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The median prediction for whether this gets independently confirmed is sitting at 25%: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-pr
by tersh 3y ago
The median prediction for whether this gets independently confirmed is sitting at 25%: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-supercon...
- tcmb 3y ago... whether it gets confirmed by _the first_ independent attempt.
- giarc 3y agoPredicted by random people on the internet as well.
- ddp26 3y agoNow down to 19%. Starting to stabilize, at 143 forecasters.
- alexose 3y agoThe 'nays' getting lots of traction on twitter right now https://twitter.com/alexkaplan0/status/1684642852616192000 https://twitter.com/alexkaplan0/status/1684642852616192000
- Mizza 3y agoSome schmo with an instant coffee company. There's no need to surface random people's opinions.
- nancyhn 3y agoEinstein was some schmo working at a patent office...
- rcpt 3y agoBut it's tech instant coffee
- fijiaarone 3y ago1000 to 1? Dollars to bitcoins? Shares in their room temperature superconductor monopoly?
- mrtranscendence 3y agoI mean, he has a PhD in physics, at least. He's not just some rando off the street.
- oefrha 3y agoI was a high energy theorist and I even went to the same school as this guy (Princeton). I’ll admit I’m a complete rando when it comes to superconducting materials. PhD in an unrelated subfield means very little. I guess it helps with grokking academic drama.
- madacol 3y agoFor context, he is the same guy that went viral yesterday[0] excited with optimism, now saying there are other more possible explanations for the results besides superconductivity [0]: https://twitter.com/alexkaplan0/status/1684044616528453633 https://twitter.com/alexkaplan0/status/1684044616528453633
- mustacheemperor 3y agoJust to keep us all up to date, he’s now linked a figure from the recently discovered third paper and returned to breathless excitement.
- fijiaarone 3y agoAlright, I’ll give you 10:1 odds.
- Ajedi32 3y agoSomeone also previously linked this betting market here which currently has it at only 16%. https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor...
- fleischhauf 3y agoI'm also highly scheptical but if you'd asked a bunch of random people wether or not the relativity theory is true or nuclear weapons when they were first demonstrated they probably would have been equally sceptical
- sweezyjeezy 3y agoWhat does that prove though? It's not wrong to doubt extraordinary hypotheses just because they are sometimes correct. Consider all the times those kinds of hypotheses are confirmed to be wrong.
- willis936 3y agoRight, in which case asking a broad audience will be, at best, noise.
- jimmySixDOF 3y agoSo technically the question asked is only if "the first independent replication attempt" will confirm (current guess 10%) and I think thats about right I can imagine there is a lot of 'build Twitter in a weekend' going on and it will take a while before the dust settles and there is a solid replication to base a solid conclusion.
- fijiaarone 3y agoLooks like I need to give some sucker 3:1 odds to take his money. Anyone want to bet it’s real?