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The Democrats Are in Denial About 2024

13 points by apsec112 1y ago

techpineapple 1y ago
I think there's a weird counter to this that people are in denial about the Democrats denial. Democrats have always been unpopular. Americans are conservative. I think people voted for Trump because Trump was able to convince them that Politics is easy, that strong men can fix everything, and Americans won't be convinced as easily to vote for Democrats. Trump will probably screw a bunch of stuff, and maybe Democrats run someone in 2028 that can recapture some of his constituency. That sure, they should and will make changes but the sad truth is the electorate will reward them for none of that, and that the electorate has taught Democrats that sad but real truth to just ride out Trump's failures, and hope to get lucky in the future. But I think this is true on both sides. I think Republicans are in denial that the wave they're on will survive the end of Trump. I think everyone underestimates Trump, the left, the right. Everyone seems to keep looking at Trump's numbers and for some reason coming to the conclusion that Republicans are popular outside of Trump, I remember talking to all sorts of people that said Nikki Haley would be the Republican nominee, because she was smart and good, and Trump would open his mouth and screw thing sup. For some reason, people seem to think that Republicans will do _better_ without Trump, and that's just as delusional as everything else. I
- almosthere 1y ago
  I disagree with this: > I think people voted for Trump because Trump was able to convince them that Politics is easy, that strong men can fix everything, and Americans won't be convinced as easily to vote for Democrats. If it wasn't Kamala or Biden, the Democrats may have won. But only if: * They rejected the trans ideology (at least to the extent that they play in womens sports / be in women's locker rooms). * get tough on crime * get tough on immigration without some fake border bill * get tough on drugs * stay strong on environment They would have won so easily.
  - techpineapple 1y ago
    I don't think so. I understand what you're trying to say, and I don't think I disagree with the essence of what you're trying to say, but... Why vote for a Democrat to do those things, when overwhelmingly people think Republicans are better on those things? I don't think anyone would have bought it, I don't think the senate or house would support it, and if you wanted people to think Democrats were good on those things, it would take decades of changing to make people think you actually were.
    - almosthere 1y ago
      Because people would have rather had those fixes and stayed with their party and not had the explosive figure of DT. The democrats were SO BAD that many people couldn't stand the extreme leftists policies that even DT was worth voting for. If they had gone more moderate, ditched both Biden and Kamala, we would have a president Newsom right now. Also, as it turns out, Newsom's teen son is a huge Charlie Kirk fan - which has been influencing Newsom.
- jampekka 1y ago
  Trump is unpopular. He's never gotten majority approval in a Gallup poll for example. https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job...
  - techpineapple 1y ago
