6 ms·

Another fire project idea: show, based on some kind of prediction model that gives 50th, 90th, 99th percentiles (from historical data, perhaps, or perhaps just

by tikkun 2y ago

Another fire project idea: show, based on some kind of prediction model that gives 50th, 90th, 99th percentiles (from historical data, perhaps, or perhaps just from wind/fire speeds), how fast a given fire could reach a specific location. Whenever I've opened watch duty, that's always the question I'm asking. How long might it take to reach [here/there]?

lazide 2y ago
It’s a very dangerous answer to try to give someone, because of how unpredictable and dangerous a wildfire is. Sudden shifts in winds and can have the flames jump (literally) miles in minutes, after sitting calmly for hours. It isn’t theoretical either - it kills professionals too. [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mann_Gulch_fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mann_Gulch_fire], [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Canyon_Fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Canyon_Fire], [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dude_fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dude_fire] for a few examples. Long story short - never turn your back on a wildfire, and try to stay as far away as possible.
- tikkun 2y ago
  Right, they seem highly volatile/variable. The thinking is that showing the 99th percentile / range of possibilities would cover that, if it's based on historical data - does that seem right to you or no, and if not why not?
  - lazide 2y ago
    It would be like if someone you never met came up to you and held a revolver to your head, and told you they were going to play Russian roulette. If they told you the 99% percentile odds of the next trigger pull, would it be okay to stay if you thought you liked the odds? And if you were silly enough to believe him, who would be to blame if he was wrong? Oh, here are some more [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarnell_Hill_Fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarnell_Hill_Fire]. Oh and [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Griffith_Park_fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Griffith_Park_fire]. And [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackwater_Fire_of_1937 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackwater_Fire_of_1937] There is a reason why firefighters are considered to be one of the most heroic professionals. And some more (not all related to wildfires though) [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_deadliest_firefighter_disasters_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_deadliest_firefi...]
    - lostlogin 2y ago
      Prisoners one day, hero firefighters earning a dollar an hour the next. https://www.businessinsider.com/california-fire-inmate-firefighters-battle-blazes-earn-27-day-danger-2025-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/california-fire-inmate-firef...
  - gamblor956 2y ago
    The authorities already do the type of broad analysis you're suggesting. That's how they generate the evacuation maps. If you mean a more specific analysis: there's no way to do that with a level of detail or accuracy that would be relevant to individual decision-making. There are simply too many variables in the air, in the fuel, and even in the fire itself.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

by tikkun 2y ago

lazide 2y ago

It’s a very dangerous answer to try to give someone, because of how unpredictable and dangerous a wildfire is. Sudden shifts in winds and can have the flames jump (literally) miles in minutes, after sitting calmly for hours. It isn’t theoretical either - it kills professionals too. [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mann_Gulch_fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mann_Gulch_fire], [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Canyon_Fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Canyon_Fire], [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dude_fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dude_fire] for a few examples. Long story short - never turn your back on a wildfire, and try to stay as far away as possible.

tikkun 2y ago
Right, they seem highly volatile/variable. The thinking is that showing the 99th percentile / range of possibilities would cover that, if it's based on historical data - does that seem right to you or no, and if not why not?
- lazide 2y ago
  It would be like if someone you never met came up to you and held a revolver to your head, and told you they were going to play Russian roulette. If they told you the 99% percentile odds of the next trigger pull, would it be okay to stay if you thought you liked the odds? And if you were silly enough to believe him, who would be to blame if he was wrong? Oh, here are some more [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarnell_Hill_Fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarnell_Hill_Fire]. Oh and [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Griffith_Park_fire https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Griffith_Park_fire]. And [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackwater_Fire_of_1937 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackwater_Fire_of_1937] There is a reason why firefighters are considered to be one of the most heroic professionals. And some more (not all related to wildfires though) [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_deadliest_firefighter_disasters_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_deadliest_firefi...]
  - lostlogin 2y ago
    Prisoners one day, hero firefighters earning a dollar an hour the next. https://www.businessinsider.com/california-fire-inmate-firefighters-battle-blazes-earn-27-day-danger-2025-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/california-fire-inmate-firef...
- gamblor956 2y ago
  The authorities already do the type of broad analysis you're suggesting. That's how they generate the evacuation maps. If you mean a more specific analysis: there's no way to do that with a level of detail or accuracy that would be relevant to individual decision-making. There are simply too many variables in the air, in the fuel, and even in the fire itself.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]