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Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

71 points by blingojames 3y ago

Hi, do you think the market for job seekers, Startup funding, is recovering? if not could you estimate when it will recover?

barelyauser 3y ago
Interest rates are on the rise. Money is expensive. Not recovering this year.
adaml_623 3y ago
Which country and area OP?
csomar 3y ago
It's still scared like a wet chicken. Most founders, VCs, employees, banks, etc.. and even the government itself are waiting to see how the monetary part is going to unfold before declaring anything or making any decisions. I think we should know before the end of this year.
gumby 3y ago
For fundraising, I don’t expect anything to happen over the summer but anticipate a rise come September
idkyall 3y ago
Assuming you mean the US. I think it depends a great deal on the area and part of the economy you are targeting. I have seen a ton of hiring in my local area by banks, for example. The large cap tech company(b2b) I work at is still in a hiring freeze, by contrast. I doubt that startup funding will recover much until interest rates go down, as I think the general attitude right now is pretty conservative about investment. Probably this will recover early to mid ~2024, and definitely by 2025[1] depending on when the US Fed cuts interest rates. [1]https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20230614.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcproj...
santiagobasulto 3y ago
AI hype seems to be creating a different sensation, but in reality, nobody knows. Looking at "hard facts", the yield curve is in the "most inverted" position in a LONG time. I'd still be cautious.
- saberience 3y ago
  The whole “yield curve inversion” thing is really overstated, even the guy who invented that idea says so. You should listen to him talk about it.
  - maerF0x0 3y ago
    Please state who invented the idea, and link a talk/video :)
sixhobbits 3y ago
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/NASDAQ-100-1985to2015.svg/1200px-NASDAQ-100-1985to2015.svg.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/NA... If you look at nasdaq around the dotcom crash it also had a fake bounce before the real crash. Past doesn't predict the future but also no reason we couldn't be in a fake bounce now.
- Aachen 3y ago
  I think one difference with the dotcom situation is that everyone is now deeply reliant on digital and networked systems. The size of any market correction is not something I'm qualified to comment on, but I'm not sure that this particular single historic data point is going to have predictive power
  - Findeton 3y ago
    Inflation is going down and that means less consumption. That means worse profits. That means less jobs. We'll see but there's a reason even the FED models are predicting a recession in Q4/Q1.
    - Aachen 3y ago
      I'm not saying there will not be a recession, specifically I wrote: > The size of any market correction is not something I'm qualified to comment on The person above me said that it might still get much worse, basing that on a rather different situation. All I said is that I would not use this specific reference data for setting future expectations in the current situation
- wslh 3y ago
  Yes, there are basic technical patterns that are used to repeat (or not!) but as others say in the dotcom crash there were no real Internet/technology penetration into the society: dot com companies tried to create a market that didn't exist and required time to be builts (e.g. mobile phones). Once the technology "eats everything" we are part of a new ecosystem and sometimes we are humans using tools but in many other times it is tools (e.g. ads) that are using humans. AI is having an impact in the markets, there is not question that ChatGPT inaugurates a new milestone even if at the end that AI is not so smart, it is very useful. IMHO we, humans, are the bottleneck and slowing things down: matching a buyer with a seller is slow, it requires building trust and depends on culture. If you remove humans from some activities the economy will accelerate. That does not mean that the human race will be better as a whole but the money spped will rise and money will flow in the direction of removing humans when they could be replaced.
xupybd 3y ago
Seeing some recovery here in NZ in the manufacturing industry. It's still pretty bad.
benreesman 3y ago
One anecdote here: for me personally the job/funding market collapsed in maybe December of 2022. In November I got ~10 inbound pings from credible recruiters or HR folks at credible shops a week, and that was typical of probably the last 5 or 10 years. In December it was zero and has stayed zero until this month when I’ve had 2. Outbound resumes and pinging the network was pretty much “I wish I could help you” all year until May/June and now conversations are starting to go somewhere at least in the early stages. The compensation packages people are talking are still like a quarter of what was typical a year ago if that. So it seems like we’ve got a ways to go before the market starts operating with consistent price discovery, but I’m seeing the ice crack here and there.
- H8crilA 3y ago
  > "compensation packages people are talking are still like a quarter of what was typical a year ago if that" You mean much less stock? I can't imagine a senior engineer getting a $50k in annual salary, only in the cash component.
