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"AI reminds me of the internet in 1999." -- Peter Thiel[1] [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYRunzR9fbk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYRunzR9fbk

by tazu 2y ago

ramesh31 2y ago
>AI reminds me of the internet in 1999." -- Peter Thiel[1] It just feels like we're still in the pre-Navigator days though, circa '94. All of this complex orchestration work needs to be baked into a single model. I don't want to learn how to implement a multimodal agent system. I want to tell something what to do and have it do it for me perfectly with no more interaction than a simple prompt. Fortunately this is just a software engineering problem now, not a CS one.
- tmpz22 2y ago
  The UI is also trash for many workflows. Copy paste? Little comment based autocomplete? We can't do better then that at all?
  - fragmede 2y ago
    Aider and Openinterpreter have a better UX than using ChatGPT via a website.
- kylecazar 2y ago
  I agree completely. The companies I'm currently most excited about are all working on making some sort of E2E platform, weaving together all of the component pieces into a cohesive whole.
threeseed 2y ago
As someone who remembers that time very well I disagree. Smartphones followed a similar path to the internet i.e. completely new paradigm, that had immediate benefit but needed technology to improve to become widely adopted. But where the roadmaps to improve these technologies were clear and well defined. AI is far more akin to nuclear fusion where each step along the way will require major scientific breakthroughs. And where it's not clear how to get this grand AGI end-game. Especially as OpenAI has said advancements depend on compute capacity that we simply don't have. [1] https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/ https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/
- bb88 2y ago
  I think it's more like nuclear fission, frankly. I don't think the major breakthroughs will be as difficult to achieve, but we'll have a trail of nasty side effects and bad actors that will be left in its wake. In 2020 I never thought an AI would code for me. And now it turns out, it's pretty good. But AI Slop is pretty much a toxic mess.
- CSMastermind 2y ago
  Even with their current capabilities, these AI systems will dramatically improve productivity. We could have a 20-year AI 'winter' with no new advancements, and they'd still be a big deal. The thing is that it will take years to integrate them into existing domains and workflows. Honestly I think the most relevant comparison is the rise of desktop computers themselves. Suddenly paper-based processes had to become electronic and in some cases that took 40 years.
  - tbrownaw 2y ago
    > Suddenly paper-based processes had to become electronic and in some cases that took 40 years. "Took", past tense?
  - threeseed 2y ago
    Except we've had AI systems for a while now and it hasn't meaningfully impacted productivity across the economy. Maybe in select pockets e.g. knowledge workers and even then it's highly debatable. You compare this to the internet or smartphones and they have been transformative across every aspect of society. And as someone who works for a bank which is heavily exploring LLMs there is no complexity in integrating them into existing workflows. The issue is that (a) risk of privacy/security being compromised through prompt exploits and (b) risk of reputational damage if the prompt is biased or hallucinates. Issues that may well be inherent to all transformer based models.
    - dkrich 2y ago
      The other main difference that I can’t get past is that the Internet and cell phone were so obviously useful to a layman that you didn’t really have to explain the value proposition. The ability to type an email for instance, and send it instantly to someone on the other side of the planet for free was something that was in such contrast to the tools of the time it can’t really be understood by someone who didn’t live through that period. AI to me is really hyped up by some very highly regarded CEOs with strong track records in other domains and tech enthusiasts who seem hell bent on being able to look back and say they called the next Industrial Revolution. In short everyone thinks they’re the counter to Paul Krugman saying the internet would be as useful as the fax machine. Credulity levels are off the charts. It’s gotten to the point where skeptics are automatically assumed to be wrong. But what’s missing is the obvious amazement that should come to an ordinary person and frankly I still don’t see most people naturally gravitating to these tools. Perhaps that could be explained by how amazingly fast technology has advanced in recent years but then that in and of itself seems to call into question whether this technology that’s being called AI is truly revolutionary when compared to what’s already available.
xyst 2y ago
[flagged]
blurty 2y ago
[dead]
yumraj 2y ago
Wasn’t that followed by a dot-com bubble burst, and then things actually started taking shape. So are we expecting a ai bubble burst as well?

