That's no guarantee that AI continues advancing at the same pace, and no one has been arguing against overall technological progress slowing Refining technolog

That's no guarantee that AI continues advancing at the same pace, and no one has been arguing against overall technological progress slowing Refining technology is easier than the original breakthrough, but it doesn't usually lead to a great leap forward. LLMs were the result of breakthroughs, but refining them isn't guaranteed to lead to AGI. It's not guaranteed (or likely) to improve at an exponential rate.