8 ms·

> low unemployment I feel that this is pretty well established as a misleading metric https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0609/what-the-unemployment-ra

> low unemployment I feel that this is pretty well established as a misleading metric https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0609/what-the-unemployment-rate-doesnt-tell-us.aspx https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0609/what-the-un... > strong consumer spending how does this track against consumer debt? > average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation but has it caught up? https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/wage-to-inflation-index/#bankrate-s-2024-wage-to-inflation-index https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/wage-to-inf... > I'd say the majority is doing better than most years most years being the past 2 or 3? because I feel like we were all doing a lot better before 2020

gruez 2y ago
>I feel that this is pretty well established as a misleading metric https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0609/what-the-un https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0609/what-the-un... I fail to see how it's "misleading". U3 doesn't include people who don't want a job. That seems... fine? If you don't want a job, and don't have a job, why should you be factored into the health of the labor market? Isn't it more misleading to lump people who want a job but can't find a job, with people who don't want a job and aren't working? >but has it caught up? https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/wage-to-inf https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/wage-to-inf... The linked article says: >Source: Bankrate's Wage To Inflation Index using the Department of Labor's employment cost index (ECI) and consumer price index (CPI) Using BLS's weekly wage data adjusted by CPI gets the opposite conclusion, so my guess is that there's something funky going on with the employment cost index. For one, it includes benefits, so if health insurance costs go down, then "average income" (as computed by bankrate's index) will go down, even if your take-home is the same. At best, the only thing you can conclude from that is "employers' spending on employees is rising slower than inflation", which is slightly different than "employees' incomes are rising slower than inflation". https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
sangnoir 2y ago
> but has it caught up? Which year is your baseline, and why?
epistasis 2y ago
Well the facts don't care about your feelings. A lot of people seem to want to feel bad about the economy and are searching high and low for reasons to feel that way. Most of it comes down to politics: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/partisan-perceptions-perk-up-again-in-economic-sentiment https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-comm...
- webdood90 2y ago
  is your buying power the same as it was in 2020? did your wages increase since then to match what it was in 2020? because I know mine didn't and I've not heard of anyone, or seen any data, that says otherwise. 100k in 2020 is 120k today https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ do I need to spell it out for you? you are delusional if you think there is not concrete evidence that everyone's making less and spending more
  - epistasis 2y ago
    My wages have increased 30% since 2020, exceeding the 22% inflation I got from that calculator. The data shows that far more people are in my situation than in your situation. Do I need to spell it out for you? People are acting like they are doing better in the numbers, responding on polls that they are doing better, but they all think everyone else is doing bad or the economy in general is doing bad. Can you imagine how bad it would be if our actual economy did as poorly as the rest of the world? We went through a mismanaged global pandemic, and came out smelling roses when it comes to the US's economy. We are in a fantastic position for world domination. China and Europe shat the bed. India is up and coming and may be an economic rival, but they are not there yet. If you think this economy is bad, try going back to 2008. To 1992. So please, yes, spell it out for me. The facts do not care about your feelings, no matter how strongly you have your feelings, or who told you to have the feelings and to feel helpless.
    - webdood90 2y ago
      > My wages have increased 30% since 2020, exceeding the 22% inflation I got from that calculator. I don't believe you nobody gets a 30% adjustment without taking a new job or a promotion, and if you did that then it defeats the point of this discussion
kelnos 2y ago
> how does this track against consumer debt? It tracks pretty much as one would expect had the pandemic not happened, following a well-established longer-term trend: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG > I feel like we were all doing a lot better before 2020 There we go again, going by "feelings" rather than the data.
- webdood90 2y ago
  > There we go again, going by "feelings" rather than the data. do you want to discuss the point or just be a snarky troll about it?

gruez 2y ago

>I feel that this is pretty well established as a misleading metric https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0609/what-the-un https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0609/what-the-un... I fail to see how it's "misleading". U3 doesn't include people who don't want a job. That seems... fine? If you don't want a job, and don't have a job, why should you be factored into the health of the labor market? Isn't it more misleading to lump people who want a job but can't find a job, with people who don't want a job and aren't working? >but has it caught up? https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/wage-to-inf https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/wage-to-inf... The linked article says: >Source: Bankrate's Wage To Inflation Index using the Department of Labor's employment cost index (ECI) and consumer price index (CPI) Using BLS's weekly wage data adjusted by CPI gets the opposite conclusion, so my guess is that there's something funky going on with the employment cost index. For one, it includes benefits, so if health insurance costs go down, then "average income" (as computed by bankrate's index) will go down, even if your take-home is the same. At best, the only thing you can conclude from that is "employers' spending on employees is rising slower than inflation", which is slightly different than "employees' incomes are rising slower than inflation". https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

sangnoir 2y ago

> but has it caught up? Which year is your baseline, and why?

epistasis 2y ago

Well the facts don't care about your feelings. A lot of people seem to want to feel bad about the economy and are searching high and low for reasons to feel that way. Most of it comes down to politics: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/partisan-perceptions-perk-up-again-in-economic-sentiment https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-comm...

webdood90 2y ago
is your buying power the same as it was in 2020? did your wages increase since then to match what it was in 2020? because I know mine didn't and I've not heard of anyone, or seen any data, that says otherwise. 100k in 2020 is 120k today https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ do I need to spell it out for you? you are delusional if you think there is not concrete evidence that everyone's making less and spending more
- epistasis 2y ago
  My wages have increased 30% since 2020, exceeding the 22% inflation I got from that calculator. The data shows that far more people are in my situation than in your situation. Do I need to spell it out for you? People are acting like they are doing better in the numbers, responding on polls that they are doing better, but they all think everyone else is doing bad or the economy in general is doing bad. Can you imagine how bad it would be if our actual economy did as poorly as the rest of the world? We went through a mismanaged global pandemic, and came out smelling roses when it comes to the US's economy. We are in a fantastic position for world domination. China and Europe shat the bed. India is up and coming and may be an economic rival, but they are not there yet. If you think this economy is bad, try going back to 2008. To 1992. So please, yes, spell it out for me. The facts do not care about your feelings, no matter how strongly you have your feelings, or who told you to have the feelings and to feel helpless.
  - webdood90 2y ago
    > My wages have increased 30% since 2020, exceeding the 22% inflation I got from that calculator. I don't believe you nobody gets a 30% adjustment without taking a new job or a promotion, and if you did that then it defeats the point of this discussion

kelnos 2y ago

> how does this track against consumer debt? It tracks pretty much as one would expect had the pandemic not happened, following a well-established longer-term trend: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG > I feel like we were all doing a lot better before 2020 There we go again, going by "feelings" rather than the data.

webdood90 2y ago
> There we go again, going by "feelings" rather than the data. do you want to discuss the point or just be a snarky troll about it?