6 ms·

Why we have to wait until 2023 to call it "recession"? Because of elections in November? Why not wait until 2025 after presidential election?

CoffeeCollector 4y ago
lmao yes, that is precisely why
lkrubner 4y ago
NBER typically waits a year before declaring a recession. They want to make sure they have all the facts. Many economic statistics are revised several times, and don't settle to their final form till 6 months after they were announced (not even mentioning the statistics that get revised 20 years later). It wasn't till December of 2008 that they announced the recession, which they said had begun in December of 2007.
- saalweachter 4y ago
  It's also worth noting that the recession that started in Dec '07 was definitely a factor in the election of Nov '08 despite not being called til Dec '08. It's reasonable to think that the fact of a recession is of more electoral consequence than the declaration; I'm a little curious if the common definition or the NBER definition correlates with incumbent (dis) advantage better.
- throw93232 4y ago
  Well, that really is just technicality, is it? We could call it recession now, and later correct it, if data show something else. I am worried we will get another wave of censorship about "recession conspiracy".
  - dahfizz 4y ago
    > I am worried we will get another wave of censorship about "recession conspiracy". Yup, without a doubt. Anyone talking about a recession will be an anti-biden conspiracy theorist. Then, shortly after the election, they will admit there is a recession but that they are doing a really good job combating it.
    - mjburgess 4y ago
      Delusions of persecution are strong here. Who on earth would say that disagreeing with the WH on the technical definition of recession is a conspiracy theory?
      - roleplayer 4y ago
        The existence of covid was called a conspiracy theory at one point, the term is used so loosely that it has lost all meaning and just used as a sort of cognitive stop sign. You could say the widespread use of the term conspiracy theory to mean something other than literally a theory that there is a group conspiring about something is itself a conspiracy and it would be consistent with mainstream usage, blame the people who watered the term down to be meaningless
        mjburgess 4y ago
        I havent experienced it being meaningless. I do see this comment often, and I universally encounter it said by conspiracy theorists or their apologists. Ie., those people with unjustified conspiracy narratives born of delusions of paranoia. The 'theory' that china deliberately manufactured and released covid is a conspiracy theory. I have not seen COVID called one, nor even, the idea that a lab in china was researching it, nor that its release is accidental. There being a pandemic, that a lab is somewhere researching COVID, that a lab may have accidentally released COVID do not contain any conspiracies. The phrase is a very clear term of art in my view: a conspiracy theory is a story about how the world works which places implausible conspiracies at the heart of its causal structure; in the manner of movie plots; and presents a paranoid style of reasoning in which major events, and their distal effects, are the deliberate decisions of a small number of people. Conspiracy theories, and theorists, are by definition engaged in an epistemic vice; a pseudoscientific activity of explanation; a kind of intellectualised schizoprehnia.
      - mrcheesebreeze 4y ago
        many people, nowadays if you disagree with the current president his entire "side" will insult you. It was a conspiracy theory, according to liberals, to believe that the vaccine would be mandatory and that it would not stop the disease. Remember people saying that were called crazy not long ago. It was a conspiracy that russia would invade ukraine according to conservatives until it happened. Speculation gets you insulted until you are right. Now if you say there is a recession biden worshippers will assume this is some kind of personal attack.
  - ChrisLomont 4y ago
    There's historical evidence that calling something a recession, if it is not, tends to push it into a recession.
    - bluefirebrand 4y ago
      It seems unlikely that theres sufficient evidence to claim causality here. Honestly? If you say "we're in a recession" and then it turns out it is or becomes a recession, it sounds like you were right. Not that you caused it.
      - ChrisLomont 4y ago
        Here's but one of many papers https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227 https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227. Dig through google scholar using terms like "confidence" and "recession" to find many more.
    - ccvannorman 4y ago
      This seems like a great example of anti-data .. do you have any source at all to back this up?
      - ChrisLomont 4y ago
        Here's but one of many papers https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227 https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227. Dig through google scholar using terms like "confidence" and "recession" to find many more.
    - checkyoursudo 4y ago
      This contradicts my best evidence based on the widespread joke that "economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions." Big, if true.
      - ChrisLomont 4y ago
        Here's but one of many papers https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227 https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227. Dig through google scholar using terms like "confidence" and "recession" to find many more.
  - throwaway6734 4y ago
    Officially declaring a recession makes it more likely for a recession to occur
    - alasdair_ 4y ago
      Recessions are almost always declared months after they occur, not before.
JoBrad 4y ago
Because we’ll have a more accurate understanding of what’s happening right now, for the whole country.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

