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It shouldn’t be surprising that a country with a war economy has a higher first derivative at producing material, the question of import is 1. What is the diff
by fardo 2y ago
It shouldn’t be surprising that a country with a war economy has a higher first derivative at producing material, the question of import is
1. What is the difference between absolute quantities comparing against all relevant players,
2. How long would it take to bridge the gap at current production rates, and
3. Can that rate of production be sustained long enough for it to alter any fundamentals?
The point to rebut isn’t that Russia is making more, it’s whether they can continue to do so ongoingly before Ukrainian advances, regime falter or economic collapse, US/China step-in, or internal unrest will dramatically weaken or make the current Russian negotiating position untenable.
- wiseowise 2y agoAll of this is irrelevant if Ukraine crumbles first.
- TheAlchemist 2y agoSame goes for Russia, and is all seems pretty relevant. The article seem to indicate that it's much more sustainable for the West than for Russia.
- wiseowise 2y agoIt’s not sustainable for Ukraine.
- fooker 2y agoNATO is ensuring it’s just about sustainable.
- lukan 2y agoYes, by pushing to reduce the drafting age, which the Ukrainian don't want to, because someone needs to raise families and Ukraine has a way lower population, while Putin brings in north koreans already. And can also escalate by general mobilisation at some point if cornered. So I don't see the outcome as clear.
- aguaviva 2y agoIt's not sustainable for -either- side. Both sides are aching (very badly) for this thing to be over, or at least taken off the stove. One can quibble further as to the details -- which are a matter of metrics, wildcards, politics. And (as recent events have shown) there are still many cards to be played. But that's the fundamental equation we need to keep in mind.
- sabbaticaldev 2y agothe article is not the reality tho
- sincerecook 2y agoOngoingly is not a word.
- tim333 2y agoOED has it https://www.oed.com/dictionary/ongoingly_adv?tl=true https://www.oed.com/dictionary/ongoingly_adv?tl=true
- sincerecook 2y agoHave you ever in your life heard someone say the word ongoingly?
- gonzo 2y agoit shows up in papers from a decade ago. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Ongoingly-redesigning-metacognitive-questionnaires-Fernández-Ribas/54d54f828a009b9a7097eccad4cb60ea135fcfa7 https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Ongoingly-redesigning-... I agree that it's not in common use.
- tim333 2y agoNo but I'm in favour of word inventability and extensionabilityization.
- netsharc 2y agoI see the meaning of that word is "To continue reading, please sign in or purchase a subscription."...
- Etherlord87 2y agoLove the "first derivative" view! One can take a snapshot of a good day, but if russia really was producing more weapons than USA + NATO for a prolonged time, having also more people, Ukraine would fall a long time ago. It didn't. As we say in Poland "paper will accept everything". And russia is known for shameless propaganda.
- xg15 2y agoSo far, Russia is still making gains on the battlefield though, not Ukraine. At some point, that momentum would have to reverse. Also, I don't think it's an "until" about China stepping in, they seem to be squarely on Russia's side, just presenting themselves slightly more moderate in public to appear suitable as a mediator. (Maybe sort of like the US does with Israel) Finally, there is BRICS and some massive shifts of attitude in Africa that seem to work in Russia's favor.
- Etherlord87 2y ago> So far, Russia is still making gains on the battlefield though, not Ukraine. This is again first derivative. Russia annexed Crimea, sent unofficial troops to Donbas, in 2022 moved rapidly and captured a lot of territory... But later was pushed back severely. And after that, it was gaining terrain in a truly snail pace. BTW India and China are in an ongoing border conflict, the hostilities don't end there, with India banning many Chinese apps for example. They're nowhere near as united as EU or NATO, it's more like the Visegrád Group.
- programjames 2y agoDo Americans have the technical expertise for a higher curvature? The American primary/secondary schooling system sucks, and most of the top STEM students at university are not interested in working for the military.