6 ms·

As far as I can see, betting markets moved very slightly in favour of Democrats winning on this verdict.

slater 2y ago
Got a link for that? I'm not into betting/betting sites, all I get is old articles about Mr. Orange being the favorite still
- chr-s 2y ago
  Check out the 24h chart on https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-t... The roughly 50-45 Trump-Biden favor briefly flipped to 48-50 but now looks to be reverting to the mean.
  - richrichie 2y ago
    51/35 now https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
    - mcphage 2y ago
      I’m sorry, do those odds claim that Obama has an almost 4% chance of becoming president?
      - bjt1997 2y ago
        I think it is Michelle Obama. That's what the "market" thinks. You are welcome to "arbitrage" it with some $! Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). Plus DNC nomination is a super pac driven process. Math might just compute.
        senordevnyc 2y ago
        Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). So does Trump, who is arguably in worse health, even if slightly younger.
        mcphage 2y ago
        > Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). Plus DNC nomination is a super pac driven process. Math might just compute. So the odds of Biden dying, times the odds of Michelle Obama wanting to run, times the odds of the DNC not picking Kamala Harris—the current VP, times the odds of Michelle Obama actually winning, might work out to 4%? ...uh... I don't even know what to say about that.
        bjt1997 2y ago
        You can just put money where your mouth is. Some betting sites offer contracts you can buy and sell.
        mcphage 2y ago
        Hmm, yes, getting into financial contracts with people who live in cloud cuckoo land, for a few percentage points that get eaten up by the site itself seems like a good idea.
        bjt1997 2y ago
        Correct attitude. Stay away from financial contracts.
      - laverya 2y ago
        Michelle Obama, yes.
        mcphage 2y ago
        That's... fascinating.
  - church_ 2y ago
    [dead]
tim333 2y ago
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election/winner https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presiden... has Trump in the lead. Betfair have Trump 1:1, Biden 6:4 on Betfair.

Got a link for that? I'm not into betting/betting sites, all I get is old articles about Mr. Orange being the favorite still

chr-s 2y ago
Check out the 24h chart on https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-t... The roughly 50-45 Trump-Biden favor briefly flipped to 48-50 but now looks to be reverting to the mean.
- richrichie 2y ago
  51/35 now https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
  - mcphage 2y ago
    I’m sorry, do those odds claim that Obama has an almost 4% chance of becoming president?
    - bjt1997 2y ago
      I think it is Michelle Obama. That's what the "market" thinks. You are welcome to "arbitrage" it with some $! Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). Plus DNC nomination is a super pac driven process. Math might just compute.
      - senordevnyc 2y ago
        Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). So does Trump, who is arguably in worse health, even if slightly younger.
      - mcphage 2y ago
        > Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). Plus DNC nomination is a super pac driven process. Math might just compute. So the odds of Biden dying, times the odds of Michelle Obama wanting to run, times the odds of the DNC not picking Kamala Harris—the current VP, times the odds of Michelle Obama actually winning, might work out to 4%? ...uh... I don't even know what to say about that.
        bjt1997 2y ago
        You can just put money where your mouth is. Some betting sites offer contracts you can buy and sell.
        mcphage 2y ago
        Hmm, yes, getting into financial contracts with people who live in cloud cuckoo land, for a few percentage points that get eaten up by the site itself seems like a good idea.
        bjt1997 2y ago
        Correct attitude. Stay away from financial contracts.
    - laverya 2y ago
      Michelle Obama, yes.
      - mcphage 2y ago
        That's... fascinating.
- church_ 2y ago
  [dead]

tim333 2y ago

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election/winner https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presiden... has Trump in the lead. Betfair have Trump 1:1, Biden 6:4 on Betfair.