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For context: China had a ban on Australian imports in the wake of the Australian PM saying that Xi and China should be investigated because of Covid or somethi

For context: China had a ban on Australian imports in the wake of the Australian PM saying that Xi and China should be investigated because of Covid or something along those lines. China just this last week dropped the ban and expected Australian imports to come flooding back in but almost nobody bit that hook due to the amount of time and money export companies had spent arranging relationships with other countries instead of China in the wake of the ban.

yellow_lead 3y ago
That's pretty bad for China. As I recall they import most of their iron ore from Australia for steel production. Australia is a huge metals exporter.
- ImaCake 3y ago
  Although your point still stands, the iron ore goes out through different ports mostly in the Pilbarra or northern Queensland.
  - defrost 3y ago
    Moreover they're not particularly susceptable to remote cyber attack having been built in the 1970s. Dampier, Cape Lambert, Port Hedland, are all single jetty deep water ports with single high capacity conveyor belts that run out to human operated ship loaders. These aren't high volume container ports with fancy networked container picking & stacking robots servicing multiple ships at a time with complex consignment lists. The iron ore shore facalities are physically, electrically, network wise, isolated mostly manual operations with joystick loaders, captained pilot boats, and line of sight sea flag siognalling and radio channel communication. You can take them out with a bomb but not a cyber attack.
- coffeecantcode 3y ago
  Yeah it’s a bad look, especially since Australia pivoted to India to fill the large gap China left in their export market. Now India is importing from Australia at a rate that is alarming only to China. The only problem for Australia is the China was often times paying radically larger premiums for Australian goods then any other country would be willing to pay. So everyone is starting to feel the heat. https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporters-can-come-back-some-say-no-thanks-5bcf5d27?st=4k1y248zy6iw4rh&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporte... Interesting read.
MichaelZuo 3y ago
Can you link the source? As far as I know most HS4 categories of trade goods never went to zero.
- coffeecantcode 3y ago
  No not to zero, I believe Australian exports to China went from 45% to 37% in 1 year. I have the article link posted in one of my comments below. In retro my use of the word ban makes it seem expansive and absolute but really it just resulted in billions and billions of dollars redirected or lost. Edit: https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporters-can-come-back-some-say-no-thanks-5bcf5d27?st=4k1y248zy6iw4rh&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporte...
  - xbmcuser 3y ago
    It will move the other way in a year very soon
    - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
      > will move the other way in a year very soon China is grappling with deflation [1]. It is likely they’re in a recession, at least in sectors relevant to housing demand. Given the state of regional government and developer finances, I don’t see where this de novo steel comes from. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/09/economy/china-deflation-october-consumer-prices-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/09/economy/china-deflation-octob...
      - andyferris 3y ago
        Probably worth mentioning China kept buying the iron ore (it seems out of need), so this isn't about steel. Trade of coal and many other goods were restricted; there is now an anticipation that exports of wine, coal, lobsters, etc will rebound.
    - nradov 3y ago
toyg 3y ago
I think it's unrealistic to expect complex export operations and contracts to be rerouted in a week. Like we saw with Brexit, stopping trade flows is very quick and easy but restarting them is very slow and hard. Chinese leadership typically reasons in terms of decades (or more), I wouldn't expect them to be mad with rage after a week.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > Chinese leadership typically reasons in terms of decades (or more) Historically, yes. But Xi is a dictator, and has been making decisions on mortal, personal timelines.
  - thombee 3y ago
    what a randomly baseless statement
    - NicoJuicy 3y ago
      He's not wrong, it's called "the dictator trap". Eg. For Putin. Yes men: Yes, Take Kyiv in 3 days and it's a done deal. Reality: lose > 300 k. Troops, a major portion of all Soviet tanks, risk of Russia splitting, occupy part of Ukraine instead of the whole, lose 300 billion € in Western banks, bring other countries into NATO, risk sphere of influence, Russian military strength debunked, ... Additionally: paranoia The only thing that was correct of Putin's analysis is that corrupt people mostly "support" him. ( Trump, Orban, Xi, Erdogan) Their propaganda failed where it matters ( except in Slovakia concerning the EU). However it's still in Africa, but don't have enough info about it.
- NicoJuicy 3y ago
  That's literally why they blocked Australia the first time...
- nradov 3y ago
  These are no longer typical times for Chinese leadership. Chairman Xi has successfully purged all other power centers but this has made him increasingly isolated and surrounded only by sycophants. Underlings are now afraid to bring him bad news or push back on bad decisions. Thus, we should expect to see an escalating level of errors and miscalculations.
alephnerd 3y ago
If it's China that did it, they're in a world of hurt from the UAE. DP World owns most of the major ports globally. It's absolutely massive and a critical part of the UAE's larger geopolitical strategy. They operate the Antwerp Port, Le Harve Port, Qingdao Port, Hong Kong Port, Tianjin Port, Mudra Port, just about every port in Australia, Saigon Port, Karachi Port, Vancouver Port, Manila Port, Busan Port, Laem Chabang Port, etc. They are the backbone of global logistical infrastructure. DP is owned by Dubai's royal family (Makhtoom). If AD Ports properties were also hit (owned by the Abu Dhabi royal family - the Nayhan's) it's game over. Whichever country did this would be de facto blocked from UAE, and the UAE is critical for Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Indian FDI.
- LeChuck 3y ago
  This is overstating it quite a bit. They do not operate the port. They operate one of several container terminals in those ports.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Addendum: I wouldn't rush to blame the Chinese for this yet. It could also just be a coincidence. Perpetrating a massive cyberattack during APEC before meeting Albanese and Biden is just horrible optics and destroys the ongoing normalization efforts It's too soon to attribute cause
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- surfingdino 3y ago
  Could it be Iran?
  - carom 3y ago
    It could be a 16 year old kid in Iowa. It could be a crimeware group. It could be a lot of people.
- generic92034 3y ago
thombee 3y ago
im confused, what has that got to do with this cyberattack?
plugger 3y ago
> ...and expected Australian imports to come flooding back in but almost nobody bit that hook due to the amount of time and money export companies had spent arranging relationships with other countries instead of China in the wake of the ban. Do you have a source for this? I feel it's very generalised and doesn't take into account the individual industries. Take Australian red wine for instance, domestic producers haven't found a new export market to take the volume China did. It's negatively impacted the industry significantly and I'm quite certain once Australian wine producers can gain non-tariffed access to the Chinese market again the oceans of red will once again flow.
- coffeecantcode 3y ago
  This is what I based my original take off of, which then led to some independent research on the topic over the course of the week. Interestingly enough the article discusses the wine exports as you have mentioned as well. https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporters-can-come-back-some-say-no-thanks-5bcf5d27?st=4k1y248zy6iw4rh&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporte...
  - plugger 3y ago
    In that research did you watch this video? https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2023-11-06/where-to-next-for-the-australia-china-trade/103071680 https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2023-11-06... I kinda think if you want honest appraisals of the Australia/China relationship you'd probably want to look at domestic Australia sources when compared to the wsj.
    - coffeecantcode 3y ago
      In all transparency no, it wouldn’t load then and it still won’t now for some reason. Despite that it seems that the previous Australian ambassador believes that the relationship will remain strong between the two countries, I don’t doubt that. But you can’t deny that there is probably some lasting damage if not with financials then at the very least with reputation for these private companies that now find themselves in some awkward positions with suppliers and import/export regulations. Feel free to summarize the video if you’d like I don’t have a pessimistic outlook on the whole thing, I just think that China has their fingers in too many pies right now if you catch my drift.

