6 ms·

It seems so obvious to us that this is a short term win at the expense of the long term. I wonder if data driven companies like this are locked into local minim

It seems so obvious to us that this is a short term win at the expense of the long term. I wonder if data driven companies like this are locked into local minimums via tons of short term optimizations to boost metrics. In optimization algorithms like stochastic gradient descent, some form of entropy (crucially temporarily decreasing fitness) or exploration (having parallel evaluations of the fitness function) is necessary to not get stuck. What mechanism incentivizes this in a large corporation, where every initiative must aim to improve the business and there is the capability to actually measure it all?

foobarian 4y ago
The mechanism is called Visionary CEO and good luck with that.
- nradov 4y ago
  In this case the CEO's stated vision is to dominate the AR/VR market. So in that context it makes sense for Meta to treat legacy properties like Instagram as cash cows and maximize short-term revenue at the expense of long-term growth. That revenue can be used to finance new AR/VR products. We'll find out in 10 years if Mark Zuckerberg was a visionary genius or an idiot.
  - addicted 4y ago
    As Google is finding out though that user trust is easy to break and can greatly impact your future products’ success. If Meta continues destroying users’ faith in Instagram the way they have in Facebook, it will gravely hurt any attempt by Meta to build their AR/VR empires. A good counter example is Apple, a company which actually realized how impactful this can be with their Mac business. Apple’s Mac business is their second smallest, ahead only of the iPad (which thanks to shared development costs and components with iOS is almost certainly more profitable) and behind accessories, services and iPhone. And yet, Apple invested significant R&D, and spent years publicly apologizing for the state of the mac, humiliatingly reversing course in some decisions and promising they would do better until they actually did better. Because Apple recognized that their commitment to the Mac meant their customers could trust them. And the years they were ignoring it (probably in a misguided belief that the relatively small size of the segment meant it didn’t matter) led to a massive loss of trust that was clearly spilling over into their iOS products as well.
- BobbyJo 4y ago
  Specifically, Mark has allowed Facebooks mission to change from "giving people the power to build community and bring the world closer together" to "optimize ad revenue from a pre-existing group of users", and is now doing the same to Instagram. Look at the changes made to Facebook in the last five years and tell me, with a straight face, that they were all made with the original mission statement in mind. A Visionary CEO would chase the mission and expect revenue to follow.
  - KptMarchewa 4y ago
    >"giving people the power to build community and bring the world closer together" If that was ever the case. In words of Mark Zuckerberg "dumb fucks".
    - jbullock35 4y ago
      The evidence for that quotation is weak. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32937710#32938981 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32937710#32938981.
      - cityzen 4y ago
        Right, from zuck himself? "They trust me — dumb fucks," says Zuckerberg in one of the instant messages, first published by former Valleywag Nicholas Carlson at Silicon Alley Insider, and now confirmed by Zuckerberg himself in Jose Antonio Vargas's New Yorker piece. Zuckerberg now tells Vargas, "I think I've grown and learned a lot" since those instant messages. https://www.gawker.com/5636765/facebook-ceo-admits-to-calling-users-dumb-fucks https://www.gawker.com/5636765/facebook-ceo-admits-to-callin...
        jbullock35 4y ago
        Gawker didn't get it quite right. Here's what the New Yorker article [1] actually says: > When I asked Zuckerberg about the IMs that have already been published online, and that I have also obtained and confirmed, he said that he “absolutely” regretted them. It doesn't say that Zuckerberg confirmed the particular quotation that you offered. That said, I take your point. The New Yorker author said that he had confirmed the message containing the quote, and Zuckerberg didn't deny sending the message, and he expressed regret about it. [1] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/09/20/the-face-of-facebook https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/09/20/the-face-of-fa...
ReaLNero 4y ago
> this are locked into local minimum Merely having statistics won't lead you to local optima, it's the incentive structure. Public companies need to have a positive second derivative on their revenue, which trickles down to PMs and directors doing anything in their power to improve the quarterly numbers at long-term costs.
- criddell 4y ago
  > Public companies need to have a positive second derivative on their revenue I don't think that's true. In fact I don't think very many public companies have accelerating revenue.
  - wlesieutre 4y ago
    Yeah that's more of a startup mentality where you're trying to prove to your next round of investors that your growth is going to be 10x then 100x then 1000x and will then eat an entire industry. If someone's buying Meta stock at this point it's pretty obviously not on an infinite growth trajectory.
    - bombcar 4y ago
      I suspect they're still pretending it has growth left; once it's clear that they DO NOT have much growth left, the stock will slowly settle to a "reasonable" p/e. Or suddenly plummet to one, who knows.
      - orangepurple 4y ago
        > the stock will slowly settle to a "reasonable" p/e Which law of physics is this the result of?
        bombcar 4y ago
        If there’s no growth forecasted investors are less likely to bid the stock up, as other investments may do better. Note that “reasonable” may not be Buffet’s desired p/e.
rchaud 4y ago
There is no long term for IG or FB as we know it. MetaVR and MetaAI is what those companies will become. All IG/FB can do now is squeeze as much ad revenue as possible while there are still hundreds of millions using it daily.
- tmpz22 4y ago
  My mom still uses facebook a lot. It sucks to think that an older retiree is now caught up in this cycle.
- _visgean 4y ago
  There it no reason to kill existing product when you have a new. Merging instagram into metaverse won't make sense until people have some reasonable way to experience metaverse - and majority does not and wont have for a foreseable future.. And even then it wont be appropriate in many context where people watch instagram these days - public transport, work, toilets.. cant imagine anyone bringing their vr/ar goggles to these places..
floor2 4y ago
It takes a better alternative for people to change though. Spotify is borderline unusable to me now, it's about 50/50 ads/songs. But I still haven't uninstalled it. I think my usage is now something like, after listening to 5 songs and 5 ads, I get frustrated and switch to a podcast. But, I don't know of any alternative with less ads that works on my phone, so I'm still a user (despite listening for an hour a week instead of 40 hours a week). The current internet media giants got huge by burning VC money for years to operate with few or no ads, and now Insta/Youtube/Spotify are all basically as bad as broadcast TV and radio for ad density. But is anyone going to give a new upstart a billion dollars and 5 years to host ad-free content to establish a new competitor?
- robertlagrant 4y ago
  Their $9.99/mo sub tier is pretty reasonable, I think. It's 40% less if you're a student. Course, we have the family plan, and UK prices, so I get ruined. But now I have Netflix I hate ads with a passion, so there we go.
- CuriouslyC 4y ago
  Get a modified youtube app with adblock and background play.
  - adave 4y ago
    Not as good as the main part is audio discovery and auto playlists which are crap. Only pointed out since a lot of people tend to think its a 1:1 replacement not including the tech knowhow.
- wwweston 4y ago
  I don't use Spotify much (afaict they've done more to damage artist economics than outright piracy), but at least they have a paid/premium layer of service that one can pay for and focus on specific desired content without add interruptions. Facebook and Instagram? Nope. You can't even pay them for an experience which lets you focus on what you want. Which means that the only economic incentives come from the ad revenue side, and the user engagement side will be seen primarily in terms of manipulation.
otikik 4y ago
“Prioritize this quarter. (Next one, I’ll probably have moved to the A, the N or the G with increased compensation.)”

