do grid disconnect and reconnect out of the box. Unfortunate for this particular product (i do not like tesla anymore), i also never heard anything about it after that one Musk presentation infront of a house with tesla roof. But if your ecosystem is Tesla (before Musk), the synergy would definitly be very nice. 'Just because' lucky enough some people do not mind investing money into beauty.
- resters 1y agoIt's hard to take a company seriously whose founder goes all in for Trump. It's humiliating.
- tensility 1y agoIt was already demonstrably foolish to trust anything Elon says before he made his explicit turn towards techno-fascism, but that certainly seals the deal for me.
- Sonnigeszeug 1y agoThis is probably secondary. The biggest f* to the world is an oligarch / the richest person in the world, dismantling social help for poor people. I'm pretty sure there have been death due to this. You can't disrupt a governance and poor people like twitter without real consequences (and yes even for the twitter people it was shitty but lets be real, no food vs. getting fired from a well paying job is not the same)
- jmyeet 1y agoTesla is a meme stock. Caveat emptor. For a considerable period, the price has never made sense considering the fundamentals. It's currently valued at ~$450k per car delivered in 2024 with a P/E ratio of 108 and that's after a 50% decline from its peak. Just compare it to any other car company, be it the Big Three, European car makers or BYD.f The whole purchase of SolarCity was one of Elon's companies (Tesla) buying another company of Elon's that was failing (SolarCity) because it owed a lot of money to a third company of Elon's (SpaceX). Tesla's most recent quarterly shipments are down 13# Y/Y with likely worse to come. The brand is being publicly torched by the actions of its CEO. A protracted trade war with China could end very badly for Tesla. A trade war with Europe may see the EU replace its demand for EVs with the likes of BYD. Solar is (now) a commodity business. The panels get ever-cheaper. The only real cost is installation. And a labor-intensive cost like that doesn't scale. I predict that Tesla will be forced to try and save itself by ousting its CEO in the coming years.
- zfg_ 1y ago[flagged]
- boringg 1y agoCan I add that outside of the political commentary because thats mainly the only reason this is on hackernews. There are mounting challenges in climate tech - specifically in residential solar: 1. Residential solar has been under punishing economic headwinds. Tariffs (before this) against imported PV. The market has not been performing. 2. Many of the Public Utilities are making it very difficult for solar to work out financially for home owners - see CPUC in California changing the terms of NEM to the advantage of the Utilities as an example. 3. Energy storage in residential markets has ALWAYS been an insurance product/backup power and not a financially beneficial product. It is tough competition against generators etc 4. Utilities are wisening up and increasing their fees and reducing the benefits of on site power generation. 5. Residential solar has likely already found all the best home owners (ie lowest CAC) so are now pursuing harder to reach.
- lotsofpulp 1y agoThe risk reward ratio is way off at most people’s electricity prices. At best, you save yourself a few dollars in electricity costs (unless you’re in super high priced and sunny California). At worst, you need to deal with a roofing problem. For backup purposes, a generator and some fuel seems to be a lot more bang for the buck.
- 1970-01-01 1y agoVery long term however it generally isn't a better deal. 15 years with solar is generally no maintenance with linear gains beginning about halfway through. Compared to 15 with a combustion engine that loses value the day it's installed, needs permanent maintenance to operate efficiently and effectively, and only generates value (ha) during disruptions.
- boringg 1y agoSolar actually runs into inverter problems by year 10. Roof needs to be redone maybe year 20 if you installed with a new roof. The back up generator is really compared against the energy storage asset and not the solar array. On a multi-day/weeklong winter grid failure generator is a much safer asset to have to protect the home - even including your loss equation.
- legitster 1y agoI heard a former Solar City marketing person talk about it. He said when Tesla bought them back, Musk cancelled all of the marketing budget. Musks justification was that marketing was a waste of money and he could get more sales via a single free tweet. He then proceeded to not tweet about that part of his business.
- skc 1y agoSuch a brilliant idea all the same. A shame that the economics never seemed to work.
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- tensility 1y agoDid they ever actually install many of those solar tiles?
- kkfx 1y agoIMVHO as an European, with p.v. and storage: - I do want DC-direct car charging, not double conversion, something who exists in EU CCS-combo as a standard but not a single vendor implement it... - I do want a LOCAL FIRST (and only eventually) system, some vendors offer that, I do not know if Tesla offer that but I doubt a bit - I do want modular batteries because anyone have different storage needs - a classic string inverter OR microinverter who do not waste p.v. power because modules output more than they can convert for AC usage, but DC direct for charging all batteries AND possibly for heat pumps compressors as well Why I write this here? Well because Telsa have a single peculiarity "being ahead of the others" and actually for p.v. they are not ahead of anyone. My small system is built on a Victron master inverter (relatively FLOSS with a custom Debian named VenusOS, well integrated in Home Assistant), on BYD moderately modular batteries and Fronius p.v. inverters, good for the p.v. parts but very bad in software terms. It's still more open than Tesla and perform better than PowerWall+Solar roof in theory. Tesla cars still have the best software even if way too much service-oriented, but beside that they have shown very little innovation and China taking on quickly, also some choices like do not have V2L I can use to power my main inverter and so a bit usable to power the home with extra storage of the car battery penalize Tesla as well. Long story short in the past they was good. But tech evolve and they seems not much interested in positive evolution. I'm not interested in Cybertruck or in small usual cabin controls changes like directions on the steering wheel as buttons, I do care about substantial evolution. If Tesla offer something like: - a hybrid p.v. inverter with 400V DC + data channel and car charging home station - modular storage from 5 to 50 to 100 kWh - home heat pumps DC direct for sanitary water, home heating/cooling I buy it, no question. If not they haven't nothing I can buy from different vendors, cheaper and even less closed.
- tim333 1y agoMarques Brownlee had a system put in and ran it for a year. It was ok but cost $120k which seems a bit steep. Summary section of vid: https://youtu.be/UJeSWbR6W04?t=1119 https://youtu.be/UJeSWbR6W04?t=1119