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I like to imagine a future where space is unregulated, and some alternative LEO satellite Internet company begins to shoot down SpaceX's satellites in order to

I like to imagine a future where space is unregulated, and some alternative LEO satellite Internet company begins to shoot down SpaceX's satellites in order to make room for their own. That in turn inspires SpaceX to deploy their own defensive drones, and technology escalates. I'm not really sure where this would all go but it would make for a great fiction.

Retric 5y ago
Starlink satellites are already using ion thrusters simply to maintain orbit. Some level of active evasion seems like a viable evolution of that rather cyberpunk idea.
MichaelGroves 5y ago
Assuming such a lawless state of affairs, having a large constellation of satellites in LEO already could be used to prevent competition from reaching orbit to challenge you. I am not sure many people have noticed, but in launching thousands of Starlink satellites, SpaceX has demonstrated their ability to implement the SDI/Star Wars proposal Brilliant Pebbles, which called for a thousand or more kinetic interceptors hanging out in LEO, waiting for enemy rocket launches to crash into. At the time, Brilliant Pebbles was an absurd proposal because it called for thousands of satellites, but SpaceX has already demonstrated that ability. They can already launch 60 satellites per launch, and apparently have plans to increase that several times over. (It has occurred to me that Starlink might secretly be a Brilliant Pebbles installation already, waiting to be revealed as such if a major war were to break out. However I believe the thrusters on extant Starlink satellites are too weak for this. And they don't have the sensor suites for it either, at least officially.)
- skissane 5y ago
  SpaceX's latest FCC filing for Gen2 Starlink states that the new Gen2 satellites have the capacity to “accommodate additional payloads in the future” [0]. It is very plausible that the US government (Space Force, NRO, NOAA, etc) might sign up to provide some of those additional payloads. Although surveillance technology is much more likely than active weapons systems. I think SpaceX will likely resist turning Starlink into a weapon, it could be bad for their corporate image and might cause political difficulty with Starlink's approval in some countries. Surveillance technologies can always be covered up as commercial imaging, environmental/scientific imaging, military communication systems, etc. [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/spacex-starlink-satellite-internet-new-capabilities-starship-launch.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/spacex-starlink-satellite-in...
  - techdragon 5y ago
    Remember the Kzinti lesson. Anything with sufficient velocity is a weapon. Thousands of Starlink satellites is functionally equivalent to a mothballed Brilliant Pebbles fleet. Now to be fair their response time will not be ideal due to the thrusters not being optimised for rapid orbit changes. But it’s definitely a software update away from being a poor mans Brilliant Pebbles, more than capable enough to threaten anyone staying in LEO (they probably couldn’t respond fast enough to nail down a direct ascent rocket aimed at LEO or something flying right through LEO altitude on its way to say the moon.)
teh_infallible 5y ago
It’s interesting you imagine this as fiction. I have always thought it was inevitable. It would only take one innovation in space propulsion, and I could easily see fighting over space real estate leading to the destruction of satellites. Starlink seems particularly vulnerable, with the satellites lined up like dominoes.
takeda 5y ago
I prefer imagine future where the local loop was unbundled. Rendering starlink unnecessary and giving great speed and great ISP choice. Yes, starlink gives an additional choice, and that's great, but this approach is even harder to enter than laying down new fiber. Actual solution is to require last mile to be leased to any competitor. This was the reason why there was so much choice with DSL in early 2000 (Title II which applied to land lines had this requirement).
- elzbardico 5y ago
  Starlink’s idea is to provide service where is not economical to run cable or fiber. Rural areas mostly, underdeveloped countries, the seas, etc…
  - takeda 5y ago
    Ok, that's a fair point, although the monopoly issue is still there.
PoignardAzur 5y ago
That could probably be the plot of a cyberpunk RPG campaign. "My client, who has to remain anonymous for obvious reasons, wants you to break into this facility and fire the space-laser at the targets stored in this drive." "To deflect attention, you are to pose as cyberterrorists for the duration of the mission."
giomasce 5y ago
My somehow similar space predominance fiction would about one smaller country, unable to directly make use of space, but unwilling to leave it to other nations, intentionally causing the Kessler cascade by sending and detonating a few bombs in space.

