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Tesla retreats from one-piece "gigacasting" manufacturing process
- vspecialgenius 2y ago[flagged]
- rootusrootus 2y agoNo surprise, Elon seems to be cutting to the bone right now. Maybe to juice the stock price? But it does not seem like Tesla is investing in the future right now. On the contrary, I feel like their future looks a little bleak after the most recent cuts.
- chasd00 2y agoAlso, I get the feeling Elon's trip to China and the deal he made was out of desperation. Watch for self-driving technology, that's bug for bug identical to Tesla's, to start showing up in the Chinese EVs.
- toomuchtodo 2y agoTesla is in a valuation trap. Elon can only continue operating as he has if Tesla is valued as “not a car company.” AI, robotaxi, whatever. They are running out of runway from a valuation perspective, although Tesla would be fine going through Chapter 11 if needed. Would continue as a going concern and not be parted out imho. But Elon’s wings would melt and he’d fall back to Earth.
- chefkd 2y agoDo you really think Tesla is going bankrupt? 90 billion in revenue, 10 billion in profit seems healthy? In terms of market share Tesla sold more than Chevrolet, Ford and Volkswagen combined. Granted idk much about valuations just curious what people look at is it something to do with the stock price itself?
- supportengineer 2y agoThey won't sustain 90 billion in revenue going forward, based on Elon's antics, including the recent mass layoffs.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- nwiswell 2y agoRight, it's just the stock price. The health of the underlying company is a different matter. From a corporate financials perspective, Tesla is a very healthy company: low debt, high profit. Their stock does seem to be at risk of dramatic re-pricing, and that can have knock-on effects in the long run (harder to use stock as compensation, high performers with unvested grants may leave, etc). But certainly bankruptcy does not seem to be in the cards.
- toomuchtodo 2y agoAnything is possible when an enterprise is being operated in a careless fashion. I would like to think someone would stop the bleeding before it got to that, but who knows! I think Tesla will be fine was my point, but Elon's Tesla wealth and control is in peril. (disclosure: early TSLA investor, no current exposure because I like to sleep at night now)
- chefkd 2y agoThat's so cool if it isn't weird to ask are there any current early stage companies you think have the potential to become like Tesla? Asking for a friend :)
- toomuchtodo 2y agoNot weird, fair question. I think we're past the point of early stage investment for electric mobility based on adoption s-curve concept. You'd be chasing copycats into a market with insane capital requirements, with teams who are not as motivated as who has been successful so far. Tesla, BYD, US legacy auto combined are already moving with speed. If you're asking very broadly "where would you invest early stage today to realize explosive investment growth due to the size or value of the total addressable market," I don't have a specific company or domain answer to that. Speculative investments have a domain expertise component (know what you're investing in), a timing component (being early or late is the same as being wrong, see Webvan circa 1996-2001 vs Amazon), and a luck component (you can do everything right and the trade moves against you through no fault of your own). Charlie Munger once said: “You’re looking for a mispriced gamble. That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.” ... “You should remember that good ideas are rare — when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.” So, to maximize success, know how to spot opportunity when it crosses your path, maximize those opportunities, and maximize exposure at the opportunity. Being lucky doesn't hurt. Good luck. (not investing advice, i am just an internet rando)
- vizzier 2y agoThe craziest part to me of this idea of their valuation is being a tech company not a car is that the stock jumped 20% on ... news that they're going to release an affordable car? None of it makes any sense.
- toomuchtodo 2y agoJumped on the China data sharing deal with Baidu for FSD. https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-tesla-agree-mapping-deal-fsd-china-sources-say-2024-04-29/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-tesla-agree-mapping...
- Workaccount2 2y agoWhich is insane, because the market priced that news as being a ~$100 billion in value. The people trading Tesla are so far removed from reality its scary.
- nickfromseattle 2y agoDid he leverage any of his Tesla stock to buy Twitter?
- pclmulqdq 2y agoYes. And his Tesla stock was reportedly very heavily leveraged already, which made the banks a bit hesitant.
