5 ms·

Act of war by USA? (equivalent if done through ally)

by dongobongo 4y ago

brightball 4y ago
Why would the US do that?
- bobowzki 4y ago
  To strengthen Europes resolve when it gets cold?
- fuoqi 4y ago
  Because it cuts a huge temptation for Germans to find some compromise with Russia and allows them to sell LNG for huge profits?
  - ericmay 4y ago
    Doesn't pass the smell test (also we're talking about the entire EU having issues not just Germany). Gigantic risk for the US and would eventually be found out which would destroy any semblance of relations with the EU and significantly strengthen Russia's hand. US companies (and others) are going to sell LNG to Europe for huge profits anyway. These pipelines weren't deliving gas anyway The US would prefer energy markets to be stable and not have sky-high prices Russia's invasion of Ukraine was one of the greatest foreign policy gifts in United States history and it significantly strengthened US alliances across the globe and put the entire west in lockstep with each other with regards to Russia and China. Placing that gift at risk is beyond foolish.
    - gpderetta 4y ago
      Yes, if US did it and it becomes public, it would be the best gift to Putin. Then again, Russia might not have the monopoly on stupidity.
      - marginalia_nu 4y ago
        Honestly, the timing doesn't make sense. I'd maybe the US blowing the pipelines a year ago when it looked as though NS2 might conceivably go online, but given how frosty relationships are right now between the EU and Russia, and given the scramble to wean Europe off Russian gas-dependency already is in progress, there just doesn't appear to be much of a point, not in the short term and not in the long term.
        throwaway29812 4y ago
        "Why would Russia damage their own pipeline?" Why would Russia invade and annex Ukraine? The answer can be stupid people making stupid decisions, don't assume everything done by a nation-state is logical.
        marginalia_nu 4y ago
        Russia has good geopolitical reasons for invading Ukraine. The failure of NS2 is arguably also a contributing factor for going on this path.
        throwaway29812 4y ago
        > Russia has good geopolitical reasons for invading Ukraine. They had good reasons to maybe want to dominate their neighbor. What good reasons were there to risk everything over an all out land war, and what reasons remain for continuing a fight they are losing ?
        throwaway29812 4y ago
        The pipeline has become a bioweapon: > https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1576975332510298112 https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1576975332510298112
    - potatototoo99 4y ago
      Europe knows the US mistreats us, it is no secret. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to learn it was a UK submarine under US instructions for example. We know how the US spy on us, spy on private companies to favor their own, mess with our currencies, isolate us and exploit us. Uses us as cannon fodder. We remember all the times the US was caught spying on our leaders, deciding our elections, threatening invasion and abducting people. We have seen the news and read the cables. We remember when Obama told us they would not kill US citizens without a trial, only foreigners like ourselves. We know how foreign policy works. One day maybe we'll have the abnormality of leaders that work on the best interest of their people, maybe then the US will learn the world remembers. Nothing lasts forever.
      - throwrqX 4y ago
        Everything the US does to Europeans Europeans do back to them. Why do you think the spying allegations went away so quickly? Because German and French intelligence spy on the US as well, and so it's better for both parties if they just shut up about it. Everybody spies on everybody, that's the entire reason of existence for intelligence agencies that every country has.
      - mgfist 4y ago
        Europe live's on the US's teat. Ukraine and Nato do not exist with the US. Without US LNG Europe would be begging Putin for gas, leaving Ukraine to rot. Without US defense spending Russia would have rolled through Ukraine and be on its way to Berlin again. Without the US in WW2 Europe would be speaking German or Russian. On and on.
    - origin_path 4y ago
      "Gigantic risk for the US and would eventually be found out" This is predicated on the assumption that the US intelligence community would leak it anytime soon (within the current presidency). That seems like a very poor assumption. If it's never proven they did it, there's no real risk because people who don't want to believe will invent other explanations. You see it happening in this thread already - it's not the country that literally said they had ways to ensure NS2 would never activate, no, it must be the country that built it. 4D chess! "These pipelines weren't deliving gas anyway" No, but that could have been changed very quickly if wanted. All three pipelines were pressurized. NS2 was all new equipment, ready and waiting to go. "The US would prefer energy markets to be stable and not have sky-high prices" The US has consistently and strongly opposed European dependence on Russian natgas under (at least) two different presidents. Neither of them seemed to care much about the question of what to replace it with. At any rate such an operation would be signed off by Biden and highly classified, so it's not like "the US" would have an opinion on what matters more anyway, just a senile old man.
      - throwrqX 4y ago
        You act like countries in the EU don't have their own intelligence agencies. If the US was behind it they will find out very quickly.
        marshray 4y ago
        I doubt a whale can swim in water that shallow and close to shore without a dozen countries tracking it. Some kind of small underwater drone, however ... hmmm
        LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
        Would they? What about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_MS_Estonia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_MS_Estonia Some people think the 'official story' isn't right. Like it's often the case, and sometimes for good reasons.
        foverzar 4y ago
        Do they thought? When was the last time you heard Europe operating independently, or god forbid, not inline with the Five Eyes intelligence agencies?
