20 ms·

wow really? Did soccer also go through a statistical revolution? I don't watch soccer at all and am pretty surprised to hear this. Did all the teams converge on

wow really? Did soccer also go through a statistical revolution? I don't watch soccer at all and am pretty surprised to hear this. Did all the teams converge on a winning solution?

skippyboxedhero 2y ago
completely the opposite because of the structure of soccer (completely different to basketball, it is an invasion sport but statistically very dissimilar), it has completely reversed the ordering of the sport there is significantly more strategic diversity, and teams that were unable to compete ten years ago are now able to compete effectively with wealthier teams (there is no catchup mechanic in soccer unlike US sports, ffp rules have also played a role but in the EPL at least the primary factor has been smaller teams using their budget more effectively) the most recent changes have been: premium for coaches (distinct from managers) has increased significantly and a greater focus on set pieces (but this is going back to the future, twenty years ago EPL had a period where teams did this to level the field...today, they are doing this and it appears to be permanent). it is also worth adding, i would say the majority of clubs that have tried a naive statistical approach have failed. Liverpool tried and are leading but are completely reliant on one player, Arsenal are doing better but reliant on set plays and their recruitment has been poor (they have had a stats team for over ten years at this point), the teams that have done well with stats (Brighton and Brentford) have a hybrid approach (and Brighton is further down the road with this, and have done significantly better...they use non-public resources far better, integrated with sport science, etc.) if stats in soccer is a 90-minute game, we are still at minute 5
- bdangubic 2y ago
  Pep Guardiola 1000000% ruined soccer in similarish ways today's nba is broken
  - skippyboxedhero 2y ago
    he has changed strategy multiple times based on team composition possession-based at Barca, more pragmatic at Bayern, first City teams used wing-backs and insane attacking then acquired more defensive players and went back to suffocating opposition playing out from the back is ludicrous only because teams who are unable to play that way insist on doing it, and the credibility of that strategy as a global minima has already passed (largely due to the issues Burnley had last year and Spurs/Southampton had this year) this year has proved that there are multiple ways to win. imo, the most boring manager is Arteta who does the defensive stuff without (almost) any attacking players (and is, thankfully, failing...the worst thing would be a manager playing like a Serie A side and winning)
  - tuna74 2y ago
    Real Madrid has been the most successful team in the last 10 years and they have zero tactical innovation. Also very fun to watch!
epolanski 2y ago
Pretty much all teams play more or less the same style of building up with the goalkeeper because data shows that even though you suffer more goals it's offset by scoring more.
- tclancy 2y ago
  Well, sort of. https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2025/feb/15/big-no-9s-are-back-high-risk-playing-out-from-the-back-is-at-the-tactical-crossroads https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2025/feb/15/big-no...

wow really? Did soccer also go through a statistical revolution? I don't watch soccer at all and am pretty surprised to hear this. Did all the teams converge on a winning solution?

skippyboxedhero 2y ago

completely the opposite because of the structure of soccer (completely different to basketball, it is an invasion sport but statistically very dissimilar), it has completely reversed the ordering of the sport there is significantly more strategic diversity, and teams that were unable to compete ten years ago are now able to compete effectively with wealthier teams (there is no catchup mechanic in soccer unlike US sports, ffp rules have also played a role but in the EPL at least the primary factor has been smaller teams using their budget more effectively) the most recent changes have been: premium for coaches (distinct from managers) has increased significantly and a greater focus on set pieces (but this is going back to the future, twenty years ago EPL had a period where teams did this to level the field...today, they are doing this and it appears to be permanent). it is also worth adding, i would say the majority of clubs that have tried a naive statistical approach have failed. Liverpool tried and are leading but are completely reliant on one player, Arsenal are doing better but reliant on set plays and their recruitment has been poor (they have had a stats team for over ten years at this point), the teams that have done well with stats (Brighton and Brentford) have a hybrid approach (and Brighton is further down the road with this, and have done significantly better...they use non-public resources far better, integrated with sport science, etc.) if stats in soccer is a 90-minute game, we are still at minute 5

bdangubic 2y ago
Pep Guardiola 1000000% ruined soccer in similarish ways today's nba is broken
- skippyboxedhero 2y ago
  he has changed strategy multiple times based on team composition possession-based at Barca, more pragmatic at Bayern, first City teams used wing-backs and insane attacking then acquired more defensive players and went back to suffocating opposition playing out from the back is ludicrous only because teams who are unable to play that way insist on doing it, and the credibility of that strategy as a global minima has already passed (largely due to the issues Burnley had last year and Spurs/Southampton had this year) this year has proved that there are multiple ways to win. imo, the most boring manager is Arteta who does the defensive stuff without (almost) any attacking players (and is, thankfully, failing...the worst thing would be a manager playing like a Serie A side and winning)
- tuna74 2y ago
  Real Madrid has been the most successful team in the last 10 years and they have zero tactical innovation. Also very fun to watch!

epolanski 2y ago

Pretty much all teams play more or less the same style of building up with the goalkeeper because data shows that even though you suffer more goals it's offset by scoring more.

tclancy 2y ago
Well, sort of. https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2025/feb/15/big-no-9s-are-back-high-risk-playing-out-from-the-back-is-at-the-tactical-crossroads https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2025/feb/15/big-no...