  - benreesman 3y ago
    I have less intuition for how equity packages are working because that tends to happen a little later in the conversation at least in my geography and at my tenure. Broadly people seem to be signaling looser equity purse strings to go along with massively tighter cash purse strings YoY. I’m sort of L7/L8 with an ML infra focus in California and total cash a year ago seemed to be ~300-400k and now people are seeming to need to “call upstairs” to talk above 150. So maybe half-ish would be closer than the quarter-ish I threw out in my comment. I was kind of factoring in inflation and that stock comp in a mature public company at a 30-40 PE is unlikely to hold up for 4 years.
    - cornholio 3y ago
      > total cash a year ago seemed to be ~300-400k That was probably an unsustainable bubble on the long run, inflation adjusted, unless you hold exceptionally rare skills that can't be replicated or taught. It was simply the result of a severely unbalanced market. I'm sure some people still make 400k+, but I'm also sure their performance and contribution is scrutinized quarterly and they are the first on the chopping block unless they hold internal political clout or are famous.
trabant00 3y ago
As long as the war in Ukraine lasts I don't think we are going to see any improvement. A lot of money is going there and so the value of the money remaining for investing, development, spending, is diminished. As for the war I initially guessed 3-5 years, now I'm guessing 10. So I'm quite pessimistic about the near future.
- cmrdporcupine 3y ago
  If the war does continue in the long run and the west remains committed to it (which means commitment from the next US presidential administration, too) then it will heighten and spread (scary) and there will end up being significant economic restructuring -- a real reworking of industrial capacity to support arms manufacturing -- and all bets are off on what the tech investment scene will look like. I have no doubt that the collective west can easily bury Russia in terms of an arms industry economy (it's done it before), but this is a major retooling. Time to learn to start writing software for drones/UAVs?
- iammjm 3y ago
  At the current attrition rates on both sides i can't imagine this was going on for 10 years. Then again i don't know your definition of "war"
  - cmrdporcupine 3y ago
    This war has been going on in some form since 2014, when Russian troops first initiated hostilities in the Donbas. Even if this very active phase ends and the bulk of mobilized troops pull back from the front, as long as the Russian regime stays the same or similar I expect we'll see continued shelling and engagement along the border, and cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets for years. There's too much cost to the current Russian regime in letting a Ukraine that is not a direct client of theirs succeed and potentially thrive. It would have a domino effect and the Russian federation could disintegrate or at least the ruling elites there lose control and privilege. It does not matter to them if Russian quality of life suffers as long as Ukraine suffers more.
- obscurette 3y ago
ptrrrrrrppr 3y ago
In Poland it's still a little bit slower, only serious hiring I see is for senior roles in business critical teams. No great new investments made
fidotron 3y ago
I think there are several possibilities, among them is the idea it will not recover. What has made things rebound previously is the emergence of some new platform and/or a new way to make money on a platform. For the first time in decades it feels like the low hanging fruit have all been picked and the VR/metaverse idea is not proving nearly so compelling as many hoped. In the near future I suspect any major growth in this sector will be around environmental problems, probably kicking off in earnest later this year, and fixing hilariously inefficient cloud deployments would probably count. The simple fact though is a lot of people that had been in the software industry really weren’t cut out for it, and were in the way of those that are. We will be better off when they find their true calling making money elsewhere.
ReDeiPirati 3y ago
For job seekers not at all. I just finished my job search after 5 months and 1 week. After 179 applications, 22 interviews, 2 offers later, I'd say that it's one of the toughest and miserable job market someone can find into. I job search-ed even during the pandemic, and although it was difficult, imho this one is order of magnitude worse... The Senior you are the better chance you'll have, but there is no market for JR, and I feel so bad for them because I have a few people that I care about that are in that condition and aren't able to find almost any openings. For startup funding, if you are in AI it's fine. Otherwise better presenting with very good metrics and not with the pressing needs of raising money. It's impossible to say when it will recover, but I'll echo the people in this thread that say "not this year".
- frfl 3y ago
  95% of positions I can find have a Senior title or higher. Position not requiring 5+ years right now is an exception, not the normal in my experience thus far. Applying even with 4 years experience and good skill match has been a 100% rejection/ghosting rate across maybe a dozen+ job applications so far. I agree with the sentiment about junior/entry level...everyone want a senior. Maybe I'm not looking at the insurance/bank/non-tech job boards and companies, maybe they have a few more junior/entry level positions. In startups and high-tech companies, 95% senior and above positions only.