    - electrondood 4y ago
      It doesn't pass the smell test for the simple reason that Germany and the EU were already ending dependency on Russian gas, because Russia has made it abundantly clear that any such dependency on Russia is a national security threat. This wasn't done to coerce European countries. This was done to stir chaos and make it look like someone other than Russia committed sabotage.
  - twawaaay 4y ago
    Do you realise the risks US would be taking? Like the end of NATO? I don't want to say US isn't making stupid things, but this would be a whole new level of stupid...
    - tpmx 4y ago
      I agree. Sounds more like Poland to me. And I don't really blame them. The germans are quite hard to trust.
    - hendrikrassmann 4y ago
      1. I'm not saying the US did it. 2. I just want to remind you, that you're talking about a country literally renaming their national dish to "freedom fries" over France not wanting to join in a war, started under provably false pretenses.
      - mrguyorama 4y ago
        >literally renaming their national dish to "freedom fries" Nobody actually did this. 10% of extreme "patriotic" losers wanted to do this. It did not happen.
      - gusgus01 4y ago
        French fries are not the National Dish of the USA, and it was done in the cafeterias in Congress (as well as a few other zealous restaurants). But to portray it as a country renaming their national dish is an over-exaggeration. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/congress-french-freedom-fries-iraq/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/congress-french-freedom-fr...
      - ilc 4y ago
        As a US Citizen. I laughed at "Freedom Fries" as did many I know. The US is not homogeneous or even close. As an example: I remember warning people when visiting over seas: Trump is many things. Stupid is not one. I stand by that statement. I don't agree with the man. But I will never mistake him for a total fool. Did he mis-calcuate. Thankfully, so far yes. But 2024+ will tell the truth on that, alas. Many in the US consider Trump a fool. I do not.
  - aeyes 4y ago
    Does the US even have spare capacity? Liquefaction plants or tankers aren't something you build in a day.
  - petre 4y ago
    This is as easy to execute as dropping a depth charge from a boat. Examining shipping tracks could shed some light as of who executed this attack.
  - bamboozled 4y ago
    It sounds pretty amateur, not how the US would operate
- dongobongo 4y ago
  If the pipeline started operating, which it probably would in a few months with energy catastrophe in Europe - it would be total victory for Russia: natural gas revenues through the roof, end of war, etc etc. USA for some reason believes that Russian victory is against its interests. See Biden recently: https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737 https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737
  - jcranmer 4y ago
    That's not recently, that's 2022-02-07, nearly 8 months ago, and before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
  - dongobongo 4y ago
    oops thought it was July...
    - ISL 4y ago
      There's still time to edit an error.
  - 1ris 4y ago
    That's not right, this is isn't even wrong. German policy has always been that this pipeline is a stranded assert once russia shuts it down. Keeping this as a lever and credible threat is vastly important for maintaining a somewhat secure supply of gasoline for east germany. When speaking about a energy catastrophe you really, really want this pipeline shut. In fact germany has taken measures to make sure that the pipelines will not become operational again. Confiscating and removing compressors and reuse them for the planned LNG terminals. If anybody profits from these explosions, it's germany. And russian natural gas revenues hit ground and are now searching for oil themselfs, now.
  - ajsnigrutin 4y ago
    On the other hand, this now means freezing europe and a lot of money for USA, against european peoples interests... especially for people who don't really care about ukraine, as they didn't care about afghanistan, syria, libya etc., and just want a nice life for themselves (so, most people).
- mynameishere 4y ago
  Biden actually said we would halt NS2 back in February. https://twitter.com/abc/status/1490792461979078662?s=46&t=kJAzCn_j-narPVNJR3kuww https://twitter.com/abc/status/1490792461979078662?s=46&t=kJ...
ed_balls 4y ago
Similar thing has happened on USA soil (Gas Terminal explosion)
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
bilbo0s 4y ago
Let's hope no NATO ally would be fool hardy enough to take this action. I'm uncomfortable with light hearted talk about the US and NATO being involved in this. Clearly people speaking so cavalierly about that possibility do not understand the implications of such an act in the alliance system. The purpose of an alliance is not to surprise your partners. It's to ensure your partners are not surprised. On a completely unrelated note: /s Brazil, South Africa, Kenya and Ghana. Property markets had been a little crazy as they are everywhere. I didn't think there was much upside in these markets, but I'm starting to see that perhaps these might be good places for long term residential investment afterall? Probably offer some moderate but steady returns as the insurance policies of the rats, and enormous returns as the most likely places the rats would run if things nosedive. Now I understand the USD4 million condos in Nairobi.
- LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
  "Die Hoffnung stirbt zuletzt."
- sschueller 4y ago
  The US tapped the German prime Minister Angela Merkel's phone. Not not much of an alliance there. If it serves US interest all bets are off and it's time for everyone to realize that.
dongobongo 4y ago
Little bit of circumstantial evidence: https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-resting-new-technology/ https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunit...
dongobongo 4y ago
More evidence: https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/us-blew-up-russian-gas-pipelines?utm_source=post-email-title&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/us-blew-up-russi...
- Calvin02 4y ago
  In English, evidence, conjecture, and pure speculation are very different things. This would qualify, at best, as speculation. :)