yellow_lead 3y ago

That's pretty bad for China. As I recall they import most of their iron ore from Australia for steel production. Australia is a huge metals exporter.

ImaCake 3y ago
Although your point still stands, the iron ore goes out through different ports mostly in the Pilbarra or northern Queensland.
- defrost 3y ago
  Moreover they're not particularly susceptable to remote cyber attack having been built in the 1970s. Dampier, Cape Lambert, Port Hedland, are all single jetty deep water ports with single high capacity conveyor belts that run out to human operated ship loaders. These aren't high volume container ports with fancy networked container picking & stacking robots servicing multiple ships at a time with complex consignment lists. The iron ore shore facalities are physically, electrically, network wise, isolated mostly manual operations with joystick loaders, captained pilot boats, and line of sight sea flag siognalling and radio channel communication. You can take them out with a bomb but not a cyber attack.
coffeecantcode 3y ago
Yeah it’s a bad look, especially since Australia pivoted to India to fill the large gap China left in their export market. Now India is importing from Australia at a rate that is alarming only to China. The only problem for Australia is the China was often times paying radically larger premiums for Australian goods then any other country would be willing to pay. So everyone is starting to feel the heat. https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporters-can-come-back-some-say-no-thanks-5bcf5d27?st=4k1y248zy6iw4rh&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporte... Interesting read.

MichaelZuo 3y ago

Can you link the source? As far as I know most HS4 categories of trade goods never went to zero.

coffeecantcode 3y ago
No not to zero, I believe Australian exports to China went from 45% to 37% in 1 year. I have the article link posted in one of my comments below. In retro my use of the word ban makes it seem expansive and absolute but really it just resulted in billions and billions of dollars redirected or lost. Edit: https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporters-can-come-back-some-say-no-thanks-5bcf5d27?st=4k1y248zy6iw4rh&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporte...
- xbmcuser 3y ago
  It will move the other way in a year very soon
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > will move the other way in a year very soon China is grappling with deflation [1]. It is likely they’re in a recession, at least in sectors relevant to housing demand. Given the state of regional government and developer finances, I don’t see where this de novo steel comes from. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/09/economy/china-deflation-october-consumer-prices-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/09/economy/china-deflation-octob...
    - andyferris 3y ago
      Probably worth mentioning China kept buying the iron ore (it seems out of need), so this isn't about steel. Trade of coal and many other goods were restricted; there is now an anticipation that exports of wine, coal, lobsters, etc will rebound.
  - nradov 3y ago