  - the_only_law 3y ago
    I’ve noticed a shitton of specialist jobs with less and less generalist ones in the “cost-centerL side of companies. Most of my professional experience is in .NET stuff and I swear everything I go to search for jobs now they wants a senior/principal/whatever developer who’s an expert with whatever weird obscure COTS software the company uses. I’ve also seen a surprising amount of jobs for people with Unity experience, sometimes in some pretty interesting domains.
Macha 3y ago
Can't speak for startups, not a big employer in my market (possibly this is the cause of the mitigated impact here), but as for job seekers: 2021/2022 were insane here. Recruiters trying every angle to get your attention, companies doubling in size. It feels like here (Ireland) though, the retreat was much less pronounced. It feels more like 2019/2020 than any kind of crash. I know people who have been laid off, they've found other jobs at comparable pay. I know people who've moved for more pay. _I've_ moved for significantly more pay and a more firm commitment to wfh. There are some things that are unhealthy for sure. The market seems to have bifurcated between grads/juniors who are having a much harder time breaking in than previously, and mid level + who are basically unaffected. Possibly this will make its way up the ladder over time, but it basically started with the grad/junior market in 2020 before the interest rate increases.
- waihtis 3y ago
  Europe-based companies probably did a lot less junk hires and that's why things appear to be more stable here.
  - Tepix 3y ago
    Indeed the DAX (german stock index) is at an all-time high.
  - that_guy_iain 3y ago
    I think also, they're a lot smaller and getting rid of less people so it doesn't seem as big. One thing is many basically tried to encourage people to leave put them on performance plans, etc and do everything they could to avoid layoffs. So companies have been downsizing but not annoying any layoffs because they just worked people out instead. I also, suspect there may be quite some way to go before it's all said and done.
- saargrin 3y ago
  wait till full impact of reasonably capable AI coding engines hits juniors will be basically unhireable :/
amelius 3y ago
How about the semiconductor shortages, is the situation getting better?
- hardware2win 3y ago
  I hope, I want to get rich from semi stocks that were cheap in 22/23
treprinum 3y ago
Anything related to AI is going absolutely crazy right now. I doubled my comp recently and had to reject multiple offers.
- morelandjs 3y ago
  May I ask where you are working now?
  - treprinum 3y ago
    As an independent consultant; thinking about starting my own AI company as I can build full MVPs with ChatGPT and vector DBs in like 2 weeks and there is so much demand.
    - OneMorePerson 3y ago
      Would you consider working with others? I'm curious about this whole product area
      - treprinum 3y ago
        Maybe but right now I have some prototype in the works and a potential customer who requested it so any colab would have to wait until that is done.
    - lylejantzi3rd 3y ago
      > I can build full MVPs with ChatGPT and vector DBs in like 2 weeks To do what? What's the value proposition with AI these days? I have no clue because all I see is the hype.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
- 7thaccount 3y ago
  Is that still going on? I figured things would be saturated by now.
Tade0 3y ago
It's too early to say - we will have to wait for September, when the backlog of recruitment targets from two quarters will have to be flushed. In any case over here in Poland - a fairly popular outsourcing destination - FAANG have been hiring all this time. Basically some jobs permanently moved to where employers can get away with paying 50-70% of what they used to. Recruitment is also being increasingly outsourced - your standard corporate drone contracts are handled by people who don't speak the local language.
bettercallsalad 3y ago
I am not a macro-expert but I follow several who I consider are. The view seems to be right now this macro environment is very similar to what we had during 1940s, where we had persistent (with fluctuations but upward trend) inflations due to fiscal spendings (war in 1940s vs Covid this time). By this theory, this is just a “pause” before inflation sticks again and shows a persistent outlook. BoE already acknowledged this. Part of the issue is of course war in Europe causing energy and manufacturing crisis in EU that countries like Germany hasn’t recovered from and there is not much hope it will in near future. The other part is persistent fiscal spending, a big part of which is driven by debt servicing due to rising interest rate causing some kind of vicious cycle. If you follow Fed speak, they are also more using cautious words like “pause” and not saying we are out of the woods yet. Market is of course forward looking, bond market thinks there is not much Fed can go before breaking something as you can see in the spread of interest rate between 10Y vs 2/3Y. I don’t think anyone really knows but Wage growth is persistent and productivity is clearly down. I bet the market will look much gloomier once the Q2 numbers start coming out and show margins are clearly down.