Act of war by USA? (equivalent if done through ally)

brightball 4y ago

Why would the US do that?

bobowzki 4y ago
To strengthen Europes resolve when it gets cold?
fuoqi 4y ago
Because it cuts a huge temptation for Germans to find some compromise with Russia and allows them to sell LNG for huge profits?
- ericmay 4y ago
  Doesn't pass the smell test (also we're talking about the entire EU having issues not just Germany). Gigantic risk for the US and would eventually be found out which would destroy any semblance of relations with the EU and significantly strengthen Russia's hand. US companies (and others) are going to sell LNG to Europe for huge profits anyway. These pipelines weren't deliving gas anyway The US would prefer energy markets to be stable and not have sky-high prices Russia's invasion of Ukraine was one of the greatest foreign policy gifts in United States history and it significantly strengthened US alliances across the globe and put the entire west in lockstep with each other with regards to Russia and China. Placing that gift at risk is beyond foolish.
  - gpderetta 4y ago
    Yes, if US did it and it becomes public, it would be the best gift to Putin. Then again, Russia might not have the monopoly on stupidity.
    - marginalia_nu 4y ago
      Honestly, the timing doesn't make sense. I'd maybe the US blowing the pipelines a year ago when it looked as though NS2 might conceivably go online, but given how frosty relationships are right now between the EU and Russia, and given the scramble to wean Europe off Russian gas-dependency already is in progress, there just doesn't appear to be much of a point, not in the short term and not in the long term.
      - throwaway29812 4y ago
        "Why would Russia damage their own pipeline?" Why would Russia invade and annex Ukraine? The answer can be stupid people making stupid decisions, don't assume everything done by a nation-state is logical.
        marginalia_nu 4y ago
        Russia has good geopolitical reasons for invading Ukraine. The failure of NS2 is arguably also a contributing factor for going on this path.
        throwaway29812 4y ago
        > Russia has good geopolitical reasons for invading Ukraine. They had good reasons to maybe want to dominate their neighbor. What good reasons were there to risk everything over an all out land war, and what reasons remain for continuing a fight they are losing ?
        throwaway29812 4y ago
        The pipeline has become a bioweapon: > https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1576975332510298112 https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1576975332510298112
  - potatototoo99 4y ago
    Europe knows the US mistreats us, it is no secret. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to learn it was a UK submarine under US instructions for example. We know how the US spy on us, spy on private companies to favor their own, mess with our currencies, isolate us and exploit us. Uses us as cannon fodder. We remember all the times the US was caught spying on our leaders, deciding our elections, threatening invasion and abducting people. We have seen the news and read the cables. We remember when Obama told us they would not kill US citizens without a trial, only foreigners like ourselves. We know how foreign policy works. One day maybe we'll have the abnormality of leaders that work on the best interest of their people, maybe then the US will learn the world remembers. Nothing lasts forever.
    - throwrqX 4y ago
      Everything the US does to Europeans Europeans do back to them. Why do you think the spying allegations went away so quickly? Because German and French intelligence spy on the US as well, and so it's better for both parties if they just shut up about it. Everybody spies on everybody, that's the entire reason of existence for intelligence agencies that every country has.
    - mgfist 4y ago
      Europe live's on the US's teat. Ukraine and Nato do not exist with the US. Without US LNG Europe would be begging Putin for gas, leaving Ukraine to rot. Without US defense spending Russia would have rolled through Ukraine and be on its way to Berlin again. Without the US in WW2 Europe would be speaking German or Russian. On and on.
  - origin_path 4y ago
    "Gigantic risk for the US and would eventually be found out" This is predicated on the assumption that the US intelligence community would leak it anytime soon (within the current presidency). That seems like a very poor assumption. If it's never proven they did it, there's no real risk because people who don't want to believe will invent other explanations. You see it happening in this thread already - it's not the country that literally said they had ways to ensure NS2 would never activate, no, it must be the country that built it. 4D chess! "These pipelines weren't deliving gas anyway" No, but that could have been changed very quickly if wanted. All three pipelines were pressurized. NS2 was all new equipment, ready and waiting to go. "The US would prefer energy markets to be stable and not have sky-high prices" The US has consistently and strongly opposed European dependence on Russian natgas under (at least) two different presidents. Neither of them seemed to care much about the question of what to replace it with. At any rate such an operation would be signed off by Biden and highly classified, so it's not like "the US" would have an opinion on what matters more anyway, just a senile old man.
