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I don’t understand why it can’t be both: SF is degenerating when it comes to random crime AND this murder wasn’t by some random thug. Always important to refle

I don’t understand why it can’t be both: SF is degenerating when it comes to random crime AND this murder wasn’t by some random thug. Always important to reflect on whether stances like "SF is degenerating" are based on a rational analysis of what is actually happening, versus a more emotional response to stories that might be more like the topic of this post, just with less visibility into the exact circumstances of what happened. Not saying that's likely happening here, but the clear response to the original news was that this was the perfect example of what SF is becoming. How often does that assumption happen?

tsunamifury 3y ago
You can appeal to facts and being as rational as you want, but people leave because of how they feel.
- bilbo0s 3y ago
  I'm not the person you're responding to but I believe the point is that people leaving, doesn't make Bay Area degeneration a fact. Only actual Bay Area degeneration, can make Bay Area degeneration a fact. We need to know who is moving, who is coming in, the economics of the region, geological suitability to population demands, needs of the larger state and nation as it relates to the region. And on and on and on. A blog post about a guy who didn't like the dog poo in the Mission is not nearly enough data to draw the conclusions most of us were drawing. That includes myself. But after the glaring intellectual lapses I engaged in subsequent to the Asian mass shootings and the killing of the crypto exec, the inner me is attempting to reassert rational order by demanding intellectual honesty and logic. All of which is now firmly demonstrating to me that facts don't care about feelings, and will gleefully bite you in the ass if they don't align with the world view or narrative that you're emotionally comfortable with.
  - stanfordkid 3y ago
    Just because an economist wrote a utilitarian calculus saying "this is what makes a city great" doesn't make it so. The logic they use to define "good" ultimately has, at it's deepest core a morality. The morality that "longevity is good" "per capita GDP good", "average happiness good" ... is not an objective fact and has no bearing on how human beings measure greatness. The anesthetized bug-brained western homo-economicus would probably be laughed at by a Spartan warrior ... is one objectively a "better" human than the other?
  - bryananderson 3y ago
    > We need to know who is moving, who is coming in, the economics of the region, geological suitability to population demands, needs of the larger state and nation as it relates to the region. And on and on and on. Exactly. And it turns out we know the answer: California has been hemorrhaging residents for 30 years and they are overwhelmingly lower-income, albeit with a recent surge in higher-income departures which correlates with the shift to remote work. https://www.ppic.org/blog/whos-leaving-california-and-whos-moving-in/ https://www.ppic.org/blog/whos-leaving-california-and-whos-m... https://calmatters.org/california-divide/2020/01/not-the-golden-state-anymore-middle-and-low-income-people-leaving-california/ https://calmatters.org/california-divide/2020/01/not-the-gol... It's the housing, y'all. All of it. The homelessness vastly out of proportion to the area's drug-addiction and mental-illness rates. The property crime. The exodus. All of it. It's all the housing.
- lazyasciiart 3y ago
  The overwhelming emotion that people feel as they decide to leave San Francisco is "my god, housing is expensive!"
  - itsdrewmiller 3y ago
    "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded."
  - kelnos 3y ago
    Which is funny, because if everyone were leaving SF because of high crime rates or whatever, housing would... not be so expensive.
smsm42 3y ago
I've seen SF degenerating with my very own eyes and smelled it with my very own nose. Yes, this particular case may or may not be (we don't have jury decision yet) part of this pattern. But no amount of "akshually, this carefully picked statistic clearly shows that the crime is much better than it was in 1980s!" is going to change how I felt when I went to SF and how my eyes watered from the urine stench when I tried to ride BART in the city. Call me irrational as much as you want - but this is what being there felt lately, and it's obvious it is not only my personal point of view.
- slg 3y ago
  I don't live in San Francisco. I can't tell you exactly what is going on in the ground, so I don't know who is right here. However, this comment is falling into the exact situation that OP was trying to warn about. You are using an anecdote to dismiss statistics because the anecdote is a powerful emotional narrative that feels true. It is after all your own personal experience. However, that experience might not be an accurate representation of reality. OP warned to keep that in mind. Your response is effectively saying "no, my emotional narrative feels true so I'm sticking with it." Maybe you are right and your emotional narrative is true. As I said, I don't know. But I'll tell you if one side of a debate has statistics and the other side has feelings, I think it is smart to side with the side that has statistics.
  - nradov 3y ago
    The problem is that official statistics are worse than useless because most victims of minor crimes never file police reports. And I don't think you'll find any statistics at all on the intensity of odors in public transit stations.
    - slg 3y ago
      >most victims of minor crimes never file police reports Minor crimes like murder?
    - pb7 3y ago
      In that case, statistics in all cities should be equally as error prone. Statistics also don't collect how many annoying people are blasting shitty music on subways or how many morons are rolling coal in lifted trucks. There are unpleasant people everywhere.