kypro 3y ago
Reminder to please state your location if giving anecdotes. I'm from the UK. I was looking for job in January. I have never seen the market so quiet. I found a role (contract), but according to recruiters I was quite lucky to do so. It's picked up a lot since then in terms of total number of jobs, but I've noticed rates have significantly dropped from 2021 / 2022 levels. I'd say on average rates have dropped around 20% so a £500/day contract in early 2022 will now be around £400. I've noticed certain sectors of the economy seem to be a little strong. Government, health care, AI and luxury goods / services have been a common theme among roles I've noticed. In terms of when it will make a full recovery I have no idea. I think here in the UK things will only continue to get worse as rates continue to rise, the government is forced to continue to raise taxes on individuals and companies to fund its increasing levels spending, and the economy continues to slow as a result. I'd give it at least a year to recovery fully, but it's hard to project too far out right now given AI trends. It's quite possible 2021-2022 was the best it was ever going to get for our profession.
- huijzer 3y ago
  > It's quite possible 2021-2022 was the best it was ever going to get for our profession. People probably said the same in 2001 (after the dotcom bubble). More generally, I think averages are extremely misleading; especially for job salaries. Salaries follow a power law. So maybe the average salary for new jobs is lower, the people in the top of the power law still sign 300k+ contracts. To see this, look at vacancies for well-known AI companies. You'll find listed ranges of 150k-350k. If you can bring the right skill-set, it doesn't matter what the state of the market is. (This way of thinking is also partially what made Buffett so rich. He buys great companies in financial crises. Does he care that the world seems to go down in flames? Not really. He just looks whether it's a great company for a good price because he knows that a great company is a great company regardless of the market.)
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
epolanski 3y ago
It may not be as cold as it was months ago here in Europe, but I don't see the situation reverting to 12 months ago ever again. I think the toughest situation is for people entering the market for the first time.
datavirtue 3y ago
The market is down? I'm in Ohio, things haven't cooled off at all.
- lylejantzi3rd 3y ago
  Compared to what?
jFriedensreich 3y ago
I am in the german/ european job market as senior fulllstack dev and i see a slight reason to be optimistic but only for the last week or so, but this week might just be an exception we'll see. During the pandemic job opportunities were maybe at 5% and started to recover to maybe 15% mainly fueled by companies that profitet from the change in user behaviour. During the start of the war, the reality check for companies realising users are starting to go back to normal and companies feeling the war effects and supply chain issues combined to basically comopletely destroy the market and offers went to 0%. Since then it was nearly total 0%. But in addition i noticed also a change in jobs for the few exceptions: Offers include either AI or much more traditional tech, more java / python, much less js. This is to be expected as VC money drying out leads to less new projects and more old and profitable businesses in relation. But also applications are handled differently. Before the pandemic i could nearly always go stright to a conversation with someone and talk about development and cultural fit, now there are probably so many applicants per role, that companies check for university degrees, obsess over CVs showing multiple projects with exact same tech and having worked at FAANG or at least big known successes. Also no part time or reduced time opporties have survived as far as i can tell. Also there are nearly always weird formalities that i did not have to deal with in the boom phase, such as requesting formal pdf cover letters explaining why you want to work for that specific company or having to record a video to proof you can talk on a camera, i even saw IQ assessment tests. I dearly hope we go back to the good old times or i find a new niche.
cddotdotslash 3y ago
Anecdotal, I’m in the US (NYC) and the number of unsolicited inbound recruiter pings is back up to 2-3 per week (was getting maybe 1 every month towards the end of last year/early this year). Still down from mid last year when I was getting probably 5 messages a day.
- seattle2bay 3y ago
  What's your field and YOE?
  - cddotdotslash 3y ago
    Security engineering - 10 years
indymike 3y ago
Recruiting software founder here. Job Seekers for tech: seeing lots of people on the market, and the companies that are hiring are not offering FAANG style comp packages. Startup Funding: It's still slow, and VCs tend to be very cautious lack of easy money from Crypto + GPT uncertainty + SVB has thrown a wrench in things. When will it recover: A few years for both. Comp got crazy, especially in big tech. It will take a while for generative AI to work iteself out.
seattle2bay 3y ago
From what I've seen, it's a no. On contrary, mixed with the summer slowdown I've noticed that hiring is pretty much on hold across the board.

