6 ms·

What am I missing here? Why is spacex valuation 100bn if this is true? I would think it would be 1tn easily in this kind of capital abundant environment. Is the

by lquist 5y ago

What am I missing here? Why is spacex valuation 100bn if this is true? I would think it would be 1tn easily in this kind of capital abundant environment. Is the risk that high? Is the market size being overestimated?

oxplot 5y ago
I'm no financial guru, even enthusiast, but my impression is that your average investor is interested in very short term profit. If you listened to last Telsa's shareholder meeting, one of the top questions was whether Tesla was going to pay dividends! People expect a company that's ramping up faster than any other in the history, building largest factories left and right, to pay dividends to its share holders! I'm in awe how they didn't just laugh the question off and didn't take back the shares from those shareholders (only if they could).
- panick21_ 5y ago
  > but my impression is that your average investor is interested in very short term profit You can actually figure out how much of a stock is traded and if your assumption is true then there would have to be far more trading. > one of the top questions was whether Tesla was going to pay dividends! How do you know what answer the people who voted for the question wanted to hear?
  - oxplot 5y ago
    > How do you know what answer the people who voted for the question wanted to hear? Interesting point. My intuition tells me that most people who are looking to get paid are the ones asking the question.
    - panick21_ 5y ago
      I can tell you that the person who got a question in literally every year since like 10 years is a long term investor. See Tesla Daily Podcast. Long term investors are very well organized and upvote certain questions. However that question was not from him.
- GDC7 5y ago
  > People expect a company that's ramping up faster than any other in the history Tesla was founded in 2002, during the same timespan Facebook became ubiquitous in our lives, Google became the homepage of the world and Amazon became the go-to place to make purchases. Microsoft did even better between 1975-1995. The world was much larger and disconnected back then and yet they managed to became so ubiquitous to reach the monopoly status, such a dominance that the US government had to step in like they did with Standard Oil. I commute to work daily . 25 miles back and forth and I am lucky if I see one Tesla . After 20 years the company most successful and ubiquitous product is its stock
  - cecilpl2 5y ago
    > I commute 25 miles back and forth to work and I am lucky if I see one Tesla . Where on earth do you live? I can barely walk down the street without tripping over one. It's not a stretch to say I'd see several dozen on a short morning run.
    - godshatter 5y ago
      Not the original poster, but I'm guessing they live somewhere other than California or New York. The nearest Tesla supercharging station to myself is a two-hour drive away, for example. While I could use one to drive to and from work or to businesses in the area, I won't be using it to go almost anywhere else any time soon. At least, not without planning my routes around that availability. As a contrast, the small town I live in has six gas stations. I'm looking forward to the day that the infrastructure is ubiquitous enough that I can buy a fully electric vehicle, but that day isn't here yet.
  - oxplot 5y ago
    That’s not apple to apple comparison. Try other vehicle manufacturers and see where your numbers end up. Ramping up a multi thousand part product with hundreds of suppliers is a whole different ball game than scaling an online website.
  - panick21_ 5y ago
    Are you comparing software companies to a manufacturing company? They were making new technology that people basically thought was impossible. By 2012 they had only sold 1000 vehicles. That how hard it was. Since Model S however they have grown about as fast as any manufacturing based company in history and they have very clear potential to continue to do so for a few years more at the very least. Tesla basically invest huge into growing a chemical industry to make the batteries. That simply not something that just magically happens within a few years. > Microsoft did even better between 1975-1995. Because Microsoft was running on ALL computers designed from lots and lots of companies. Rather the computers were designed for it. > such a dominance that the US government had to step in like they did with Standard Oil. They didn't 'had to' they wanted to.
- lquist 5y ago
  Sure, but SpaceX trades on the private markets, not public. The minimum to get into SpaceX is $1m.
  - panick21_ 5y ago
    This is flat inaccurate. There people on YT who showed how they got involved for much less then 100k.
cryptonector 5y ago
Isn't SpaceX privately held?

by lquist 5y ago

oxplot 5y ago

I'm no financial guru, even enthusiast, but my impression is that your average investor is interested in very short term profit. If you listened to last Telsa's shareholder meeting, one of the top questions was whether Tesla was going to pay dividends! People expect a company that's ramping up faster than any other in the history, building largest factories left and right, to pay dividends to its share holders! I'm in awe how they didn't just laugh the question off and didn't take back the shares from those shareholders (only if they could).

panick21_ 5y ago
> but my impression is that your average investor is interested in very short term profit You can actually figure out how much of a stock is traded and if your assumption is true then there would have to be far more trading. > one of the top questions was whether Tesla was going to pay dividends! How do you know what answer the people who voted for the question wanted to hear?
- oxplot 5y ago
  > How do you know what answer the people who voted for the question wanted to hear? Interesting point. My intuition tells me that most people who are looking to get paid are the ones asking the question.
  - panick21_ 5y ago
    I can tell you that the person who got a question in literally every year since like 10 years is a long term investor. See Tesla Daily Podcast. Long term investors are very well organized and upvote certain questions. However that question was not from him.
GDC7 5y ago
> People expect a company that's ramping up faster than any other in the history Tesla was founded in 2002, during the same timespan Facebook became ubiquitous in our lives, Google became the homepage of the world and Amazon became the go-to place to make purchases. Microsoft did even better between 1975-1995. The world was much larger and disconnected back then and yet they managed to became so ubiquitous to reach the monopoly status, such a dominance that the US government had to step in like they did with Standard Oil. I commute to work daily . 25 miles back and forth and I am lucky if I see one Tesla . After 20 years the company most successful and ubiquitous product is its stock
- cecilpl2 5y ago
  > I commute 25 miles back and forth to work and I am lucky if I see one Tesla . Where on earth do you live? I can barely walk down the street without tripping over one. It's not a stretch to say I'd see several dozen on a short morning run.
  - godshatter 5y ago
    Not the original poster, but I'm guessing they live somewhere other than California or New York. The nearest Tesla supercharging station to myself is a two-hour drive away, for example. While I could use one to drive to and from work or to businesses in the area, I won't be using it to go almost anywhere else any time soon. At least, not without planning my routes around that availability. As a contrast, the small town I live in has six gas stations. I'm looking forward to the day that the infrastructure is ubiquitous enough that I can buy a fully electric vehicle, but that day isn't here yet.
- oxplot 5y ago
  That’s not apple to apple comparison. Try other vehicle manufacturers and see where your numbers end up. Ramping up a multi thousand part product with hundreds of suppliers is a whole different ball game than scaling an online website.
- panick21_ 5y ago
  Are you comparing software companies to a manufacturing company? They were making new technology that people basically thought was impossible. By 2012 they had only sold 1000 vehicles. That how hard it was. Since Model S however they have grown about as fast as any manufacturing based company in history and they have very clear potential to continue to do so for a few years more at the very least. Tesla basically invest huge into growing a chemical industry to make the batteries. That simply not something that just magically happens within a few years. > Microsoft did even better between 1975-1995. Because Microsoft was running on ALL computers designed from lots and lots of companies. Rather the computers were designed for it. > such a dominance that the US government had to step in like they did with Standard Oil. They didn't 'had to' they wanted to.
lquist 5y ago
Sure, but SpaceX trades on the private markets, not public. The minimum to get into SpaceX is $1m.
- panick21_ 5y ago
  This is flat inaccurate. There people on YT who showed how they got involved for much less then 100k.

cryptonector 5y ago

Isn't SpaceX privately held?