9 ms·

> It what? Muddied the definition of a recession when the question came up. > Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but

> It what? Muddied the definition of a recession when the question came up. > Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but that doesn't make you right about recession predictions in general. Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions. > 2019's inflation was below target. Which target? The one the Fed determines? Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that.

Dylan16807 3y ago
> Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions. So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence? > Which target? 2% > Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that. ...have you looked at the trend, though? Inflation was climbing higher and higher until last June, and then it dropped by more than half. For the last 3-8 months the inflation rate has been about 4%.
- Operative0198 3y ago
  > So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence? Economists make wrong predictions all the time. Am saying Schiff is not exactly entirely wrong on some of the ones he's made in the past. > ...have you looked at the trend, though? Inflation was climbing higher and higher until last June, and then it dropped by more than half. For the last 3-8 months the inflation rate has been about 4%. Have you? The last time the inflation rate was even near 4% was in April 2021 [0]. [0] https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate
  - Dylan16807 3y ago
    Wrong chart. That's a rolling average of 12 months. The peak was in June, so it's still dragging the yearly number up. The last 8 months were much lower than the previous several. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mom https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mo... https://i.imgur.com/MBwyLjJ.png https://i.imgur.com/MBwyLjJ.png Though that chart also shows inflation dropping...
    - Operative0198 3y ago
      I don't what you are on about. The chart figures I linked is sourced from the monthly CPI rate shared by BLS every month. You are obviously trolling at this point.
      - dalyons 3y ago
        It’s not trolling just because you aren’t understanding what’s being said. Recent MoM figures show inflation is way down, the annualized will follow down shortly.
      - Dylan16807 3y ago
        The main inflation number that everyone talks about compares each month to one year previous. When inflation changes rapidly, it gives you outdated information. When you look at the underlying data for each month compared to the previous month, you can see that the spike was higher than 9% and we are currently lower than 6%.

Dylan16807 3y ago

> Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions. So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence? > Which target? 2% > Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that. ...have you looked at the trend, though? Inflation was climbing higher and higher until last June, and then it dropped by more than half. For the last 3-8 months the inflation rate has been about 4%.

Operative0198 3y ago
> So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence? Economists make wrong predictions all the time. Am saying Schiff is not exactly entirely wrong on some of the ones he's made in the past. > ...have you looked at the trend, though? Inflation was climbing higher and higher until last June, and then it dropped by more than half. For the last 3-8 months the inflation rate has been about 4%. Have you? The last time the inflation rate was even near 4% was in April 2021 [0]. [0] https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate
- Dylan16807 3y ago
  Wrong chart. That's a rolling average of 12 months. The peak was in June, so it's still dragging the yearly number up. The last 8 months were much lower than the previous several. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mom https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mo... https://i.imgur.com/MBwyLjJ.png https://i.imgur.com/MBwyLjJ.png Though that chart also shows inflation dropping...
  - Operative0198 3y ago
    I don't what you are on about. The chart figures I linked is sourced from the monthly CPI rate shared by BLS every month. You are obviously trolling at this point.
    - dalyons 3y ago
      It’s not trolling just because you aren’t understanding what’s being said. Recent MoM figures show inflation is way down, the annualized will follow down shortly.
    - Dylan16807 3y ago
      The main inflation number that everyone talks about compares each month to one year previous. When inflation changes rapidly, it gives you outdated information. When you look at the underlying data for each month compared to the previous month, you can see that the spike was higher than 9% and we are currently lower than 6%.