- Theodores 2y agoI don't feel that Europe or the USA is where any growth can come from, aside for Cybertruck, which is North America only. Anyone middle class would have had one by now and poor people are not customers. In China they are getting crowded out by brands that better understand the local market, for example rear leg room at the cost of vehicle length/handling. They also have lots of self driving solutions that have no chance of making it to the West any time soon. Chinese people also like Chinese brands. American does not mean better. The honeymoon for Western brands is over. With PCs, why would a sensible Chinese person buy some HP or Dell thing when Huawei have that extra touch of quality to them at a better price? Tesla along with GM's Buick, VW and the others making e-cars have this problem.
- m463 2y agoI don't feel that Europe or the USA is where any growth can come from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.#Timeline_of_production_and_sales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.#Timelin... I think they're growing just fine. looking at the quarterly breakdown, sales stall every so often, but pick up later. Sort of like California real estate prices. People always say it can't go on, but it does.
- jamesy0ung 2y agoHe was actually booked to go to India to announce a new factory, but he cancelled it at last minute to go to China [1]. [1] https://m.economictimes.com/industry/renewables/why-elon-musk-chose-to-go-to-china-rather-than-visit-india/amp_articleshow/109715183.cms https://m.economictimes.com/industry/renewables/why-elon-mus...
- mensetmanusman 2y agoYou’re not surprised that the high pressure materials limitations were discovered at these particular pressures?
- throwaway5959 2y agoHis $55 billion pay package would pay $100k per year for the 14k employees he just laid off for the next 40 years. I’m surprised the stock is still north of $100.
- pclmulqdq 2y agoThey have produced about 5 million cars total, so his desired pay package is $10,000 per car.
- Workaccount2 2y agoPublic CEO compensation is financed by shareholders, not by the company. His Tesla salary is likely zero. You would need to convince the shareholders to give stock compensation to the employees and convince the employees to be paid in stock instead of dollars.
- pclmulqdq 2y agoThis is not correct, although there is a distinction between cash compensation and shares/options. While the money doesn't come out of Tesla's bank account, stock-based compensation goes down on the balance sheet as a loss, exactly as if it were cash. Startup people are primed to think that cash accounting is what's actually important for a company in terms of doing things, going bankrupt, etc. It largely is for startups. For large companies, however, it's actually the opposite: cash accounting is a sort of boring task left to the accounting department, whose job is usually to keep a minimum amount of cash lying around, and your balance sheets and income statements are actually what determines your access to business opportunities.
- Workaccount2 2y ago>While the money doesn't come out of Tesla's bank account So whats your point? Because regular employee pay sure as shit does. You said it's incorrect, and then in the next sentence stated how it is correct. Yes, Tesla has shares on it's balance sheet. Yes, giving out those shares is a loss in assets. But doing mark-to-market and calling it cash is a bit of woo-woo because no, shares are not cash and they don't become cash until shareholders hand over that cash. Here is a thought experiment: Tomorrow investors just decide to stop buying Tesla stock, and the price goes to zero. Mass brain control or something. The share price just sits at zero. No buy orders anywhere. The company still sells cars. They still have cash coming in. They still can pay suppliers and pay employees. There is profit and everything. The people paid with shares though are screwed. Their compensation is zero. Why is it zero? Because shareholders aren't giving their cash for shares.
- advisedwang 2y agoThe term "gigacasting" is just made up by Tesla right? It's just casting? The news uncritically letting a company just invent a new branded term for an existing technology and parroting it in their reports comes across as very weak journalism. Honestly it means I have no trust that the journalist is bringing any insight/analysis/critical reading etc.
- atoav 2y agoGigacasting is regular old casting but in a Gigafactory™. Just like gigafloorwiping or gigadustbinemptying.