    - throwrqX 4y ago
      You act like countries in the EU don't have their own intelligence agencies. If the US was behind it they will find out very quickly.
      - marshray 4y ago
        I doubt a whale can swim in water that shallow and close to shore without a dozen countries tracking it. Some kind of small underwater drone, however ... hmmm
      - LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
        Would they? What about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_MS_Estonia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_MS_Estonia Some people think the 'official story' isn't right. Like it's often the case, and sometimes for good reasons.
      - foverzar 4y ago
        Do they thought? When was the last time you heard Europe operating independently, or god forbid, not inline with the Five Eyes intelligence agencies?
  - electrondood 4y ago
    It doesn't pass the smell test for the simple reason that Germany and the EU were already ending dependency on Russian gas, because Russia has made it abundantly clear that any such dependency on Russia is a national security threat. This wasn't done to coerce European countries. This was done to stir chaos and make it look like someone other than Russia committed sabotage.
- twawaaay 4y ago
  Do you realise the risks US would be taking? Like the end of NATO? I don't want to say US isn't making stupid things, but this would be a whole new level of stupid...
  - tpmx 4y ago
    I agree. Sounds more like Poland to me. And I don't really blame them. The germans are quite hard to trust.
  - hendrikrassmann 4y ago
    1. I'm not saying the US did it. 2. I just want to remind you, that you're talking about a country literally renaming their national dish to "freedom fries" over France not wanting to join in a war, started under provably false pretenses.
    - mrguyorama 4y ago
      >literally renaming their national dish to "freedom fries" Nobody actually did this. 10% of extreme "patriotic" losers wanted to do this. It did not happen.
    - gusgus01 4y ago
      French fries are not the National Dish of the USA, and it was done in the cafeterias in Congress (as well as a few other zealous restaurants). But to portray it as a country renaming their national dish is an over-exaggeration. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/congress-french-freedom-fries-iraq/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/congress-french-freedom-fr...
    - ilc 4y ago
      As a US Citizen. I laughed at "Freedom Fries" as did many I know. The US is not homogeneous or even close. As an example: I remember warning people when visiting over seas: Trump is many things. Stupid is not one. I stand by that statement. I don't agree with the man. But I will never mistake him for a total fool. Did he mis-calcuate. Thankfully, so far yes. But 2024+ will tell the truth on that, alas. Many in the US consider Trump a fool. I do not.
- aeyes 4y ago
  Does the US even have spare capacity? Liquefaction plants or tankers aren't something you build in a day.
- petre 4y ago
  This is as easy to execute as dropping a depth charge from a boat. Examining shipping tracks could shed some light as of who executed this attack.
- bamboozled 4y ago
  It sounds pretty amateur, not how the US would operate
dongobongo 4y ago
If the pipeline started operating, which it probably would in a few months with energy catastrophe in Europe - it would be total victory for Russia: natural gas revenues through the roof, end of war, etc etc. USA for some reason believes that Russian victory is against its interests. See Biden recently: https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737 https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737
- jcranmer 4y ago
  That's not recently, that's 2022-02-07, nearly 8 months ago, and before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
- dongobongo 4y ago
  oops thought it was July...
  - ISL 4y ago
    There's still time to edit an error.
- 1ris 4y ago
  That's not right, this is isn't even wrong. German policy has always been that this pipeline is a stranded assert once russia shuts it down. Keeping this as a lever and credible threat is vastly important for maintaining a somewhat secure supply of gasoline for east germany. When speaking about a energy catastrophe you really, really want this pipeline shut. In fact germany has taken measures to make sure that the pipelines will not become operational again. Confiscating and removing compressors and reuse them for the planned LNG terminals. If anybody profits from these explosions, it's germany. And russian natural gas revenues hit ground and are now searching for oil themselfs, now.
- ajsnigrutin 4y ago
  On the other hand, this now means freezing europe and a lot of money for USA, against european peoples interests... especially for people who don't really care about ukraine, as they didn't care about afghanistan, syria, libya etc., and just want a nice life for themselves (so, most people).
mynameishere 4y ago
Biden actually said we would halt NS2 back in February. https://twitter.com/abc/status/1490792461979078662?s=46&t=kJAzCn_j-narPVNJR3kuww https://twitter.com/abc/status/1490792461979078662?s=46&t=kJ...