"AI reminds me of the internet in 1999." -- Peter Thiel[1] [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYRunzR9fbk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYRunzR9fbk

by tazu 2y ago

"AI reminds me of the internet in 1999." -- Peter Thiel[1] [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYRunzR9fbk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYRunzR9fbk

ramesh31 2y ago

>AI reminds me of the internet in 1999." -- Peter Thiel[1] It just feels like we're still in the pre-Navigator days though, circa '94. All of this complex orchestration work needs to be baked into a single model. I don't want to learn how to implement a multimodal agent system. I want to tell something what to do and have it do it for me perfectly with no more interaction than a simple prompt. Fortunately this is just a software engineering problem now, not a CS one.

tmpz22 2y ago
The UI is also trash for many workflows. Copy paste? Little comment based autocomplete? We can't do better then that at all?
- fragmede 2y ago
  Aider and Openinterpreter have a better UX than using ChatGPT via a website.
kylecazar 2y ago
I agree completely. The companies I'm currently most excited about are all working on making some sort of E2E platform, weaving together all of the component pieces into a cohesive whole.

threeseed 2y ago

As someone who remembers that time very well I disagree. Smartphones followed a similar path to the internet i.e. completely new paradigm, that had immediate benefit but needed technology to improve to become widely adopted. But where the roadmaps to improve these technologies were clear and well defined. AI is far more akin to nuclear fusion where each step along the way will require major scientific breakthroughs. And where it's not clear how to get this grand AGI end-game. Especially as OpenAI has said advancements depend on compute capacity that we simply don't have. [1] https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/ https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/

bb88 2y ago
I think it's more like nuclear fission, frankly. I don't think the major breakthroughs will be as difficult to achieve, but we'll have a trail of nasty side effects and bad actors that will be left in its wake. In 2020 I never thought an AI would code for me. And now it turns out, it's pretty good. But AI Slop is pretty much a toxic mess.
CSMastermind 2y ago
Even with their current capabilities, these AI systems will dramatically improve productivity. We could have a 20-year AI 'winter' with no new advancements, and they'd still be a big deal. The thing is that it will take years to integrate them into existing domains and workflows. Honestly I think the most relevant comparison is the rise of desktop computers themselves. Suddenly paper-based processes had to become electronic and in some cases that took 40 years.
- tbrownaw 2y ago
  > Suddenly paper-based processes had to become electronic and in some cases that took 40 years. "Took", past tense?
- threeseed 2y ago
  Except we've had AI systems for a while now and it hasn't meaningfully impacted productivity across the economy. Maybe in select pockets e.g. knowledge workers and even then it's highly debatable. You compare this to the internet or smartphones and they have been transformative across every aspect of society. And as someone who works for a bank which is heavily exploring LLMs there is no complexity in integrating them into existing workflows. The issue is that (a) risk of privacy/security being compromised through prompt exploits and (b) risk of reputational damage if the prompt is biased or hallucinates. Issues that may well be inherent to all transformer based models.
  - dkrich 2y ago
    The other main difference that I can’t get past is that the Internet and cell phone were so obviously useful to a layman that you didn’t really have to explain the value proposition. The ability to type an email for instance, and send it instantly to someone on the other side of the planet for free was something that was in such contrast to the tools of the time it can’t really be understood by someone who didn’t live through that period. AI to me is really hyped up by some very highly regarded CEOs with strong track records in other domains and tech enthusiasts who seem hell bent on being able to look back and say they called the next Industrial Revolution. In short everyone thinks they’re the counter to Paul Krugman saying the internet would be as useful as the fax machine. Credulity levels are off the charts. It’s gotten to the point where skeptics are automatically assumed to be wrong. But what’s missing is the obvious amazement that should come to an ordinary person and frankly I still don’t see most people naturally gravitating to these tools. Perhaps that could be explained by how amazingly fast technology has advanced in recent years but then that in and of itself seems to call into question whether this technology that’s being called AI is truly revolutionary when compared to what’s already available.

xyst 2y ago

[flagged]

blurty 2y ago

[dead]

yumraj 2y ago

Wasn’t that followed by a dot-com bubble burst, and then things actually started taking shape. So are we expecting a ai bubble burst as well?