tsunamifury 3y ago

You can appeal to facts and being as rational as you want, but people leave because of how they feel.

bilbo0s 3y ago
I'm not the person you're responding to but I believe the point is that people leaving, doesn't make Bay Area degeneration a fact. Only actual Bay Area degeneration, can make Bay Area degeneration a fact. We need to know who is moving, who is coming in, the economics of the region, geological suitability to population demands, needs of the larger state and nation as it relates to the region. And on and on and on. A blog post about a guy who didn't like the dog poo in the Mission is not nearly enough data to draw the conclusions most of us were drawing. That includes myself. But after the glaring intellectual lapses I engaged in subsequent to the Asian mass shootings and the killing of the crypto exec, the inner me is attempting to reassert rational order by demanding intellectual honesty and logic. All of which is now firmly demonstrating to me that facts don't care about feelings, and will gleefully bite you in the ass if they don't align with the world view or narrative that you're emotionally comfortable with.
- stanfordkid 3y ago
  Just because an economist wrote a utilitarian calculus saying "this is what makes a city great" doesn't make it so. The logic they use to define "good" ultimately has, at it's deepest core a morality. The morality that "longevity is good" "per capita GDP good", "average happiness good" ... is not an objective fact and has no bearing on how human beings measure greatness. The anesthetized bug-brained western homo-economicus would probably be laughed at by a Spartan warrior ... is one objectively a "better" human than the other?
- bryananderson 3y ago
  > We need to know who is moving, who is coming in, the economics of the region, geological suitability to population demands, needs of the larger state and nation as it relates to the region. And on and on and on. Exactly. And it turns out we know the answer: California has been hemorrhaging residents for 30 years and they are overwhelmingly lower-income, albeit with a recent surge in higher-income departures which correlates with the shift to remote work. https://www.ppic.org/blog/whos-leaving-california-and-whos-moving-in/ https://www.ppic.org/blog/whos-leaving-california-and-whos-m... https://calmatters.org/california-divide/2020/01/not-the-golden-state-anymore-middle-and-low-income-people-leaving-california/ https://calmatters.org/california-divide/2020/01/not-the-gol... It's the housing, y'all. All of it. The homelessness vastly out of proportion to the area's drug-addiction and mental-illness rates. The property crime. The exodus. All of it. It's all the housing.
lazyasciiart 3y ago
The overwhelming emotion that people feel as they decide to leave San Francisco is "my god, housing is expensive!"
- itsdrewmiller 3y ago
  "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded."
- kelnos 3y ago
  Which is funny, because if everyone were leaving SF because of high crime rates or whatever, housing would... not be so expensive.

smsm42 3y ago

I've seen SF degenerating with my very own eyes and smelled it with my very own nose. Yes, this particular case may or may not be (we don't have jury decision yet) part of this pattern. But no amount of "akshually, this carefully picked statistic clearly shows that the crime is much better than it was in 1980s!" is going to change how I felt when I went to SF and how my eyes watered from the urine stench when I tried to ride BART in the city. Call me irrational as much as you want - but this is what being there felt lately, and it's obvious it is not only my personal point of view.

slg 3y ago
I don't live in San Francisco. I can't tell you exactly what is going on in the ground, so I don't know who is right here. However, this comment is falling into the exact situation that OP was trying to warn about. You are using an anecdote to dismiss statistics because the anecdote is a powerful emotional narrative that feels true. It is after all your own personal experience. However, that experience might not be an accurate representation of reality. OP warned to keep that in mind. Your response is effectively saying "no, my emotional narrative feels true so I'm sticking with it." Maybe you are right and your emotional narrative is true. As I said, I don't know. But I'll tell you if one side of a debate has statistics and the other side has feelings, I think it is smart to side with the side that has statistics.
- nradov 3y ago
  The problem is that official statistics are worse than useless because most victims of minor crimes never file police reports. And I don't think you'll find any statistics at all on the intensity of odors in public transit stations.
  - slg 3y ago
    >most victims of minor crimes never file police reports Minor crimes like murder?
  - pb7 3y ago
    In that case, statistics in all cities should be equally as error prone. Statistics also don't collect how many annoying people are blasting shitty music on subways or how many morons are rolling coal in lifted trucks. There are unpleasant people everywhere.