foobarian 4y ago

The mechanism is called Visionary CEO and good luck with that.

nradov 4y ago
In this case the CEO's stated vision is to dominate the AR/VR market. So in that context it makes sense for Meta to treat legacy properties like Instagram as cash cows and maximize short-term revenue at the expense of long-term growth. That revenue can be used to finance new AR/VR products. We'll find out in 10 years if Mark Zuckerberg was a visionary genius or an idiot.
- addicted 4y ago
  As Google is finding out though that user trust is easy to break and can greatly impact your future products’ success. If Meta continues destroying users’ faith in Instagram the way they have in Facebook, it will gravely hurt any attempt by Meta to build their AR/VR empires. A good counter example is Apple, a company which actually realized how impactful this can be with their Mac business. Apple’s Mac business is their second smallest, ahead only of the iPad (which thanks to shared development costs and components with iOS is almost certainly more profitable) and behind accessories, services and iPhone. And yet, Apple invested significant R&D, and spent years publicly apologizing for the state of the mac, humiliatingly reversing course in some decisions and promising they would do better until they actually did better. Because Apple recognized that their commitment to the Mac meant their customers could trust them. And the years they were ignoring it (probably in a misguided belief that the relatively small size of the segment meant it didn’t matter) led to a massive loss of trust that was clearly spilling over into their iOS products as well.
BobbyJo 4y ago
Specifically, Mark has allowed Facebooks mission to change from "giving people the power to build community and bring the world closer together" to "optimize ad revenue from a pre-existing group of users", and is now doing the same to Instagram. Look at the changes made to Facebook in the last five years and tell me, with a straight face, that they were all made with the original mission statement in mind. A Visionary CEO would chase the mission and expect revenue to follow.
- KptMarchewa 4y ago
  >"giving people the power to build community and bring the world closer together" If that was ever the case. In words of Mark Zuckerberg "dumb fucks".
  - jbullock35 4y ago
    The evidence for that quotation is weak. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32937710#32938981 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32937710#32938981.
    - cityzen 4y ago
      Right, from zuck himself? "They trust me — dumb fucks," says Zuckerberg in one of the instant messages, first published by former Valleywag Nicholas Carlson at Silicon Alley Insider, and now confirmed by Zuckerberg himself in Jose Antonio Vargas's New Yorker piece. Zuckerberg now tells Vargas, "I think I've grown and learned a lot" since those instant messages. https://www.gawker.com/5636765/facebook-ceo-admits-to-calling-users-dumb-fucks https://www.gawker.com/5636765/facebook-ceo-admits-to-callin...
      - jbullock35 4y ago
        Gawker didn't get it quite right. Here's what the New Yorker article [1] actually says: > When I asked Zuckerberg about the IMs that have already been published online, and that I have also obtained and confirmed, he said that he “absolutely” regretted them. It doesn't say that Zuckerberg confirmed the particular quotation that you offered. That said, I take your point. The New Yorker author said that he had confirmed the message containing the quote, and Zuckerberg didn't deny sending the message, and he expressed regret about it. [1] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/09/20/the-face-of-facebook https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/09/20/the-face-of-fa...