- ripjaygn 2y agoIt's not just casting. Right there in the second paragraph of the TFA: > Tesla has been a leader in gigacasting, a cutting-edge technique that uses huge presses with thousands of tons of clamping pressure to die-cast large sections of the car’s underbody. On a typical vehicle, the underbody can consist of hundreds of individual parts. Also, other car companies are copying Tesla. > Japan > In June 2023 Toyota announced that it was adopting casting technology for its electric vehicles. > In 2023 Japanese auto parts supplier Ryobi announced plans to cast large electric-vehicle body parts and expects to reduce car body manufacturing costs by 20%. > Volvo > By November 2023, orders had been placed for two 9000-tonnes-force Giga Press machines for a new Volvo electric vehicle factory at Košice, Slovakia.
- neuralRiot 2y agoIf Tesla has been using the same design since 2017 with the stamping process, probably would run the same “gigacast” design until year 2100 to recoup the setup costs.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- PinguTS 2y agoFunfact: it is not invention by Tesla and it is not that other OEM are copying. It is an Italian company, that provides that equipment. It would be like, TSMC would branding a new technology while ASML is actually doing the shit.
- markrote 2y agoTesla is not cutting back on gigacasting; it's just sticking to its current model approach, which is one front gigacast and one rear gigacast. They've talked about some future vehicle platform using a single gigacast, but I never heard them talk about this as a sure thing, or as replacing the manner their current vehicles are produced. Their "model 2" was always described as using the "unboxed" approach, which to me would be incompatible with the single massive gigacast approach from the beginning.
- PinguTS 2y agoYou didn't read the article in its entirety?
- omgwtfbyobbq 2y agoI think the article is a bit thin. They're referencing their own article from last year, which cites anonymous sources, and this article also cites anonymous sources (the same anonymous sources, different, a mix?). It may or may not be accurate. The only thing I recall Tesla saying about their next car is using an unboxed assembly method, and I believe they said they may scale that back during the last investor call. https://www.reuters.com/technology/gigacasting-20-tesla-reinvents-carmaking-with-quiet-breakthrough-2023-09-14/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/gigacasting-20-tesla-rein...
- wmf 2y agoInnovation requires failed experiments. It sounds like they found the practical boundary for casting car bodies.
- neuralRiot 2y agoProbably Elon’s idea.”If it works for Hot wheels why it wouldn’t for us?”
- DennisP 2y agoAccording to Isaacson's biography, that's exactly where the idea came from, Hotwheels and all. Even if they don't manage it for the whole car, it does seem to have worked out for the front and back castings, since other companies have started working on the same thing.
- readthenotes1 2y agoThis reminds me of the lieutenant Leary series by David Drake. One of the minor plot points is the ease of repairability for his small ship which is made up of several hull pieces versus the unibody of the ships made by his own navy. (He acquired his ship by stealing from an enemy)
- mrcode007 2y agoFwiw TSLA is not breaking new ground here and merely follows in the footsteps of the 1950s technology from USAF: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Press_Program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Press_Program https://youtu.be/iZ50nZU3oG8?si=FD2PFEsRmBFtNshR https://youtu.be/iZ50nZU3oG8?si=FD2PFEsRmBFtNshR
- searealist 2y agoYou don't see the difference between using a technology for tens of million dollar aircraft and $35k mass produced cars?
- mrcode007 2y agoMetal casting is an established technology in use for decades ,including in automotive industry, and general part making. It has a long history dating back to 1500s; this is how coins are made… https://macrodynepress.com/hydraulic-presses/automotive-industry/ https://macrodynepress.com/hydraulic-presses/automotive-indu...
- searealist 2y agoCasting coins doesn't require thousands of tons of pressure.
- mrcode007 2y agoIt’s the same principle just scaled up. What are we talking about here? This is not some ground breaking tech. It just got a Tesla PR spin. https://youtu.be/hpgK51w6uhk?si=LfornxzEdBwvJytY https://youtu.be/hpgK51w6uhk?si=LfornxzEdBwvJytY
- m463 2y agoI wonder if the robotaxi push is part of this. Back when the Ford Crown Victoria was still around, there were basically two bodies - the normal one, and a long wheelbase version for taxi service. The extra room went to taxi customers who needed more room to enter/exit and sit. A front and back casting would allow more passenger space to be inserted between if there was a taxi. or a loooooong wheelbase for a str333tch limo
- OhNoNotAgain_99 2y ago[dead]