71 points by blingojames 3y ago

Hi, do you think the market for job seekers, Startup funding, is recovering? if not could you estimate when it will recover?

barelyauser 3y ago

Interest rates are on the rise. Money is expensive. Not recovering this year.

adaml_623 3y ago

Which country and area OP?

csomar 3y ago

It's still scared like a wet chicken. Most founders, VCs, employees, banks, etc.. and even the government itself are waiting to see how the monetary part is going to unfold before declaring anything or making any decisions. I think we should know before the end of this year.

gumby 3y ago

For fundraising, I don’t expect anything to happen over the summer but anticipate a rise come September

idkyall 3y ago

Assuming you mean the US. I think it depends a great deal on the area and part of the economy you are targeting. I have seen a ton of hiring in my local area by banks, for example. The large cap tech company(b2b) I work at is still in a hiring freeze, by contrast. I doubt that startup funding will recover much until interest rates go down, as I think the general attitude right now is pretty conservative about investment. Probably this will recover early to mid ~2024, and definitely by 2025[1] depending on when the US Fed cuts interest rates. [1]https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20230614.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcproj...

santiagobasulto 3y ago

AI hype seems to be creating a different sensation, but in reality, nobody knows. Looking at "hard facts", the yield curve is in the "most inverted" position in a LONG time. I'd still be cautious.

saberience 3y ago
The whole “yield curve inversion” thing is really overstated, even the guy who invented that idea says so. You should listen to him talk about it.
- maerF0x0 3y ago
  Please state who invented the idea, and link a talk/video :)

sixhobbits 3y ago

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/NASDAQ-100-1985to2015.svg/1200px-NASDAQ-100-1985to2015.svg.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/NA... If you look at nasdaq around the dotcom crash it also had a fake bounce before the real crash. Past doesn't predict the future but also no reason we couldn't be in a fake bounce now.

Aachen 3y ago
I think one difference with the dotcom situation is that everyone is now deeply reliant on digital and networked systems. The size of any market correction is not something I'm qualified to comment on, but I'm not sure that this particular single historic data point is going to have predictive power
- Findeton 3y ago
  Inflation is going down and that means less consumption. That means worse profits. That means less jobs. We'll see but there's a reason even the FED models are predicting a recession in Q4/Q1.
  - Aachen 3y ago
    I'm not saying there will not be a recession, specifically I wrote: > The size of any market correction is not something I'm qualified to comment on The person above me said that it might still get much worse, basing that on a rather different situation. All I said is that I would not use this specific reference data for setting future expectations in the current situation
wslh 3y ago
Yes, there are basic technical patterns that are used to repeat (or not!) but as others say in the dotcom crash there were no real Internet/technology penetration into the society: dot com companies tried to create a market that didn't exist and required time to be builts (e.g. mobile phones). Once the technology "eats everything" we are part of a new ecosystem and sometimes we are humans using tools but in many other times it is tools (e.g. ads) that are using humans. AI is having an impact in the markets, there is not question that ChatGPT inaugurates a new milestone even if at the end that AI is not so smart, it is very useful. IMHO we, humans, are the bottleneck and slowing things down: matching a buyer with a seller is slow, it requires building trust and depends on culture. If you remove humans from some activities the economy will accelerate. That does not mean that the human race will be better as a whole but the money spped will rise and money will flow in the direction of removing humans when they could be replaced.

xupybd 3y ago

Seeing some recovery here in NZ in the manufacturing industry. It's still pretty bad.

benreesman 3y ago

One anecdote here: for me personally the job/funding market collapsed in maybe December of 2022. In November I got ~10 inbound pings from credible recruiters or HR folks at credible shops a week, and that was typical of probably the last 5 or 10 years. In December it was zero and has stayed zero until this month when I’ve had 2. Outbound resumes and pinging the network was pretty much “I wish I could help you” all year until May/June and now conversations are starting to go somewhere at least in the early stages. The compensation packages people are talking are still like a quarter of what was typical a year ago if that. So it seems like we’ve got a ways to go before the market starts operating with consistent price discovery, but I’m seeing the ice crack here and there.