    He is, and I get this, but I think there's something wrong with the data, something like, MAGA is popular, and even though he's an imperfect steward of MAGA, he's the only valid steward of MAGA. Or, he's unpopular, but he's unpopular with people who will always vote Republican, and popular with people who will only vote Trump, pushing Republican's over the top. But how do you explain Trump being unpopular, and like sports stars doing the Trump dance? https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/sport/trump-dance-sports-spt-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/sport/trump-dance-sports-spt-... Or how do you explain that Republicans underperform when Trump is not on the ballot? Or how do you explain that Trump absolutely annihilated his competition in the primary! This feels like a perfect example of Bezos' "When the data and the anecdotes disagree, believe the anecdotes" Trump won the only poll that matters. Destroyed by most metrics. Who cares what the polls say about him being unpopular?
    - jampekka 1y ago
      MAGA is not popular. Only about 50% of republicans are MAGA and about 30% of the population are republicans. Being generous, MAGA has something like 20% support. Trump's win was hardly a destruction. It was quite slim.
      - techpineapple 1y ago
        Donald Trump beat Nikki Haley 2268 delegates to 97 delegates. 17,015,756 to 4,381,799 popular votes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presiden....
ThrowawayR2 1y ago
Archive link: https://archive.is/HE1fw https://archive.is/HE1fw
mindcrime 1y ago
I'm very much not a Democrat or a Republican, and in many ways I don't give a shit what the Democrats do. But in the vein of "competition is good" and believing that a moderately heathy Democratic party is valuable as a counterweight to oppose the GOP, here's what I'd suggest the Democrats do: 1. Run candidates who are likeable and more importantly, likeable by most Americans. No arrogant "smarter than thou", preachy, judgmental types. Run people who are intelligent and ethical, yes, but with a folksy, down-to-earth side. 2. Drop the radical anti-gun stance and embrace the 2nd Amendment as being just as important as every other part of the Bill of Rights. 3. Stop focusing so much on identity politics. Yes, sure, continue to stand for equality and inclusiveness. But don't make gender politics, trans-politics, race-politics, etc. your lynchpin issues. 4. Reclaim your historical "anti-war party" status. 5. Don't be so abstract. Bring things down to a level that can appeal to the "everyman". Ex: protecting the environment. Don't just talk about "protecting the environment" in the abstract, as though everybody universally values that (even if you believe they should). Instead, talk about protecting the lakes and creeks that people fish in, the gamelands they hunt in, the marshes and bays where so much of our seafood grows, etc. 6. Go more in the direction of the Blue Dog[1] Democrats in general. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Dog_Coalition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Dog_Coalition
- alabastervlog 1y ago
  > 2. Drop the radical anti-gun stance and embrace the 2nd Amendment as being just as important as every other part of the Bill of Rights. I agree, but also they mostly do and Republican voters still come out to the voting booth because they're sure—seriously, this is a real thing—that Biden's going to take their guns, and they mean literally, ban guns and try to round them all up. > 6. Go more in the direction of the Blue Dog[1] Democrats in general. Here, I cannot follow you. They need to go far more left-populist on the economy and taxation. They're badly out of sync with their own voters on that, in much the same way Republicans were before Trump came along and started campaigning on the exact same messages you'd hear talking to actual Republican voters in diners ("Why don't they just build a wall?", "NAFTA is unfair and we trade too much with China", "the whole world's taking advantage of us", et c.)
  - 1y ago
chrsw 1y ago
> Trump was able to convince them that Politics is easy, that strong men can fix everything Similar to Russia and China

