7 ms·

During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s, the Mujahideen had a phrase, "You have the watches, we have the time."

BitwiseFool 5y ago
In your assessment, who has the time in this scenario? Russia? Europe? Ukraine?
- squarefoot 5y ago
  Ukraine has the time, in the sense that each day that the Russian army is delayed there are more chances that someone in Russia will decide to get rid of Putin. This is roughly what happens to every dictator that doesn't know when to stop, and usually dictators are so much self confident that they soon lose any contact with reality. Putin has gone too far and now he can't withdraw because that would be his political death, and can't drag things for too long because of the above reason, therefore he hopes to bring Ukrainians to their knees as quick as possible, but that can't be achieved without hitting indiscriminately lots of civilians, therefore no matter how it ends, he's already fucked. Also, he presumably knows all skeletons in the closet kept by the oligarchs, so it's very likely that if an international arrest warrant is issued, he'll rather be executed in Russia than surrendered.
  - Bayart 5y ago
    That is wishful thinking. Despite the initial blunders, Russia is advancing in Ukraine at the same pace Germany was in Poland. And it's unlikely they'll get worse as time goes on (the Wehrmacht in its time used Poland to massively improve their operational readiness). Dictators in times of war, in countries subjected to isolation, tend to stick around. And even then, the absence of Putin doesn't mean the general trajectory of Russia would change. I really don't see much hope for Ukraine, and considering the size of the NATO fast response teams, I expect more countries to fold before Russia starts stalling. I'd say every country without its own autonomous nuclear arsenal is at risk. That's includes everyone under America's umbrella.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      Russia can and in a way has won 'stage 1', the quick advance. But now they have to keep it, supply their troops and maintain presence and that is a very expensive operation in a country that really doesn't want you. Extra hard when it's cold you have no food and you're running out of fuel. Vehicles are being abandoned and there is plenty of evidence for self sabotage.
      - toomuchtodo 5y ago
        Like watching a snake attempt to eat a porcupine.
        jacquesm 5y ago
        That's a fairly good analogy. The amount of hand held weaponry flowing into the Ukraine must beat some kind of record.
        toomuchtodo 5y ago
        It is my understanding that a neighboring country has also provided MiG jet fighter aircraft to the Ukrainian air force. Good show on their part.
        jacquesm 5y ago
        Contradicting stories about that, some say that deal fell through, which given the publicity they initially attached to it makes it seem as though that was conditional on something, which I have no idea about.
      - qiskit 5y ago
        > supply their troops Supply their troops right across their border? Where do you think ukraine is? The side that will have problems with supplies is the one that had their armories, oil refineries, storage facilities, etc destroyed. > maintain presence Something they've done for centuries? They don't have to maintain a presence. The ukrainian army will. Notice how there aren't any major battles? Ever wonder why Zelensky is asking the civilians to fight? Because most of the ukranian army is not fighting. > that is a very expensive operation in a country that really doesn't want you. Half the country is russian to begin with. More than half the country voted to align with russia. That's why the West staged a coup. > Extra hard when it's cold you have no food and you're running out of fuel. It's only going to get warmer and Russia is not going to run out of food nor fuel. You do realize russia is the largest fossil fuel producer right? > Vehicles are being abandoned and there is plenty of evidence for self sabotage. Then how come major ukrainian cities are under seige? Read what you wrote and ask yourself, is it really what's happening or is it what you wish was happening? I don't think the ghost of kiev is going to save ukraine. Unless a major power steps in to help ukraine, it'll be "liberated" in the next few weeks. And then ukranians will go on with their lives. No country is going to step in to fight russia.