ed_balls 4y ago

Similar thing has happened on USA soil (Gas Terminal explosion)

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

bilbo0s 4y ago

Let's hope no NATO ally would be fool hardy enough to take this action. I'm uncomfortable with light hearted talk about the US and NATO being involved in this. Clearly people speaking so cavalierly about that possibility do not understand the implications of such an act in the alliance system. The purpose of an alliance is not to surprise your partners. It's to ensure your partners are not surprised. On a completely unrelated note: /s Brazil, South Africa, Kenya and Ghana. Property markets had been a little crazy as they are everywhere. I didn't think there was much upside in these markets, but I'm starting to see that perhaps these might be good places for long term residential investment afterall? Probably offer some moderate but steady returns as the insurance policies of the rats, and enormous returns as the most likely places the rats would run if things nosedive. Now I understand the USD4 million condos in Nairobi.

LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
"Die Hoffnung stirbt zuletzt."
sschueller 4y ago
The US tapped the German prime Minister Angela Merkel's phone. Not not much of an alliance there. If it serves US interest all bets are off and it's time for everyone to realize that.

dongobongo 4y ago

Little bit of circumstantial evidence: https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-resting-new-technology/ https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunit...

dongobongo 4y ago

More evidence: https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/us-blew-up-russian-gas-pipelines?utm_source=post-email-title&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/us-blew-up-russi...

Calvin02 4y ago
In English, evidence, conjecture, and pure speculation are very different things. This would qualify, at best, as speculation. :)