13 points by apsec112 1y ago

I think there's a weird counter to this that people are in denial about the Democrats denial. Democrats have always been unpopular. Americans are conservative. I think people voted for Trump because Trump was able to convince them that Politics is easy, that strong men can fix everything, and Americans won't be convinced as easily to vote for Democrats. Trump will probably screw a bunch of stuff, and maybe Democrats run someone in 2028 that can recapture some of his constituency. That sure, they should and will make changes but the sad truth is the electorate will reward them for none of that, and that the electorate has taught Democrats that sad but real truth to just ride out Trump's failures, and hope to get lucky in the future. But I think this is true on both sides. I think Republicans are in denial that the wave they're on will survive the end of Trump. I think everyone underestimates Trump, the left, the right. Everyone seems to keep looking at Trump's numbers and for some reason coming to the conclusion that Republicans are popular outside of Trump, I remember talking to all sorts of people that said Nikki Haley would be the Republican nominee, because she was smart and good, and Trump would open his mouth and screw thing sup. For some reason, people seem to think that Republicans will do _better_ without Trump, and that's just as delusional as everything else. I

almosthere 1y ago
I disagree with this: > I think people voted for Trump because Trump was able to convince them that Politics is easy, that strong men can fix everything, and Americans won't be convinced as easily to vote for Democrats. If it wasn't Kamala or Biden, the Democrats may have won. But only if: * They rejected the trans ideology (at least to the extent that they play in womens sports / be in women's locker rooms). * get tough on crime * get tough on immigration without some fake border bill * get tough on drugs * stay strong on environment They would have won so easily.
- techpineapple 1y ago
  I don't think so. I understand what you're trying to say, and I don't think I disagree with the essence of what you're trying to say, but... Why vote for a Democrat to do those things, when overwhelmingly people think Republicans are better on those things? I don't think anyone would have bought it, I don't think the senate or house would support it, and if you wanted people to think Democrats were good on those things, it would take decades of changing to make people think you actually were.
  - almosthere 1y ago
    Because people would have rather had those fixes and stayed with their party and not had the explosive figure of DT. The democrats were SO BAD that many people couldn't stand the extreme leftists policies that even DT was worth voting for. If they had gone more moderate, ditched both Biden and Kamala, we would have a president Newsom right now. Also, as it turns out, Newsom's teen son is a huge Charlie Kirk fan - which has been influencing Newsom.
jampekka 1y ago
Trump is unpopular. He's never gotten majority approval in a Gallup poll for example. https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job...
- techpineapple 1y ago
  He is, and I get this, but I think there's something wrong with the data, something like, MAGA is popular, and even though he's an imperfect steward of MAGA, he's the only valid steward of MAGA. Or, he's unpopular, but he's unpopular with people who will always vote Republican, and popular with people who will only vote Trump, pushing Republican's over the top. But how do you explain Trump being unpopular, and like sports stars doing the Trump dance? https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/sport/trump-dance-sports-spt-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/sport/trump-dance-sports-spt-... Or how do you explain that Republicans underperform when Trump is not on the ballot? Or how do you explain that Trump absolutely annihilated his competition in the primary! This feels like a perfect example of Bezos' "When the data and the anecdotes disagree, believe the anecdotes" Trump won the only poll that matters. Destroyed by most metrics. Who cares what the polls say about him being unpopular?
  - jampekka 1y ago
    MAGA is not popular. Only about 50% of republicans are MAGA and about 30% of the population are republicans. Being generous, MAGA has something like 20% support. Trump's win was hardly a destruction. It was quite slim.
    - techpineapple 1y ago
      Donald Trump beat Nikki Haley 2268 delegates to 97 delegates. 17,015,756 to 4,381,799 popular votes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presiden....

ThrowawayR2 1y ago

Archive link: https://archive.is/HE1fw https://archive.is/HE1fw

mindcrime 1y ago

I'm very much not a Democrat or a Republican, and in many ways I don't give a shit what the Democrats do. But in the vein of "competition is good" and believing that a moderately heathy Democratic party is valuable as a counterweight to oppose the GOP, here's what I'd suggest the Democrats do: 1. Run candidates who are likeable and more importantly, likeable by most Americans. No arrogant "smarter than thou", preachy, judgmental types. Run people who are intelligent and ethical, yes, but with a folksy, down-to-earth side. 2. Drop the radical anti-gun stance and embrace the 2nd Amendment as being just as important as every other part of the Bill of Rights. 3. Stop focusing so much on identity politics. Yes, sure, continue to stand for equality and inclusiveness. But don't make gender politics, trans-politics, race-politics, etc. your lynchpin issues. 4. Reclaim your historical "anti-war party" status. 5. Don't be so abstract. Bring things down to a level that can appeal to the "everyman". Ex: protecting the environment. Don't just talk about "protecting the environment" in the abstract, as though everybody universally values that (even if you believe they should). Instead, talk about protecting the lakes and creeks that people fish in, the gamelands they hunt in, the marshes and bays where so much of our seafood grows, etc. 6. Go more in the direction of the Blue Dog[1] Democrats in general. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Dog_Coalition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Dog_Coalition

alabastervlog 1y ago
> 2. Drop the radical anti-gun stance and embrace the 2nd Amendment as being just as important as every other part of the Bill of Rights. I agree, but also they mostly do and Republican voters still come out to the voting booth because they're sure—seriously, this is a real thing—that Biden's going to take their guns, and they mean literally, ban guns and try to round them all up. > 6. Go more in the direction of the Blue Dog[1] Democrats in general. Here, I cannot follow you. They need to go far more left-populist on the economy and taxation. They're badly out of sync with their own voters on that, in much the same way Republicans were before Trump came along and started campaigning on the exact same messages you'd hear talking to actual Republican voters in diners ("Why don't they just build a wall?", "NAFTA is unfair and we trade too much with China", "the whole world's taking advantage of us", et c.)
- 1y ago

chrsw 1y ago

> Trump was able to convince them that Politics is easy, that strong men can fix everything Similar to Russia and China