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How long until ASIC mining to become unprofitable?

by rouxz 4y ago

paxys 4y ago
Mining will never really be unprofitable, because the size of the pool will just regulate itself as needed. As the price falls, people running more efficient mining setups (read: cheaper electricity) will get a larger % of profits as others drop out.
- Gigachad 4y ago
  Meaning the drop in value is a massive benefit to the planet as miners shut their setups down.
  - scotty79 4y ago
    It's a great time to buy mining hardware and invest into renewables so you can mine like crazy during next ride up in 2024-2025.
    - Gigachad 4y ago
      Mining hardware becomes obsolete after 6 months because more efficient chips come in which every other miner has. So they all get e wasted constantly. It’s a negative roi to mine on old hardware.
      - wmf 4y ago
        This is less true now due to maturing of ASIC designs and the slowing of Moore's Law. N5-based miners could last for years.
      - scotty79 4y ago
        At some point this has to stop as bitcoin ASIC manufacturing reaches top tier of available technology. Not sure if this moment already came so it's risky, but at some point energy and energy generation hardware will dominate the cost of mining bitcoin.
- poulpy123 4y ago
  Ah yes the magic invisible hand of the market
  - wmf 4y ago
    Miners have shut off; it's not hypothetical. Mining never seems to reach perfect equilibrium because of various time lags but the market does work.
bogota 4y ago
Pretty hard to say since it depends on the price you pay for electricity. But you can just watch the difficulty adjusting to see when people have started to turn off miners
paulgb 4y ago
Here's a 10-Q filing from a miner from yesterday[1] They mined 1,047 bitcoin from July, Aug, Sept. Their cost of revenue for mining works out to $13.5k per coin. But that doesn't include the cost of the equipment they use (which, by value, is mainly the ASIC miners). If you add in the figure that they provide for equipment depreciation, it's an additional $25k per coin. (Full disclosure: I'm short this stock) [1] https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1167419/000107997322001403/riot-20220930.htm https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1167419/0001...
Nomentatus 4y ago
It is now; machines are being turned off as even the marginal(electricity) costs are now more than the return. Mining in case the price goes up doesn't make sense if you can just buy bitcoin for less than the electricity cost, of course.

How long until ASIC mining to become unprofitable?

by rouxz 4y ago

How long until ASIC mining to become unprofitable?

Mining will never really be unprofitable, because the size of the pool will just regulate itself as needed. As the price falls, people running more efficient mining setups (read: cheaper electricity) will get a larger % of profits as others drop out.

Gigachad 4y ago
Meaning the drop in value is a massive benefit to the planet as miners shut their setups down.
- scotty79 4y ago
  It's a great time to buy mining hardware and invest into renewables so you can mine like crazy during next ride up in 2024-2025.
  - Gigachad 4y ago
    Mining hardware becomes obsolete after 6 months because more efficient chips come in which every other miner has. So they all get e wasted constantly. It’s a negative roi to mine on old hardware.
    - wmf 4y ago
      This is less true now due to maturing of ASIC designs and the slowing of Moore's Law. N5-based miners could last for years.
    - scotty79 4y ago
      At some point this has to stop as bitcoin ASIC manufacturing reaches top tier of available technology. Not sure if this moment already came so it's risky, but at some point energy and energy generation hardware will dominate the cost of mining bitcoin.
poulpy123 4y ago
Ah yes the magic invisible hand of the market
- wmf 4y ago
  Miners have shut off; it's not hypothetical. Mining never seems to reach perfect equilibrium because of various time lags but the market does work.

bogota 4y ago

Pretty hard to say since it depends on the price you pay for electricity. But you can just watch the difficulty adjusting to see when people have started to turn off miners

paulgb 4y ago

Here's a 10-Q filing from a miner from yesterday[1] They mined 1,047 bitcoin from July, Aug, Sept. Their cost of revenue for mining works out to $13.5k per coin. But that doesn't include the cost of the equipment they use (which, by value, is mainly the ASIC miners). If you add in the figure that they provide for equipment depreciation, it's an additional $25k per coin. (Full disclosure: I'm short this stock) [1] https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1167419/000107997322001403/riot-20220930.htm https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1167419/0001...

Nomentatus 4y ago

It is now; machines are being turned off as even the marginal(electricity) costs are now more than the return. Mining in case the price goes up doesn't make sense if you can just buy bitcoin for less than the electricity cost, of course.