H8crilA 3y ago
> "compensation packages people are talking are still like a quarter of what was typical a year ago if that" You mean much less stock? I can't imagine a senior engineer getting a $50k in annual salary, only in the cash component.
- benreesman 3y ago
  I have less intuition for how equity packages are working because that tends to happen a little later in the conversation at least in my geography and at my tenure. Broadly people seem to be signaling looser equity purse strings to go along with massively tighter cash purse strings YoY. I’m sort of L7/L8 with an ML infra focus in California and total cash a year ago seemed to be ~300-400k and now people are seeming to need to “call upstairs” to talk above 150. So maybe half-ish would be closer than the quarter-ish I threw out in my comment. I was kind of factoring in inflation and that stock comp in a mature public company at a 30-40 PE is unlikely to hold up for 4 years.
  - cornholio 3y ago
    > total cash a year ago seemed to be ~300-400k That was probably an unsustainable bubble on the long run, inflation adjusted, unless you hold exceptionally rare skills that can't be replicated or taught. It was simply the result of a severely unbalanced market. I'm sure some people still make 400k+, but I'm also sure their performance and contribution is scrutinized quarterly and they are the first on the chopping block unless they hold internal political clout or are famous.

trabant00 3y ago

As long as the war in Ukraine lasts I don't think we are going to see any improvement. A lot of money is going there and so the value of the money remaining for investing, development, spending, is diminished. As for the war I initially guessed 3-5 years, now I'm guessing 10. So I'm quite pessimistic about the near future.

cmrdporcupine 3y ago
If the war does continue in the long run and the west remains committed to it (which means commitment from the next US presidential administration, too) then it will heighten and spread (scary) and there will end up being significant economic restructuring -- a real reworking of industrial capacity to support arms manufacturing -- and all bets are off on what the tech investment scene will look like. I have no doubt that the collective west can easily bury Russia in terms of an arms industry economy (it's done it before), but this is a major retooling. Time to learn to start writing software for drones/UAVs?
iammjm 3y ago
At the current attrition rates on both sides i can't imagine this was going on for 10 years. Then again i don't know your definition of "war"
- cmrdporcupine 3y ago
  This war has been going on in some form since 2014, when Russian troops first initiated hostilities in the Donbas. Even if this very active phase ends and the bulk of mobilized troops pull back from the front, as long as the Russian regime stays the same or similar I expect we'll see continued shelling and engagement along the border, and cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets for years. There's too much cost to the current Russian regime in letting a Ukraine that is not a direct client of theirs succeed and potentially thrive. It would have a domino effect and the Russian federation could disintegrate or at least the ruling elites there lose control and privilege. It does not matter to them if Russian quality of life suffers as long as Ukraine suffers more.
obscurette 3y ago

ptrrrrrrppr 3y ago

In Poland it's still a little bit slower, only serious hiring I see is for senior roles in business critical teams. No great new investments made

fidotron 3y ago

I think there are several possibilities, among them is the idea it will not recover. What has made things rebound previously is the emergence of some new platform and/or a new way to make money on a platform. For the first time in decades it feels like the low hanging fruit have all been picked and the VR/metaverse idea is not proving nearly so compelling as many hoped. In the near future I suspect any major growth in this sector will be around environmental problems, probably kicking off in earnest later this year, and fixing hilariously inefficient cloud deployments would probably count. The simple fact though is a lot of people that had been in the software industry really weren’t cut out for it, and were in the way of those that are. We will be better off when they find their true calling making money elsewhere.

ReDeiPirati 3y ago

For job seekers not at all. I just finished my job search after 5 months and 1 week. After 179 applications, 22 interviews, 2 offers later, I'd say that it's one of the toughest and miserable job market someone can find into. I job search-ed even during the pandemic, and although it was difficult, imho this one is order of magnitude worse... The Senior you are the better chance you'll have, but there is no market for JR, and I feel so bad for them because I have a few people that I care about that are in that condition and aren't able to find almost any openings. For startup funding, if you are in AI it's fine. Otherwise better presenting with very good metrics and not with the pressing needs of raising money. It's impossible to say when it will recover, but I'll echo the people in this thread that say "not this year".

frfl 3y ago
95% of positions I can find have a Senior title or higher. Position not requiring 5+ years right now is an exception, not the normal in my experience thus far. Applying even with 4 years experience and good skill match has been a 100% rejection/ghosting rate across maybe a dozen+ job applications so far. I agree with the sentiment about junior/entry level...everyone want a senior. Maybe I'm not looking at the insurance/bank/non-tech job boards and companies, maybe they have a few more junior/entry level positions. In startups and high-tech companies, 95% senior and above positions only.
- the_only_law 3y ago
  I’ve noticed a shitton of specialist jobs with less and less generalist ones in the “cost-centerL side of companies. Most of my professional experience is in .NET stuff and I swear everything I go to search for jobs now they wants a senior/principal/whatever developer who’s an expert with whatever weird obscure COTS software the company uses. I’ve also seen a surprising amount of jobs for people with Unity experience, sometimes in some pretty interesting domains.