Retric 5y ago

Starlink satellites are already using ion thrusters simply to maintain orbit. Some level of active evasion seems like a viable evolution of that rather cyberpunk idea.

MichaelGroves 5y ago

Assuming such a lawless state of affairs, having a large constellation of satellites in LEO already could be used to prevent competition from reaching orbit to challenge you. I am not sure many people have noticed, but in launching thousands of Starlink satellites, SpaceX has demonstrated their ability to implement the SDI/Star Wars proposal Brilliant Pebbles, which called for a thousand or more kinetic interceptors hanging out in LEO, waiting for enemy rocket launches to crash into. At the time, Brilliant Pebbles was an absurd proposal because it called for thousands of satellites, but SpaceX has already demonstrated that ability. They can already launch 60 satellites per launch, and apparently have plans to increase that several times over. (It has occurred to me that Starlink might secretly be a Brilliant Pebbles installation already, waiting to be revealed as such if a major war were to break out. However I believe the thrusters on extant Starlink satellites are too weak for this. And they don't have the sensor suites for it either, at least officially.)

skissane 5y ago
SpaceX's latest FCC filing for Gen2 Starlink states that the new Gen2 satellites have the capacity to “accommodate additional payloads in the future” [0]. It is very plausible that the US government (Space Force, NRO, NOAA, etc) might sign up to provide some of those additional payloads. Although surveillance technology is much more likely than active weapons systems. I think SpaceX will likely resist turning Starlink into a weapon, it could be bad for their corporate image and might cause political difficulty with Starlink's approval in some countries. Surveillance technologies can always be covered up as commercial imaging, environmental/scientific imaging, military communication systems, etc. [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/spacex-starlink-satellite-internet-new-capabilities-starship-launch.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/spacex-starlink-satellite-in...
- techdragon 5y ago
  Remember the Kzinti lesson. Anything with sufficient velocity is a weapon. Thousands of Starlink satellites is functionally equivalent to a mothballed Brilliant Pebbles fleet. Now to be fair their response time will not be ideal due to the thrusters not being optimised for rapid orbit changes. But it’s definitely a software update away from being a poor mans Brilliant Pebbles, more than capable enough to threaten anyone staying in LEO (they probably couldn’t respond fast enough to nail down a direct ascent rocket aimed at LEO or something flying right through LEO altitude on its way to say the moon.)

teh_infallible 5y ago

It’s interesting you imagine this as fiction. I have always thought it was inevitable. It would only take one innovation in space propulsion, and I could easily see fighting over space real estate leading to the destruction of satellites. Starlink seems particularly vulnerable, with the satellites lined up like dominoes.

takeda 5y ago

I prefer imagine future where the local loop was unbundled. Rendering starlink unnecessary and giving great speed and great ISP choice. Yes, starlink gives an additional choice, and that's great, but this approach is even harder to enter than laying down new fiber. Actual solution is to require last mile to be leased to any competitor. This was the reason why there was so much choice with DSL in early 2000 (Title II which applied to land lines had this requirement).

elzbardico 5y ago
Starlink’s idea is to provide service where is not economical to run cable or fiber. Rural areas mostly, underdeveloped countries, the seas, etc…
- takeda 5y ago
  Ok, that's a fair point, although the monopoly issue is still there.

PoignardAzur 5y ago

That could probably be the plot of a cyberpunk RPG campaign. "My client, who has to remain anonymous for obvious reasons, wants you to break into this facility and fire the space-laser at the targets stored in this drive." "To deflect attention, you are to pose as cyberterrorists for the duration of the mission."

giomasce 5y ago

My somehow similar space predominance fiction would about one smaller country, unable to directly make use of space, but unwilling to leave it to other nations, intentionally causing the Kessler cascade by sending and detonating a few bombs in space.