  - greeneggs 5y ago
    This perspective seems to be incredibly optimistic. Oil-rich dictators can live a long time, even as they drive their countries to ruin. I don't know that there is much of a power base against him, and he still seems to have broad support from the populace (which might or might not matter). Take for example Saddam Hussein. His 1980-1988 failed invasion of Iran cost 100,000 to 200,000 Iraqi lives (plus wounded and 70,000 Iraqi POWs held by Iran). Then the 1990-1991 failed invasion of Kuwait cost another 20,000 to 50,000 Iraqi lives… And yet he might well have never lost control, short of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq.
- tarboreus 5y ago
  Russia has the watches. Ukraine has the time. Not sure if I agree in this circumstance, but traditionally insurgency is something of a waiting game.
  - BitwiseFool 5y ago
    I feel the same way. I wasn't sure if Russia had some long-game tactical advantage I was hitherto unaware of and wanted to ask.
  - throwawaylinux 5y ago
    I've barely followed what's going on in the conflict, but I think some regions of Eastern Ukraine are the insurgents with respect to the Ukraine government. So in their case perhaps they've had the time for the past years and finally Ukraine's watches are winding down there. Great proverb.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      Then maybe you should go bone up on what has happened in the last week or so before commenting? Things have moved quite a bit compared to the state that you describe, to put it very mildly.
      - throwawaylinux 5y ago
        No I know enough to know about the separatist regions, if not by propaganda then by actual action because western governments have begun to scrutinize business dealings with entities in those separatist regions, not just Russia. If everybody had to be actual experts in something before commenting on it here, there would be zero comments about any Russia/Ukraine story. Aside from that It's extremely difficult to get reliable information from any source I have found about the details of the situation. I've not seen anything that is contrary to what I said though. Maybe you can enlighten me.
        jacquesm 5y ago
- outside1234 5y ago
  Russia is going to run out of money at this rate. This is not a rich country.
  - thebeastie 5y ago
    They’re not, while Europe keeps buying their energy.
FuckButtons 5y ago
The mujahideen also had the mountains of Afghanistan. Anyone who is under the illusion that Ukraine can mount a similar insurgency to the afghans has not studied much history.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  There are also other factors at play, such as that there are a lot more funds available.
- outside1234 5y ago
  They have skyscrapers. I would be terrified as a Russian soldier to walk in Kyiv. Only a matter of time until you get sniped, cocktail'ed -- or worse.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Or drive there, the number of Javelins and RPGs in circulation handily outnumbers the number of tanks and armored vehicles. It would be like driving into a meatgrinder.
    - koonsolo 5y ago
      Or fly for that matter, with all the Stingers. I can't imagine flying some expensive attack helicopter, and at any time some Volodymyr can pop out behind a corner with a Stinger and a finger on the trigger.
  - FuckButtons 5y ago
    Skyscrapers can be flattened with enough artillery. The Hindu Kush cannot.
- bouvin 5y ago
  After WW2, Ukrainian partisans fought on until the late forties – without the foreign aid that be expected this time.
- alamortsubite 5y ago

