6 ms·

If the US didn't do this, the world would be worse off, no? (Not sure: wondering.)

• whimsicalism 3y ago
  Nobody has the counterfactual answer to this. Proponents will speak to deterrence and preservation of ‘liberty’/non-despotism, opponents will speak to the very real death toll inflicted by these weapons.
  • bmer 3y ago
    Well, what do the prediction markets think? Markets are unable to lie (as they are deeply/intrinsically connected to reality).
    • shkkmo 3y ago
      That's ridiculous, markets can absolutely "lie". Markets are aggregates of particpant sentiment and are wrong if that sentiment is wrong. One clear example is when a company is committing fraud that boosts their stock price. Human beings, in aggregate, tend to be pretty good at predicting some things that individual humans can't (classic examples being number of objects in a jar or weight of an animal) and markets are a weighted and incentived system that exploits this property. Prediction markets are better at predicting somethings and worse at others and their fallibility is also dependent on how well they're are structured.
    • blackbear_ 3y ago
      No, markets are connected to whatever information is publicly known at a given point in time. Which can be quite far from the truth.