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I wouldn't worry to much about climate change, humanity overcame bigger problems. And if your in-laws want children so much, just tell them your concerns, they
by Hitton 3y ago
I wouldn't worry to much about climate change, humanity overcame bigger problems. And if your in-laws want children so much, just tell them your concerns, they might be willing to chip in financially.
- Daishiman 3y agoI think you are seriously underestimating the impacts that worldwide crop failures in the next 20 years are going to have as far as global human catastrophes go.
- johngladtj 3y agoAre you serious about this? This climate doomerism is frankly ridiculous. Do you have any genuine studies that show such impactful effects?
- wing-_-nuts 3y agoThere's a certain group of people that take the absolute worst predictions of climate science and just runs with it. Granted, there's a far larger group of people that think we'll be ok with business as usual. Neither is true.
- Daishiman 3y agoI'm not sure if you're aware that 3-5C is perfectly within the business-as-usual scenarios and 5C is easily a civilization-ending trend.
- wing-_-nuts 3y agoI'm using BAU loosely here. I'm not referring to RCP 8.5. I have my own issues with the IPCC's estimates relying to much on direct air capture, but I don't think 5-6c is likely unless there's an unforseen feedback loop we haven't factored in. I'd almost bet money on the eventual use of stratospheric sulfide injection to cool the planet. It's cheap enough that even a third world country could conceivably pay for it. We have no idea what the side effects will be, but it may well be worth the risk to avoid 3-4c of warming.
- Daishiman 3y agoThe IPCC reports don’t really factor in the dramatic acceleration of methane emissions from bogs and Siberian wetlands.
- Daishiman 3y agoI work with climatologists in the development of AI models that improve over the climatology. The amount of arable land that will be lost in the tropics is going to dramatically impact all countries around the Equator. Some areas simply will not support human life without air conditioning with a 2 degree increase in wet bulb temperature and +3C increase in extreme weather events. Crop failures are linked to many historically extreme events. A 15%-30% in staple foods has _massive_ impacts in the poorest 20% of the population. In poor democracies it leads to people voting for demagogues and autocrats; in other places it's much worse. The cascade of these events with ever increasing temperature is exponential.
- wholien 3y agoWhat percentage of crops will fail in 20 years?
- Daishiman 3y agoSee https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3124/global-climate-change-impact-on-crops-expected-within-10-years-nasa-study-finds/ https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3124/global-climate-change-imp... Some crops like coffee, chocolate and grapes are going to see an extremely dramatic reduction in arable surface
- bryanlarsen 3y agoSignificant crop failures will cause prices to rise, which will enable the wider use of refrigerated storage, fertilizer, new crop varietals, desalinated water, greenhouses, etc. This will bring supply and demand back into balance at a higher price. The higher price for food will cause millions of deaths, an impact comparable to COVID or to the Ukraine and Ethiopian wars combined. It will pale in comparison to the impact of WW2, the black plague or the Chinese cultural revolution.
- waveBidder 3y agoit's difficult to articulate the (IMO correct) position that climate change is horrible but still totally solvable. somehow people hear "we can solve this" as " there's no reason to be concerned"
- bryanlarsen 3y agoI agree with the gist of your argument, but I wouldn't phrase it as "totally solvable". Limiting it to 2 degrees is possible, limiting it to 3 is likely. Both are bad, both are locally catastrophic but neither are globally catastrophic. I like my phrasing "millions will die". That works on numerate people, but most people can't really conceptualize the difference between a million and a billion. Any other suggestions?
- rendang 3y agoThere's a great deal of land in the very cold part of the N hemisphere that may become more agriculturally productive with warming.
- Daishiman 3y agoThose area are limited by the number of hours of sunlight and the number of growing seasons. Reductions in 20-30% are expected, but this doesn't really capture the increase in extreme weather events that can lead to total crop loss.
- wing-_-nuts 3y agoThe soil quality there is very low. Also, large parts of canada are covered by the 'canadian shield' which is basically where glaciers have scraped down to bare granite bedrock. If we had thousands of years to adjust, I'm sure we could manage but you're not planting huge fields of wheat, corn or soybean in that soil.
- mupuff1234 3y ago> humanity overcame bigger problems Like? I tend to agree that humanity will eventually overcome but the question is also when and at what cost?
- jjcon 3y agoBubonic plague, supereruptions, ice ages, malaria, smallpox, ozone deterioration - lots of these seem small now but that’s only because we’ve already overcome them
- amrocha 3y agoThat's post facto logic. Obviously you and your ancestors have overcome those things, because the millions that didn't are dead. Statistically someone was going to survive, you're lucky it was your ancestors, but it doesn't mean you will be lucky again.
- jjcon 3y agoThat’s the whole point that is being made… we’re talking about humanity - Yeah lots of individuals will die due to climate change, particularly in 3rd world countries but humanity will be just fine overall, just as it was with all those disasters.
- Contusion3532 3y agoHumanity may survive, but not the modern civilization and the quality of life that we enjoy.
- jjcon 3y agoNorth America and Europe are unlikely to be particularly impacted even in the worst case ipcc projections so not sure where you get that from
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- malauxyeux 3y agoFor me, the question isn't "Will humanity overcome?" I don't have a doubt about that. Instead it's "What are the chances my kid – the individual – will lead a relatively peaceful, fulfilling life for the next 70-90 years?" I don't know the answer.
- giantg2 3y ago"What are the chances my kid – the individual – will lead a relatively peaceful, fulfilling life for the next 70-90 years?" Did your parents know the answer to that? Did your grandparents? Etc What gives you fulfillment varies based on perspective. Peace is fragile and basically non-existent across one's entire lifespan.
- malauxyeux 3y ago> Did your parents know the answer to that? Did your grandparents? No. But it's not really relevant to me. My grandparents' generation was largely motivated by religious faith (and lack of birth control) to have a bunch of kids. My parents' generation mostly lost the religious motivation, but inherited the inertia without questioning it. It's not to say they didn't want their kids, but having kids was just "what you did". None of that's the case for me.
- giantg2 3y agoSorry, I'll be more specific - do you wish you were never born?
- malauxyeux 3y agoI think the closest I come to a "yes" would be a sort of underlying feeling of nihilism. The universe is big; life is short. That kind of thing. But if I had a kid and e.g., watched that kid become a climate refugee, I think I'd regret my decision to make that kid.
- googlryas 3y agoIt seems like now, more than any time in recorded history, the answer is "yes".