6 ms·

We definitely noticed the 2009-2010 swine flu pandemic, it just wasn't as deadly as COVID. Most pandemics in past memory have been minor in nature. We likely we

We definitely noticed the 2009-2010 swine flu pandemic, it just wasn't as deadly as COVID. Most pandemics in past memory have been minor in nature. We likely were aware of them, but didn't feel their impact because they caused mild illness or were limited in scope (eg, with SARS, ebola) and didn't directly impact people's lives. COVID does impact people's lives and the closest referent we have is the Spanish flu in 1918 which is far outside of anyone's historical memory. I'm not necessarily disputing your point about depression and anxiety, sure those may have increased as well, but COVID isn't anything like the other pandemics we've had in recent memory.

GDC7 5y ago
> Spanish flu in 1918 How many people you know died of COVID? The spanish flu had roughly 1 death every 2/3 families. Honestly you are comparing a firecracker to a nuclear weapon, and if you want to do that, then you have to produce the proofs.
- nobodyandproud 5y ago
  Weren’t families much larger in 1918? I know two people who died from Covid-19, and my circle of friends and acquaintances is fairly small. This, despite precautions and modern medicine.
- modriano 5y ago
  The Spanish flu of 1918 killed ~675k people in the US [0] and the US population was 105M [1], so the Spanish flu killed off a bit more than 0.6% of the entire US population, or about 1 in 150 people. Despite massive improvements in sanitation and ability to distance from others, COVID has still killed a bit more than 0.2% of the entire US population in the past 2 years. These pandemics are comparable. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n... [1] https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210920/covid-matches-1918_flu_pandemic_for_deaths#:~:text=In%201918%2C%20the%20U.S.%20population,million%20people%20in%20America%20today https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210920/covid-matches-1918_....
  - sjg007 5y ago
    Covid is going to end up killing a lot more people too.
- thisiszilff 5y ago
  > Honestly you are comparing a firecracker to a nuclear weapon, and if you want to do that, then you have to produce the proofs. Only if you've already decided COVID is a firecracker. Most people, especially early on, had no pandemic in their memories that occurred at the scale of COVID and were stuck figuring out exactly what their attitude should be towards it and how to interpret the government health interventions. The Spanish flu was a crucial referent for what might be in store. Even then, look at it from a the perspective of someone in the US: The estimated percentage of the US population that died to the 1918 flu is 0.64% (using the estimate of 675k from the 1918 flu) vs 0.23% for COVID so far (eg 770k US deaths). By those numbers the Spanish flu may have been worse, but for someone in the US it is natural to look at them and compare them. Medicine has improved considerably since 1918 and much of the anxiety around COVID revolves around health care collapsing and people no longer being able to receive care in which case the death rate would increase. We definitely noticed the Spanish flu and COVID is occurring on a similar scale, it isn't just anxiety.
  - GDC7 5y ago
    > The estimated percentage of the US population that died to the 1918 flu is 0.64% (using the estimate of 675k from the 1918 flu) vs 0.23% for COVID so far (eg 770k US deaths) 1) 675k in 1918? make it 1M, perhaps more. Also every COVID death is a COVID death, a flu death back then could be ascribed to anything. People say Nigeria and Brazil and India COVID figures aren't reliable, how is 1918 US stats reliable? 2) But the most important statistic is number of years trimmed off the life of every victim. 1918 flu trimmed as many years as the WW1, perhaps more as it attacked the same cohort. How many months is COVID trimming off the lives of people who perish? In 99% of instances between 12 and 48
    - thisiszilff 5y ago
