5 ms·

Reddit Files to Go Public, in First Social Media IPO in Years

33 points by tcmb 3y ago

nabla9 3y ago
Valuation of $5 billion would buy P/S 6.3 with negative P/E for 18 year old non-innovating company that is already in the second phase of enshittification.
- brodouevencode 3y ago
  This seems like a last ditch effort to make it relevant again.
- Havoc 3y ago
  They might still pull it off anyway with their data play given AI hype And by pull it off I mean original investors get out and someone else is left holding bag
  - nolok 3y ago
    It would be really surprising given that all of the data up to 2020 is already out there. They made a deal to give a firehose of data to an ai company and it was only for 60 million.
    - Havoc 3y ago
      Yep. I don’t see how this is worth billions either but that seems to be the play.
      - stormfather 3y ago
        Google might want their post 2020 data to lobotomize the next generation of Gemini
        DaSHacka 3y ago
        "I'm sorry, as a heckin wholesome 100 roboterino, I can't generate any content that spreads dangerous misinformation about our sponsors."
    - ametrau 3y ago
      But licensing will be bigger. And big money will be pushing it as an edge / moat—one of the few they have.
- shitlord 3y ago
  The company actually would have been profitable in 2023 if it didn't pay out >$200M in combined compensation to the CEO and COO. Edit: cfo -> coo
  - nabla9 3y ago
    They didn't pay $200M. They gave stock options. Actual pay is just few million.
    - shitlord 3y ago
      These figures are from the S-1 and the compensation includes both stock options + awards.
      - nabla9 3y ago
        Yes they are and stock options are almost all of the compensation.
        shitlord 3y ago
        Oh, I see what you mean.
tcmb 3y ago
The S-1 filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000162828024006294/reddits-1q423.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000162828024...
jallasprit 3y ago
The only thing that really has value at Reddit right now seems to be their giant archive of user generated posts. It is certainly going to be interesting come IPO day.
- rchaud 3y ago
  They had a free dataset containing data up to 2020: https://www.reddit.com/r/bigquery/comments/kyjqbt/there_used_to_be_a_dataset_of_reddit_comments_on/ https://www.reddit.com/r/bigquery/comments/kyjqbt/there_used... Reddit is 90% noise, a lot of the content is going to be "meme reply" type comments, to topics posted by karma bots.
  - ametrau 3y ago
    This is the way
paxys 3y ago
$5B is definitely a lot more realistic than the $15B valuation they were targeting in 2022, but IMO Reddit is still not a sustainable business as it stands today. So many investors have had their money tied up for over a decade will little to no growth and are going to be scrambling for an exit on IPO day. Revenues are barely growing, losses are increasing. I don't see a rosy future for this stock.
- voytec 3y ago
  Unlikely sustainable without innovations. A payday for stakeholders and then popular-brand bagholders magnet, possibly a buy-rumor-sell-before-quarterly-report playtoy. I wouldn't expect UX increase and the question is how long the enshittification-revenue balance will be kept steady.
  - Accujack 3y ago
    They haven't innovated in years. The only real changes to reddit have been a cosmetic re-work and release of an app for mobile use. Well, that and the API changes that drove away something like a third of the users.
- ametrau 3y ago
  It’s run incompetently just at the moment. You have a golden opportunity right now with the enshittification problem. How many people put Reddit after the KW in search? If it’s opened up maybe it’ll get better management.
kromem 3y ago
I always thought it would have been neat if the users themselves had pooled resources and bought it up. It could have been extremely valuable, but at this point management has been clearly outed as having no idea what they are doing.
ChrisArchitect 3y ago
[dupe] More discussion on the official S1: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39472782 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39472782

33 points by tcmb 3y ago

Valuation of $5 billion would buy P/S 6.3 with negative P/E for 18 year old non-innovating company that is already in the second phase of enshittification.

brodouevencode 3y ago
This seems like a last ditch effort to make it relevant again.
Havoc 3y ago
They might still pull it off anyway with their data play given AI hype And by pull it off I mean original investors get out and someone else is left holding bag
- nolok 3y ago
  It would be really surprising given that all of the data up to 2020 is already out there. They made a deal to give a firehose of data to an ai company and it was only for 60 million.
  - Havoc 3y ago
    Yep. I don’t see how this is worth billions either but that seems to be the play.
    - stormfather 3y ago
      Google might want their post 2020 data to lobotomize the next generation of Gemini
      - DaSHacka 3y ago
        "I'm sorry, as a heckin wholesome 100 roboterino, I can't generate any content that spreads dangerous misinformation about our sponsors."
  - ametrau 3y ago
    But licensing will be bigger. And big money will be pushing it as an edge / moat—one of the few they have.
shitlord 3y ago
The company actually would have been profitable in 2023 if it didn't pay out >$200M in combined compensation to the CEO and COO. Edit: cfo -> coo
- nabla9 3y ago
  They didn't pay $200M. They gave stock options. Actual pay is just few million.
  - shitlord 3y ago
    These figures are from the S-1 and the compensation includes both stock options + awards.
    - nabla9 3y ago
      Yes they are and stock options are almost all of the compensation.
      - shitlord 3y ago
        Oh, I see what you mean.

tcmb 3y ago

The S-1 filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000162828024006294/reddits-1q423.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000162828024...

jallasprit 3y ago

The only thing that really has value at Reddit right now seems to be their giant archive of user generated posts. It is certainly going to be interesting come IPO day.

rchaud 3y ago
They had a free dataset containing data up to 2020: https://www.reddit.com/r/bigquery/comments/kyjqbt/there_used_to_be_a_dataset_of_reddit_comments_on/ https://www.reddit.com/r/bigquery/comments/kyjqbt/there_used... Reddit is 90% noise, a lot of the content is going to be "meme reply" type comments, to topics posted by karma bots.
- ametrau 3y ago
  This is the way

paxys 3y ago

$5B is definitely a lot more realistic than the $15B valuation they were targeting in 2022, but IMO Reddit is still not a sustainable business as it stands today. So many investors have had their money tied up for over a decade will little to no growth and are going to be scrambling for an exit on IPO day. Revenues are barely growing, losses are increasing. I don't see a rosy future for this stock.

voytec 3y ago
Unlikely sustainable without innovations. A payday for stakeholders and then popular-brand bagholders magnet, possibly a buy-rumor-sell-before-quarterly-report playtoy. I wouldn't expect UX increase and the question is how long the enshittification-revenue balance will be kept steady.
- Accujack 3y ago
  They haven't innovated in years. The only real changes to reddit have been a cosmetic re-work and release of an app for mobile use. Well, that and the API changes that drove away something like a third of the users.
ametrau 3y ago
It’s run incompetently just at the moment. You have a golden opportunity right now with the enshittification problem. How many people put Reddit after the KW in search? If it’s opened up maybe it’ll get better management.

kromem 3y ago

I always thought it would have been neat if the users themselves had pooled resources and bought it up. It could have been extremely valuable, but at this point management has been clearly outed as having no idea what they are doing.

ChrisArchitect 3y ago

[dupe] More discussion on the official S1: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39472782 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39472782