toyg 3y ago

I think it's unrealistic to expect complex export operations and contracts to be rerouted in a week. Like we saw with Brexit, stopping trade flows is very quick and easy but restarting them is very slow and hard. Chinese leadership typically reasons in terms of decades (or more), I wouldn't expect them to be mad with rage after a week.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> Chinese leadership typically reasons in terms of decades (or more) Historically, yes. But Xi is a dictator, and has been making decisions on mortal, personal timelines.
- thombee 3y ago
  what a randomly baseless statement
  - NicoJuicy 3y ago
    He's not wrong, it's called "the dictator trap". Eg. For Putin. Yes men: Yes, Take Kyiv in 3 days and it's a done deal. Reality: lose > 300 k. Troops, a major portion of all Soviet tanks, risk of Russia splitting, occupy part of Ukraine instead of the whole, lose 300 billion € in Western banks, bring other countries into NATO, risk sphere of influence, Russian military strength debunked, ... Additionally: paranoia The only thing that was correct of Putin's analysis is that corrupt people mostly "support" him. ( Trump, Orban, Xi, Erdogan) Their propaganda failed where it matters ( except in Slovakia concerning the EU). However it's still in Africa, but don't have enough info about it.
NicoJuicy 3y ago
That's literally why they blocked Australia the first time...
nradov 3y ago
These are no longer typical times for Chinese leadership. Chairman Xi has successfully purged all other power centers but this has made him increasingly isolated and surrounded only by sycophants. Underlings are now afraid to bring him bad news or push back on bad decisions. Thus, we should expect to see an escalating level of errors and miscalculations.

alephnerd 3y ago

If it's China that did it, they're in a world of hurt from the UAE. DP World owns most of the major ports globally. It's absolutely massive and a critical part of the UAE's larger geopolitical strategy. They operate the Antwerp Port, Le Harve Port, Qingdao Port, Hong Kong Port, Tianjin Port, Mudra Port, just about every port in Australia, Saigon Port, Karachi Port, Vancouver Port, Manila Port, Busan Port, Laem Chabang Port, etc. They are the backbone of global logistical infrastructure. DP is owned by Dubai's royal family (Makhtoom). If AD Ports properties were also hit (owned by the Abu Dhabi royal family - the Nayhan's) it's game over. Whichever country did this would be de facto blocked from UAE, and the UAE is critical for Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Indian FDI.

LeChuck 3y ago
This is overstating it quite a bit. They do not operate the port. They operate one of several container terminals in those ports.
alephnerd 3y ago
Addendum: I wouldn't rush to blame the Chinese for this yet. It could also just be a coincidence. Perpetrating a massive cyberattack during APEC before meeting Albanese and Biden is just horrible optics and destroys the ongoing normalization efforts It's too soon to attribute cause
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
surfingdino 3y ago
Could it be Iran?
- carom 3y ago
  It could be a 16 year old kid in Iowa. It could be a crimeware group. It could be a lot of people.
generic92034 3y ago

thombee 3y ago

im confused, what has that got to do with this cyberattack?

plugger 3y ago

> ...and expected Australian imports to come flooding back in but almost nobody bit that hook due to the amount of time and money export companies had spent arranging relationships with other countries instead of China in the wake of the ban. Do you have a source for this? I feel it's very generalised and doesn't take into account the individual industries. Take Australian red wine for instance, domestic producers haven't found a new export market to take the volume China did. It's negatively impacted the industry significantly and I'm quite certain once Australian wine producers can gain non-tariffed access to the Chinese market again the oceans of red will once again flow.

coffeecantcode 3y ago
This is what I based my original take off of, which then led to some independent research on the topic over the course of the week. Interestingly enough the article discusses the wine exports as you have mentioned as well. https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporters-can-come-back-some-say-no-thanks-5bcf5d27?st=4k1y248zy6iw4rh&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporte...
- plugger 3y ago
  In that research did you watch this video? https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2023-11-06/where-to-next-for-the-australia-china-trade/103071680 https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2023-11-06... I kinda think if you want honest appraisals of the Australia/China relationship you'd probably want to look at domestic Australia sources when compared to the wsj.
  - coffeecantcode 3y ago
    In all transparency no, it wouldn’t load then and it still won’t now for some reason. Despite that it seems that the previous Australian ambassador believes that the relationship will remain strong between the two countries, I don’t doubt that. But you can’t deny that there is probably some lasting damage if not with financials then at the very least with reputation for these private companies that now find themselves in some awkward positions with suppliers and import/export regulations. Feel free to summarize the video if you’d like I don’t have a pessimistic outlook on the whole thing, I just think that China has their fingers in too many pies right now if you catch my drift.