      The most important thing here is that we're still in the middle of the COVID pandemic and don't know quite a bit about it whereas the Spanish flu has ended. We don't, for example, know about the longterm effects of COVID and whether it reduces life expectancy of individuals, especially those that were hospitalized. The COVID death rates do skew heavily towards those older, but the hospitalization rates are less skewed and if we are no longer able to provide healthcare for those who have severe cases, then the overall death rate will be less skewed. There have been multiple instances of healthcare facilities getting overwhelmed and much of public policy has been oriented around ensuring there is enough healthcare capacity to handle COVID cases + everyone else that needs to go to the hospital. The fact that there is a very real risk of not being able to receive emergency medical care because of this pandemic, especially during the surges prior to widespread vaccination, underscores that the pandemic response isn't just a product of anxiety.
- odonnellryan 5y ago
  In the US I know several people who have died of covid.
- gruturo 5y ago
  > Honestly you are comparing a firecracker to a nuclear weapon, and if you want to do that, then you have to produce the proofs. The relatively few deaths from Covid are a testament to the effectiveness of the preventive measures and vaccines, not an indication that it is a firecracker. Hospitals would have absolutely been overrun (remember the "flatten the curve" slogans?) and people, unable to get treatment, would have died at 2 to 5 times the current rate. We're at 5 million deaths worldwide and counting (you call that a firecracker??), it could have been a lot higher.
  - GDC7 5y ago
    > We're at 5 million deaths worldwide and counting (you call that a firecracker??), it could have been a lot higher. How many months were trimmed off each COVID victim lives? In 99% of the cases it's between 12 and 48 months 1918 flu attacked the youth, it trimmed between 48 and 68 YEARS off their lives, as I said: firecracker vs. nuclear weapon
    - GoodbyeMrChips 5y ago
      GDC7 should not be downvoted for pointing out that 1918 Spanish flu affected youth, whereas Covid-19 predominately affects the elderly. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Mortality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Mortality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covid-19#Mortality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covid-19#Mortality
    - sdoering 5y ago
      As far as I remember in Germany the average years lost were 13 years. I would love to know where you got your numbers. From all your statements and bold claims I am actually missing reliable sources. Fir example, where did you get the 99%? Or the 12 to 48 months. And btw. what is the world view if someone dying 4 years prematurely (on average) is something that one can state as OK?
      - GDC7 5y ago
        > As far as I remember in Germany the average years lost were 13 years. I would love to know where you got your numbers. That study claiming 13 years had a big asterisk: "those dying from COVID-19 may be an at-risk population whose remaining life expectancy is shorter than the average person’s remaining life expectancy. This methodological concern is likely to be valid, and consequently our estimate of the total YLL due to COVID-19 may be an overestimate"...DUH!!! > And btw. what is the world view if someone dying 4 years prematurely (on average) is something that one can state as OK? At this rate we are ALL going to lose 4 years of our lives with eternal lockdowns and travel restrictions and all this wheel which keeps spinning. It's time to do what Sweden did, now we can roll out a new mRNA vaccine in 100 days if needed be, we have the Merck and the Pfizer pill. It's time to go on with our lives , again , before we ALL lose 4 years, not just the immunocompromised and the overtly obese. Besides, those categories who are handicapped are able to live a life with dignity because there is an infrastructure providing for them, that infrastructure has come to a halt, so they are losing those 12-48 months of life anyway . Thing is, somebody who is 12-48 months away from the grave is susceptible to a ligth breeze, so if it's not COVID taking them it's the effect of lockdowns and the failure of the infrastructure.

