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It certainly feels like AI is a new tech bubble. Lots of AI services just seem to be thin wrappers over OpenAI’s offerings.

jstummbillig 3y ago
I think the usage of the term "bubble" could use a little sharpening. In this context, for example, you could also use "gold rush" for an entirely different (yet similarly vague) effect.
- ghaff 3y ago
  Bubble implies an overall deflation. Gold rush implies a few people will get rich--especially those selling tools--and the rest will go belly-up. The latter seems more plausible in general. And, honestly, gold rush probably applies better to a lot of things in tech than bubble. (Though dot-com was probably more of a bubble even if some companies came out the other side.)
tutfbhuf 3y ago
I wouldn't necessarily call it a bubble. There has been a breakthrough in AI recently, and now we see the new companies following that. Of course, 95% or so will fail, and the invested money is gone, but that happens basically with every new technology shift. From my point of view, what is needed for a real investment bubble is that the investors are not aware that there is a high failure rate of AI startups, but I don't think that is the case here. For comparison, in case of the crypto bubble, there's really a huge community that thinks BTC or other cryptos will go "to the moon" and they seem to be immune to common investing fundamentals.
jgalt212 3y ago
until you can run OpenAI’s offerings on your laptop. https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-ne...
sparrowInHand 3y ago
Which is itself just a titanic wrapping on a gigantic effort, to convert all human knowledge into a spreadsheet - and becomes instantly tained by echolalia, as the AI output poisons itself.
deleted 3y ago
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ryandvm 3y ago
A bubble implies there's little or no actual value inside. I disagree completely. As a senior software engineer that has fully integrated GPT-4 into my dev process, I can assure you there is definitely value here. I would say these LLMs (or where we go from here) are going to be at least as transformative as the smartphone.

jstummbillig 3y ago

I think the usage of the term "bubble" could use a little sharpening. In this context, for example, you could also use "gold rush" for an entirely different (yet similarly vague) effect.

ghaff 3y ago
Bubble implies an overall deflation. Gold rush implies a few people will get rich--especially those selling tools--and the rest will go belly-up. The latter seems more plausible in general. And, honestly, gold rush probably applies better to a lot of things in tech than bubble. (Though dot-com was probably more of a bubble even if some companies came out the other side.)

tutfbhuf 3y ago

I wouldn't necessarily call it a bubble. There has been a breakthrough in AI recently, and now we see the new companies following that. Of course, 95% or so will fail, and the invested money is gone, but that happens basically with every new technology shift. From my point of view, what is needed for a real investment bubble is that the investors are not aware that there is a high failure rate of AI startups, but I don't think that is the case here. For comparison, in case of the crypto bubble, there's really a huge community that thinks BTC or other cryptos will go "to the moon" and they seem to be immune to common investing fundamentals.

jgalt212 3y ago

until you can run OpenAI’s offerings on your laptop. https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-ne...

sparrowInHand 3y ago

Which is itself just a titanic wrapping on a gigantic effort, to convert all human knowledge into a spreadsheet - and becomes instantly tained by echolalia, as the AI output poisons itself.

deleted 3y ago

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ryandvm 3y ago

A bubble implies there's little or no actual value inside. I disagree completely. As a senior software engineer that has fully integrated GPT-4 into my dev process, I can assure you there is definitely value here. I would say these LLMs (or where we go from here) are going to be at least as transformative as the smartphone.