Macha 3y ago

Can't speak for startups, not a big employer in my market (possibly this is the cause of the mitigated impact here), but as for job seekers: 2021/2022 were insane here. Recruiters trying every angle to get your attention, companies doubling in size. It feels like here (Ireland) though, the retreat was much less pronounced. It feels more like 2019/2020 than any kind of crash. I know people who have been laid off, they've found other jobs at comparable pay. I know people who've moved for more pay. _I've_ moved for significantly more pay and a more firm commitment to wfh. There are some things that are unhealthy for sure. The market seems to have bifurcated between grads/juniors who are having a much harder time breaking in than previously, and mid level + who are basically unaffected. Possibly this will make its way up the ladder over time, but it basically started with the grad/junior market in 2020 before the interest rate increases.

waihtis 3y ago
Europe-based companies probably did a lot less junk hires and that's why things appear to be more stable here.
- Tepix 3y ago
  Indeed the DAX (german stock index) is at an all-time high.
- that_guy_iain 3y ago
  I think also, they're a lot smaller and getting rid of less people so it doesn't seem as big. One thing is many basically tried to encourage people to leave put them on performance plans, etc and do everything they could to avoid layoffs. So companies have been downsizing but not annoying any layoffs because they just worked people out instead. I also, suspect there may be quite some way to go before it's all said and done.
saargrin 3y ago
wait till full impact of reasonably capable AI coding engines hits juniors will be basically unhireable :/

amelius 3y ago

How about the semiconductor shortages, is the situation getting better?

hardware2win 3y ago
I hope, I want to get rich from semi stocks that were cheap in 22/23

treprinum 3y ago

Anything related to AI is going absolutely crazy right now. I doubled my comp recently and had to reject multiple offers.

morelandjs 3y ago
May I ask where you are working now?
- treprinum 3y ago
  As an independent consultant; thinking about starting my own AI company as I can build full MVPs with ChatGPT and vector DBs in like 2 weeks and there is so much demand.
  - OneMorePerson 3y ago
    Would you consider working with others? I'm curious about this whole product area
    - treprinum 3y ago
      Maybe but right now I have some prototype in the works and a potential customer who requested it so any colab would have to wait until that is done.
  - lylejantzi3rd 3y ago
    > I can build full MVPs with ChatGPT and vector DBs in like 2 weeks To do what? What's the value proposition with AI these days? I have no clue because all I see is the hype.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
7thaccount 3y ago
Is that still going on? I figured things would be saturated by now.

Tade0 3y ago

It's too early to say - we will have to wait for September, when the backlog of recruitment targets from two quarters will have to be flushed. In any case over here in Poland - a fairly popular outsourcing destination - FAANG have been hiring all this time. Basically some jobs permanently moved to where employers can get away with paying 50-70% of what they used to. Recruitment is also being increasingly outsourced - your standard corporate drone contracts are handled by people who don't speak the local language.

bettercallsalad 3y ago

I am not a macro-expert but I follow several who I consider are. The view seems to be right now this macro environment is very similar to what we had during 1940s, where we had persistent (with fluctuations but upward trend) inflations due to fiscal spendings (war in 1940s vs Covid this time). By this theory, this is just a “pause” before inflation sticks again and shows a persistent outlook. BoE already acknowledged this. Part of the issue is of course war in Europe causing energy and manufacturing crisis in EU that countries like Germany hasn’t recovered from and there is not much hope it will in near future. The other part is persistent fiscal spending, a big part of which is driven by debt servicing due to rising interest rate causing some kind of vicious cycle. If you follow Fed speak, they are also more using cautious words like “pause” and not saying we are out of the woods yet. Market is of course forward looking, bond market thinks there is not much Fed can go before breaking something as you can see in the spread of interest rate between 10Y vs 2/3Y. I don’t think anyone really knows but Wage growth is persistent and productivity is clearly down. I bet the market will look much gloomier once the Q2 numbers start coming out and show margins are clearly down.