CoffeeCollector 4y ago

lmao yes, that is precisely why

lkrubner 4y ago

NBER typically waits a year before declaring a recession. They want to make sure they have all the facts. Many economic statistics are revised several times, and don't settle to their final form till 6 months after they were announced (not even mentioning the statistics that get revised 20 years later). It wasn't till December of 2008 that they announced the recession, which they said had begun in December of 2007.

saalweachter 4y ago
It's also worth noting that the recession that started in Dec '07 was definitely a factor in the election of Nov '08 despite not being called til Dec '08. It's reasonable to think that the fact of a recession is of more electoral consequence than the declaration; I'm a little curious if the common definition or the NBER definition correlates with incumbent (dis) advantage better.
throw93232 4y ago
Well, that really is just technicality, is it? We could call it recession now, and later correct it, if data show something else. I am worried we will get another wave of censorship about "recession conspiracy".
- dahfizz 4y ago
  > I am worried we will get another wave of censorship about "recession conspiracy". Yup, without a doubt. Anyone talking about a recession will be an anti-biden conspiracy theorist. Then, shortly after the election, they will admit there is a recession but that they are doing a really good job combating it.
  - mjburgess 4y ago
    Delusions of persecution are strong here. Who on earth would say that disagreeing with the WH on the technical definition of recession is a conspiracy theory?
    - roleplayer 4y ago
      The existence of covid was called a conspiracy theory at one point, the term is used so loosely that it has lost all meaning and just used as a sort of cognitive stop sign. You could say the widespread use of the term conspiracy theory to mean something other than literally a theory that there is a group conspiring about something is itself a conspiracy and it would be consistent with mainstream usage, blame the people who watered the term down to be meaningless
      - mjburgess 4y ago
        I havent experienced it being meaningless. I do see this comment often, and I universally encounter it said by conspiracy theorists or their apologists. Ie., those people with unjustified conspiracy narratives born of delusions of paranoia. The 'theory' that china deliberately manufactured and released covid is a conspiracy theory. I have not seen COVID called one, nor even, the idea that a lab in china was researching it, nor that its release is accidental. There being a pandemic, that a lab is somewhere researching COVID, that a lab may have accidentally released COVID do not contain any conspiracies. The phrase is a very clear term of art in my view: a conspiracy theory is a story about how the world works which places implausible conspiracies at the heart of its causal structure; in the manner of movie plots; and presents a paranoid style of reasoning in which major events, and their distal effects, are the deliberate decisions of a small number of people. Conspiracy theories, and theorists, are by definition engaged in an epistemic vice; a pseudoscientific activity of explanation; a kind of intellectualised schizoprehnia.
    - mrcheesebreeze 4y ago
      many people, nowadays if you disagree with the current president his entire "side" will insult you. It was a conspiracy theory, according to liberals, to believe that the vaccine would be mandatory and that it would not stop the disease. Remember people saying that were called crazy not long ago. It was a conspiracy that russia would invade ukraine according to conservatives until it happened. Speculation gets you insulted until you are right. Now if you say there is a recession biden worshippers will assume this is some kind of personal attack.
- ChrisLomont 4y ago
  There's historical evidence that calling something a recession, if it is not, tends to push it into a recession.
  - bluefirebrand 4y ago
    It seems unlikely that theres sufficient evidence to claim causality here. Honestly? If you say "we're in a recession" and then it turns out it is or becomes a recession, it sounds like you were right. Not that you caused it.
    - ChrisLomont 4y ago
      Here's but one of many papers https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227 https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227. Dig through google scholar using terms like "confidence" and "recession" to find many more.
  - ccvannorman 4y ago
    This seems like a great example of anti-data .. do you have any source at all to back this up?
    - ChrisLomont 4y ago
      Here's but one of many papers https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227 https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227. Dig through google scholar using terms like "confidence" and "recession" to find many more.
  - checkyoursudo 4y ago
    This contradicts my best evidence based on the widespread joke that "economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions." Big, if true.
    - ChrisLomont 4y ago
      Here's but one of many papers https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227 https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227. Dig through google scholar using terms like "confidence" and "recession" to find many more.
- throwaway6734 4y ago
  Officially declaring a recession makes it more likely for a recession to occur
  - alasdair_ 4y ago
    Recessions are almost always declared months after they occur, not before.

JoBrad 4y ago

Because we’ll have a more accurate understanding of what’s happening right now, for the whole country.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]