BitwiseFool 5y ago

In your assessment, who has the time in this scenario? Russia? Europe? Ukraine?

squarefoot 5y ago
Ukraine has the time, in the sense that each day that the Russian army is delayed there are more chances that someone in Russia will decide to get rid of Putin. This is roughly what happens to every dictator that doesn't know when to stop, and usually dictators are so much self confident that they soon lose any contact with reality. Putin has gone too far and now he can't withdraw because that would be his political death, and can't drag things for too long because of the above reason, therefore he hopes to bring Ukrainians to their knees as quick as possible, but that can't be achieved without hitting indiscriminately lots of civilians, therefore no matter how it ends, he's already fucked. Also, he presumably knows all skeletons in the closet kept by the oligarchs, so it's very likely that if an international arrest warrant is issued, he'll rather be executed in Russia than surrendered.
- Bayart 5y ago
  That is wishful thinking. Despite the initial blunders, Russia is advancing in Ukraine at the same pace Germany was in Poland. And it's unlikely they'll get worse as time goes on (the Wehrmacht in its time used Poland to massively improve their operational readiness). Dictators in times of war, in countries subjected to isolation, tend to stick around. And even then, the absence of Putin doesn't mean the general trajectory of Russia would change. I really don't see much hope for Ukraine, and considering the size of the NATO fast response teams, I expect more countries to fold before Russia starts stalling. I'd say every country without its own autonomous nuclear arsenal is at risk. That's includes everyone under America's umbrella.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Russia can and in a way has won 'stage 1', the quick advance. But now they have to keep it, supply their troops and maintain presence and that is a very expensive operation in a country that really doesn't want you. Extra hard when it's cold you have no food and you're running out of fuel. Vehicles are being abandoned and there is plenty of evidence for self sabotage.
    - toomuchtodo 5y ago
      Like watching a snake attempt to eat a porcupine.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        That's a fairly good analogy. The amount of hand held weaponry flowing into the Ukraine must beat some kind of record.
        toomuchtodo 5y ago
        It is my understanding that a neighboring country has also provided MiG jet fighter aircraft to the Ukrainian air force. Good show on their part.
        jacquesm 5y ago
        Contradicting stories about that, some say that deal fell through, which given the publicity they initially attached to it makes it seem as though that was conditional on something, which I have no idea about.
    - qiskit 5y ago
      > supply their troops Supply their troops right across their border? Where do you think ukraine is? The side that will have problems with supplies is the one that had their armories, oil refineries, storage facilities, etc destroyed. > maintain presence Something they've done for centuries? They don't have to maintain a presence. The ukrainian army will. Notice how there aren't any major battles? Ever wonder why Zelensky is asking the civilians to fight? Because most of the ukranian army is not fighting. > that is a very expensive operation in a country that really doesn't want you. Half the country is russian to begin with. More than half the country voted to align with russia. That's why the West staged a coup. > Extra hard when it's cold you have no food and you're running out of fuel. It's only going to get warmer and Russia is not going to run out of food nor fuel. You do realize russia is the largest fossil fuel producer right? > Vehicles are being abandoned and there is plenty of evidence for self sabotage. Then how come major ukrainian cities are under seige? Read what you wrote and ask yourself, is it really what's happening or is it what you wish was happening? I don't think the ghost of kiev is going to save ukraine. Unless a major power steps in to help ukraine, it'll be "liberated" in the next few weeks. And then ukranians will go on with their lives. No country is going to step in to fight russia.
- greeneggs 5y ago
  This perspective seems to be incredibly optimistic. Oil-rich dictators can live a long time, even as they drive their countries to ruin. I don't know that there is much of a power base against him, and he still seems to have broad support from the populace (which might or might not matter). Take for example Saddam Hussein. His 1980-1988 failed invasion of Iran cost 100,000 to 200,000 Iraqi lives (plus wounded and 70,000 Iraqi POWs held by Iran). Then the 1990-1991 failed invasion of Kuwait cost another 20,000 to 50,000 Iraqi lives… And yet he might well have never lost control, short of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq.
tarboreus 5y ago
Russia has the watches. Ukraine has the time. Not sure if I agree in this circumstance, but traditionally insurgency is something of a waiting game.
- BitwiseFool 5y ago
  I feel the same way. I wasn't sure if Russia had some long-game tactical advantage I was hitherto unaware of and wanted to ask.
- throwawaylinux 5y ago
  I've barely followed what's going on in the conflict, but I think some regions of Eastern Ukraine are the insurgents with respect to the Ukraine government. So in their case perhaps they've had the time for the past years and finally Ukraine's watches are winding down there. Great proverb.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Then maybe you should go bone up on what has happened in the last week or so before commenting? Things have moved quite a bit compared to the state that you describe, to put it very mildly.
    - throwawaylinux 5y ago
      No I know enough to know about the separatist regions, if not by propaganda then by actual action because western governments have begun to scrutinize business dealings with entities in those separatist regions, not just Russia. If everybody had to be actual experts in something before commenting on it here, there would be zero comments about any Russia/Ukraine story. Aside from that It's extremely difficult to get reliable information from any source I have found about the details of the situation. I've not seen anything that is contrary to what I said though. Maybe you can enlighten me.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
outside1234 5y ago
Russia is going to run out of money at this rate. This is not a rich country.
- thebeastie 5y ago
  They’re not, while Europe keeps buying their energy.

FuckButtons 5y ago

The mujahideen also had the mountains of Afghanistan. Anyone who is under the illusion that Ukraine can mount a similar insurgency to the afghans has not studied much history.

jacquesm 5y ago
There are also other factors at play, such as that there are a lot more funds available.
outside1234 5y ago
They have skyscrapers. I would be terrified as a Russian soldier to walk in Kyiv. Only a matter of time until you get sniped, cocktail'ed -- or worse.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Or drive there, the number of Javelins and RPGs in circulation handily outnumbers the number of tanks and armored vehicles. It would be like driving into a meatgrinder.
  - koonsolo 5y ago
    Or fly for that matter, with all the Stingers. I can't imagine flying some expensive attack helicopter, and at any time some Volodymyr can pop out behind a corner with a Stinger and a finger on the trigger.
- FuckButtons 5y ago
  Skyscrapers can be flattened with enough artillery. The Hindu Kush cannot.
bouvin 5y ago
After WW2, Ukrainian partisans fought on until the late forties – without the foreign aid that be expected this time.
alamortsubite 5y ago