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[deleted]

nostromo 3y ago
No conspiracy thinking required. Biden has a non-zero chance of dying before the election and Harris is very unpopular. It's not unthinkable that should Biden not be able to run, someone like Obama would step in at the last minute. Would I pay 20:1 odds for that scenario? Hell no. But I might buy at 100:1 or greater.
- Spivak 3y ago
  I'm sorry, what? The line of presidential succession has been long established, it's in the constitution, and Kamala Harris is next in line. And then a lot of people who aren't Obama.
  - simonw 3y ago
    That's a different issue. Presidental succession says who replaces Biden if he dies in office, but the question here is who would stand as the Democratic candidate for the 2024 election if he died. Harris would be likely, but maybe not a 100% certainty.
    - laidoffamazon 3y ago
      The edge cases are people like Pritzker or Newsom, not Michelle Obama who has repeatedly said she would never run for office.
  - pessimizer 3y ago
    Elections have nothing to do with presidential succession. It will be a party decision, Harris is a guaranteed loss, and M. Obama is a possible win.
    - laidoffamazon 3y ago
      This is, again, a conspiratorial mindset considering Michelle Obama has repeatedly said she would never run and Kamala Harris would never be replaced.
      - nostromo 3y ago
        Politicians always say that. Obama himself denied wanting to run for president repeatedly right up until he announced his run for president.
        laidoffamazon 3y ago
        Notably Barack Obama was an actual politician in February 2007, unlike Michelle Obama. It's a nonsensical comparison.
  - function_seven 3y ago
    Lines of succession are a separate thing from winners of elections. If Biden were to die before election day, that doesn't mean Harris would be on the ticket as the presidential nominee. I'd wager against that for sure. So who would be tapped to fill in for the recently-deceased candidate? Could be Harris, or Obama, or a dozen other hopefuls.
  - laidoffamazon 3y ago
    In the minds of conservatives and some leftists, the concept that Kamala being unpopular is so ingrained that they cannot believe that she would be the nominee no matter what the circumstances. In reality she's not much more unpopular than her President and would likely see a massive approval bump if the worst happens to the current POTUS. Even without that, she's the odds-on favorite to be the nominee in 2028 by incumbency alone. Basically anyone that follows politics understands this, but the silly conspiracies are based on motivated reasoning.

[deleted]

No conspiracy thinking required. Biden has a non-zero chance of dying before the election and Harris is very unpopular. It's not unthinkable that should Biden not be able to run, someone like Obama would step in at the last minute. Would I pay 20:1 odds for that scenario? Hell no. But I might buy at 100:1 or greater.

Spivak 3y ago
I'm sorry, what? The line of presidential succession has been long established, it's in the constitution, and Kamala Harris is next in line. And then a lot of people who aren't Obama.
- simonw 3y ago
  That's a different issue. Presidental succession says who replaces Biden if he dies in office, but the question here is who would stand as the Democratic candidate for the 2024 election if he died. Harris would be likely, but maybe not a 100% certainty.
  - laidoffamazon 3y ago
    The edge cases are people like Pritzker or Newsom, not Michelle Obama who has repeatedly said she would never run for office.
- pessimizer 3y ago
  Elections have nothing to do with presidential succession. It will be a party decision, Harris is a guaranteed loss, and M. Obama is a possible win.
  - laidoffamazon 3y ago
    This is, again, a conspiratorial mindset considering Michelle Obama has repeatedly said she would never run and Kamala Harris would never be replaced.
    - nostromo 3y ago
      Politicians always say that. Obama himself denied wanting to run for president repeatedly right up until he announced his run for president.
      - laidoffamazon 3y ago
        Notably Barack Obama was an actual politician in February 2007, unlike Michelle Obama. It's a nonsensical comparison.
- function_seven 3y ago
  Lines of succession are a separate thing from winners of elections. If Biden were to die before election day, that doesn't mean Harris would be on the ticket as the presidential nominee. I'd wager against that for sure. So who would be tapped to fill in for the recently-deceased candidate? Could be Harris, or Obama, or a dozen other hopefuls.
- laidoffamazon 3y ago
  In the minds of conservatives and some leftists, the concept that Kamala being unpopular is so ingrained that they cannot believe that she would be the nominee no matter what the circumstances. In reality she's not much more unpopular than her President and would likely see a massive approval bump if the worst happens to the current POTUS. Even without that, she's the odds-on favorite to be the nominee in 2028 by incumbency alone. Basically anyone that follows politics understands this, but the silly conspiracies are based on motivated reasoning.