GDC7 5y ago

> Spanish flu in 1918 How many people you know died of COVID? The spanish flu had roughly 1 death every 2/3 families. Honestly you are comparing a firecracker to a nuclear weapon, and if you want to do that, then you have to produce the proofs.

nobodyandproud 5y ago
Weren’t families much larger in 1918? I know two people who died from Covid-19, and my circle of friends and acquaintances is fairly small. This, despite precautions and modern medicine.
modriano 5y ago
The Spanish flu of 1918 killed ~675k people in the US [0] and the US population was 105M [1], so the Spanish flu killed off a bit more than 0.6% of the entire US population, or about 1 in 150 people. Despite massive improvements in sanitation and ability to distance from others, COVID has still killed a bit more than 0.2% of the entire US population in the past 2 years. These pandemics are comparable. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n... [1] https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210920/covid-matches-1918_flu_pandemic_for_deaths#:~:text=In%201918%2C%20the%20U.S.%20population,million%20people%20in%20America%20today https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210920/covid-matches-1918_....
- sjg007 5y ago
  Covid is going to end up killing a lot more people too.
thisiszilff 5y ago
> Honestly you are comparing a firecracker to a nuclear weapon, and if you want to do that, then you have to produce the proofs. Only if you've already decided COVID is a firecracker. Most people, especially early on, had no pandemic in their memories that occurred at the scale of COVID and were stuck figuring out exactly what their attitude should be towards it and how to interpret the government health interventions. The Spanish flu was a crucial referent for what might be in store. Even then, look at it from a the perspective of someone in the US: The estimated percentage of the US population that died to the 1918 flu is 0.64% (using the estimate of 675k from the 1918 flu) vs 0.23% for COVID so far (eg 770k US deaths). By those numbers the Spanish flu may have been worse, but for someone in the US it is natural to look at them and compare them. Medicine has improved considerably since 1918 and much of the anxiety around COVID revolves around health care collapsing and people no longer being able to receive care in which case the death rate would increase. We definitely noticed the Spanish flu and COVID is occurring on a similar scale, it isn't just anxiety.
- GDC7 5y ago
  > The estimated percentage of the US population that died to the 1918 flu is 0.64% (using the estimate of 675k from the 1918 flu) vs 0.23% for COVID so far (eg 770k US deaths) 1) 675k in 1918? make it 1M, perhaps more. Also every COVID death is a COVID death, a flu death back then could be ascribed to anything. People say Nigeria and Brazil and India COVID figures aren't reliable, how is 1918 US stats reliable? 2) But the most important statistic is number of years trimmed off the life of every victim. 1918 flu trimmed as many years as the WW1, perhaps more as it attacked the same cohort. How many months is COVID trimming off the lives of people who perish? In 99% of instances between 12 and 48
  - thisiszilff 5y ago
    The most important thing here is that we're still in the middle of the COVID pandemic and don't know quite a bit about it whereas the Spanish flu has ended. We don't, for example, know about the longterm effects of COVID and whether it reduces life expectancy of individuals, especially those that were hospitalized. The COVID death rates do skew heavily towards those older, but the hospitalization rates are less skewed and if we are no longer able to provide healthcare for those who have severe cases, then the overall death rate will be less skewed. There have been multiple instances of healthcare facilities getting overwhelmed and much of public policy has been oriented around ensuring there is enough healthcare capacity to handle COVID cases + everyone else that needs to go to the hospital. The fact that there is a very real risk of not being able to receive emergency medical care because of this pandemic, especially during the surges prior to widespread vaccination, underscores that the pandemic response isn't just a product of anxiety.
odonnellryan 5y ago
In the US I know several people who have died of covid.
gruturo 5y ago
> Honestly you are comparing a firecracker to a nuclear weapon, and if you want to do that, then you have to produce the proofs. The relatively few deaths from Covid are a testament to the effectiveness of the preventive measures and vaccines, not an indication that it is a firecracker. Hospitals would have absolutely been overrun (remember the "flatten the curve" slogans?) and people, unable to get treatment, would have died at 2 to 5 times the current rate. We're at 5 million deaths worldwide and counting (you call that a firecracker??), it could have been a lot higher.
- GDC7 5y ago
  > We're at 5 million deaths worldwide and counting (you call that a firecracker??), it could have been a lot higher. How many months were trimmed off each COVID victim lives? In 99% of the cases it's between 12 and 48 months 1918 flu attacked the youth, it trimmed between 48 and 68 YEARS off their lives, as I said: firecracker vs. nuclear weapon
  - GoodbyeMrChips 5y ago
    GDC7 should not be downvoted for pointing out that 1918 Spanish flu affected youth, whereas Covid-19 predominately affects the elderly. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Mortality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Mortality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covid-19#Mortality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covid-19#Mortality
  - sdoering 5y ago
    As far as I remember in Germany the average years lost were 13 years. I would love to know where you got your numbers. From all your statements and bold claims I am actually missing reliable sources. Fir example, where did you get the 99%? Or the 12 to 48 months. And btw. what is the world view if someone dying 4 years prematurely (on average) is something that one can state as OK?
    - GDC7 5y ago
      > As far as I remember in Germany the average years lost were 13 years. I would love to know where you got your numbers. That study claiming 13 years had a big asterisk: "those dying from COVID-19 may be an at-risk population whose remaining life expectancy is shorter than the average person’s remaining life expectancy. This methodological concern is likely to be valid, and consequently our estimate of the total YLL due to COVID-19 may be an overestimate"...DUH!!! > And btw. what is the world view if someone dying 4 years prematurely (on average) is something that one can state as OK? At this rate we are ALL going to lose 4 years of our lives with eternal lockdowns and travel restrictions and all this wheel which keeps spinning. It's time to do what Sweden did, now we can roll out a new mRNA vaccine in 100 days if needed be, we have the Merck and the Pfizer pill. It's time to go on with our lives , again , before we ALL lose 4 years, not just the immunocompromised and the overtly obese. Besides, those categories who are handicapped are able to live a life with dignity because there is an infrastructure providing for them, that infrastructure has come to a halt, so they are losing those 12-48 months of life anyway . Thing is, somebody who is 12-48 months away from the grave is susceptible to a ligth breeze, so if it's not COVID taking them it's the effect of lockdowns and the failure of the infrastructure.