kypro 3y ago

Reminder to please state your location if giving anecdotes. I'm from the UK. I was looking for job in January. I have never seen the market so quiet. I found a role (contract), but according to recruiters I was quite lucky to do so. It's picked up a lot since then in terms of total number of jobs, but I've noticed rates have significantly dropped from 2021 / 2022 levels. I'd say on average rates have dropped around 20% so a £500/day contract in early 2022 will now be around £400. I've noticed certain sectors of the economy seem to be a little strong. Government, health care, AI and luxury goods / services have been a common theme among roles I've noticed. In terms of when it will make a full recovery I have no idea. I think here in the UK things will only continue to get worse as rates continue to rise, the government is forced to continue to raise taxes on individuals and companies to fund its increasing levels spending, and the economy continues to slow as a result. I'd give it at least a year to recovery fully, but it's hard to project too far out right now given AI trends. It's quite possible 2021-2022 was the best it was ever going to get for our profession.

huijzer 3y ago
> It's quite possible 2021-2022 was the best it was ever going to get for our profession. People probably said the same in 2001 (after the dotcom bubble). More generally, I think averages are extremely misleading; especially for job salaries. Salaries follow a power law. So maybe the average salary for new jobs is lower, the people in the top of the power law still sign 300k+ contracts. To see this, look at vacancies for well-known AI companies. You'll find listed ranges of 150k-350k. If you can bring the right skill-set, it doesn't matter what the state of the market is. (This way of thinking is also partially what made Buffett so rich. He buys great companies in financial crises. Does he care that the world seems to go down in flames? Not really. He just looks whether it's a great company for a good price because he knows that a great company is a great company regardless of the market.)
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]

epolanski 3y ago

It may not be as cold as it was months ago here in Europe, but I don't see the situation reverting to 12 months ago ever again. I think the toughest situation is for people entering the market for the first time.

datavirtue 3y ago

The market is down? I'm in Ohio, things haven't cooled off at all.

lylejantzi3rd 3y ago
Compared to what?

jFriedensreich 3y ago

I am in the german/ european job market as senior fulllstack dev and i see a slight reason to be optimistic but only for the last week or so, but this week might just be an exception we'll see. During the pandemic job opportunities were maybe at 5% and started to recover to maybe 15% mainly fueled by companies that profitet from the change in user behaviour. During the start of the war, the reality check for companies realising users are starting to go back to normal and companies feeling the war effects and supply chain issues combined to basically comopletely destroy the market and offers went to 0%. Since then it was nearly total 0%. But in addition i noticed also a change in jobs for the few exceptions: Offers include either AI or much more traditional tech, more java / python, much less js. This is to be expected as VC money drying out leads to less new projects and more old and profitable businesses in relation. But also applications are handled differently. Before the pandemic i could nearly always go stright to a conversation with someone and talk about development and cultural fit, now there are probably so many applicants per role, that companies check for university degrees, obsess over CVs showing multiple projects with exact same tech and having worked at FAANG or at least big known successes. Also no part time or reduced time opporties have survived as far as i can tell. Also there are nearly always weird formalities that i did not have to deal with in the boom phase, such as requesting formal pdf cover letters explaining why you want to work for that specific company or having to record a video to proof you can talk on a camera, i even saw IQ assessment tests. I dearly hope we go back to the good old times or i find a new niche.

cddotdotslash 3y ago

Anecdotal, I’m in the US (NYC) and the number of unsolicited inbound recruiter pings is back up to 2-3 per week (was getting maybe 1 every month towards the end of last year/early this year). Still down from mid last year when I was getting probably 5 messages a day.

seattle2bay 3y ago
What's your field and YOE?
- cddotdotslash 3y ago
  Security engineering - 10 years

indymike 3y ago

Recruiting software founder here. Job Seekers for tech: seeing lots of people on the market, and the companies that are hiring are not offering FAANG style comp packages. Startup Funding: It's still slow, and VCs tend to be very cautious lack of easy money from Crypto + GPT uncertainty + SVB has thrown a wrench in things. When will it recover: A few years for both. Comp got crazy, especially in big tech. It will take a while for generative AI to work iteself out.

seattle2bay 3y ago

From what I've seen, it's a no. On contrary, mixed with the summer slowdown I've noticed that hiring is pretty much on hold across the board.