ReaLNero 4y ago

> this are locked into local minimum Merely having statistics won't lead you to local optima, it's the incentive structure. Public companies need to have a positive second derivative on their revenue, which trickles down to PMs and directors doing anything in their power to improve the quarterly numbers at long-term costs.

criddell 4y ago
> Public companies need to have a positive second derivative on their revenue I don't think that's true. In fact I don't think very many public companies have accelerating revenue.
- wlesieutre 4y ago
  Yeah that's more of a startup mentality where you're trying to prove to your next round of investors that your growth is going to be 10x then 100x then 1000x and will then eat an entire industry. If someone's buying Meta stock at this point it's pretty obviously not on an infinite growth trajectory.
  - bombcar 4y ago
    I suspect they're still pretending it has growth left; once it's clear that they DO NOT have much growth left, the stock will slowly settle to a "reasonable" p/e. Or suddenly plummet to one, who knows.
    - orangepurple 4y ago
      > the stock will slowly settle to a "reasonable" p/e Which law of physics is this the result of?
      - bombcar 4y ago
        If there’s no growth forecasted investors are less likely to bid the stock up, as other investments may do better. Note that “reasonable” may not be Buffet’s desired p/e.

rchaud 4y ago

There is no long term for IG or FB as we know it. MetaVR and MetaAI is what those companies will become. All IG/FB can do now is squeeze as much ad revenue as possible while there are still hundreds of millions using it daily.

tmpz22 4y ago
My mom still uses facebook a lot. It sucks to think that an older retiree is now caught up in this cycle.
_visgean 4y ago
There it no reason to kill existing product when you have a new. Merging instagram into metaverse won't make sense until people have some reasonable way to experience metaverse - and majority does not and wont have for a foreseable future.. And even then it wont be appropriate in many context where people watch instagram these days - public transport, work, toilets.. cant imagine anyone bringing their vr/ar goggles to these places..

floor2 4y ago

It takes a better alternative for people to change though. Spotify is borderline unusable to me now, it's about 50/50 ads/songs. But I still haven't uninstalled it. I think my usage is now something like, after listening to 5 songs and 5 ads, I get frustrated and switch to a podcast. But, I don't know of any alternative with less ads that works on my phone, so I'm still a user (despite listening for an hour a week instead of 40 hours a week). The current internet media giants got huge by burning VC money for years to operate with few or no ads, and now Insta/Youtube/Spotify are all basically as bad as broadcast TV and radio for ad density. But is anyone going to give a new upstart a billion dollars and 5 years to host ad-free content to establish a new competitor?

robertlagrant 4y ago
Their $9.99/mo sub tier is pretty reasonable, I think. It's 40% less if you're a student. Course, we have the family plan, and UK prices, so I get ruined. But now I have Netflix I hate ads with a passion, so there we go.
CuriouslyC 4y ago
Get a modified youtube app with adblock and background play.
- adave 4y ago
  Not as good as the main part is audio discovery and auto playlists which are crap. Only pointed out since a lot of people tend to think its a 1:1 replacement not including the tech knowhow.
wwweston 4y ago
I don't use Spotify much (afaict they've done more to damage artist economics than outright piracy), but at least they have a paid/premium layer of service that one can pay for and focus on specific desired content without add interruptions. Facebook and Instagram? Nope. You can't even pay them for an experience which lets you focus on what you want. Which means that the only economic incentives come from the ad revenue side, and the user engagement side will be seen primarily in terms of manipulation.

otikik 4y ago

“Prioritize this quarter. (Next one, I’ll probably have moved to the A, the N or the G with increased compensation.)”