6 ms·

The Census was conducted for 2020 - how many have fled in light of the egregious lockdowns?

by weimerica 5y ago

he_is_legend 5y ago
Probably just a handful of internet cranks. How many would you estimate?
- weimerica 5y ago
  Based on the influx of license plates in my once idyllic community, far too many.
  - throwaway9980 5y ago
    I've noticed a lot of NY plates where I live too. Since most people who live in NYC don't own cars, it seems like these must be people who are being displaced. I know quite a few New Yorkers who have moved upstate or out to Long Island semi-permanently.
    - ghaff 5y ago
      If you look at NYC as a whole (i.e. all 5 boroughs), 45% own cars, so a minority but still a lot of cars. ADDED: Manhattan is about half that percentage but, again, still a lot of cars and people.
      - ahoy 5y ago
        Specifically that's 45% of all households, not 45% of residents. Those rates are super low the closer you are to manhattan, and much higher as you reach the outer parts of the outer boroughs [https://edc.nyc/article/new-yorkers-and-their-cars https://edc.nyc/article/new-yorkers-and-their-cars] And for context, the average US household owns about 1.9 cars. Not an apples-to-apples comparison, but its easy to see that NYC car ownership is MUCH lower than the nation on average. [https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/highlights_of_the_2001_national_household_travel_survey/section_01 https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/highlights_of_the_2...]
        ghaff 5y ago
        You're right. I misread the data.
    - eugenekolo 5y ago
      Anecdotally, many NYCers own cars as family units, especially common in the non-Manhattan suburbs. It's just not typically a 1:1 adult/car pairing like the suburbs are.
      - eugenekolo 5y ago
        Typo'd "non-Manhattan suburbs" -> "boroughs"
  - mattzito 5y ago
    According to postal service data, it was an extra 1.7% compared to 2019: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/19/upshot/how-the-pandemic-did-and-didnt-change-moves.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/19/upshot/how-th... Which is not small, but it bears out my anecdotal impression as an NYC resident- most of the people leaving are people who would have left in the next few years anyway, the pandemic just moved up their timeframe. And no one moved to avoid the “egregious lockdowns”, it’s just that working from home is a lot harder in an NYC apartment compared to a house.
    - ghaff 5y ago
      While I'm aware of specific exceptions, I expect that's the norm. People who had moving out of the city on their radar screens deciding that the past year was as good a time as any to accelerate the process. The question will be whether the usual cycle (of about the past 20 years) of an equal or larger cohort of young people move in to replace them.
- notsureaboutpg 5y ago
  As if people didn't lose their jobs during the pandemic, unemployment didn't skyrocket, and people didn't have to pick up new remote jobs which pay less and force you to live outside NYC... Get in reality
- nemo44x 5y ago
  The vacancy rate in Manhattan is around 11% today compared to the more typical 1.5%-2%. Im sure it will come back over time.
  - iso1210 5y ago
    9-10% of the 8.8 million would be 800-900k, taking population back to about 2010 levels.
    - nemo44x 5y ago
      Not sure if it’s that many but who knows. Below 34th St is around 17%. Rents are about 20% cheaper than before the pandemic. Here’s an article detailing this: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/manhattans-apartment-vacancy-rate-is-stubbornly-high-11621519206 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/manhat...
      - mattzito 5y ago
        That’s from back in May - things have changed quite a bit since then: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/06/10/realestate/new-york-rents.amp.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/06/10/real... In June they were already back to only 11% down, and it’s been accelerating since then. I doubt it’ll stabilize at pre-pandemic levels for a while, but it’s nowhere near where it was even 6 months ago
  - supernovae 5y ago
    Curious how much of that rate is because of AirBnB's and VRBOs closing out with no travelers and these units hitting the market vs people moving away...
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
JasonFruit 5y ago
Just so you know, you're dead, and it looks like this comment is what did it. Many of your comments are reasonably substantive, so I thought you should know.

The Census was conducted for 2020 - how many have fled in light of the egregious lockdowns?

he_is_legend 5y ago

Probably just a handful of internet cranks. How many would you estimate?

weimerica 5y ago
Based on the influx of license plates in my once idyllic community, far too many.
- throwaway9980 5y ago
  I've noticed a lot of NY plates where I live too. Since most people who live in NYC don't own cars, it seems like these must be people who are being displaced. I know quite a few New Yorkers who have moved upstate or out to Long Island semi-permanently.
  - ghaff 5y ago
    If you look at NYC as a whole (i.e. all 5 boroughs), 45% own cars, so a minority but still a lot of cars. ADDED: Manhattan is about half that percentage but, again, still a lot of cars and people.
    - ahoy 5y ago
      Specifically that's 45% of all households, not 45% of residents. Those rates are super low the closer you are to manhattan, and much higher as you reach the outer parts of the outer boroughs [https://edc.nyc/article/new-yorkers-and-their-cars https://edc.nyc/article/new-yorkers-and-their-cars] And for context, the average US household owns about 1.9 cars. Not an apples-to-apples comparison, but its easy to see that NYC car ownership is MUCH lower than the nation on average. [https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/highlights_of_the_2001_national_household_travel_survey/section_01 https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/highlights_of_the_2...]
      - ghaff 5y ago
        You're right. I misread the data.
  - eugenekolo 5y ago
    Anecdotally, many NYCers own cars as family units, especially common in the non-Manhattan suburbs. It's just not typically a 1:1 adult/car pairing like the suburbs are.
    - eugenekolo 5y ago
      Typo'd "non-Manhattan suburbs" -> "boroughs"
- mattzito 5y ago
  According to postal service data, it was an extra 1.7% compared to 2019: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/19/upshot/how-the-pandemic-did-and-didnt-change-moves.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/19/upshot/how-th... Which is not small, but it bears out my anecdotal impression as an NYC resident- most of the people leaving are people who would have left in the next few years anyway, the pandemic just moved up their timeframe. And no one moved to avoid the “egregious lockdowns”, it’s just that working from home is a lot harder in an NYC apartment compared to a house.
  - ghaff 5y ago
    While I'm aware of specific exceptions, I expect that's the norm. People who had moving out of the city on their radar screens deciding that the past year was as good a time as any to accelerate the process. The question will be whether the usual cycle (of about the past 20 years) of an equal or larger cohort of young people move in to replace them.
notsureaboutpg 5y ago
As if people didn't lose their jobs during the pandemic, unemployment didn't skyrocket, and people didn't have to pick up new remote jobs which pay less and force you to live outside NYC... Get in reality
nemo44x 5y ago
The vacancy rate in Manhattan is around 11% today compared to the more typical 1.5%-2%. Im sure it will come back over time.
- iso1210 5y ago
  9-10% of the 8.8 million would be 800-900k, taking population back to about 2010 levels.
  - nemo44x 5y ago
    Not sure if it’s that many but who knows. Below 34th St is around 17%. Rents are about 20% cheaper than before the pandemic. Here’s an article detailing this: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/manhattans-apartment-vacancy-rate-is-stubbornly-high-11621519206 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/manhat...
    - mattzito 5y ago
      That’s from back in May - things have changed quite a bit since then: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/06/10/realestate/new-york-rents.amp.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/06/10/real... In June they were already back to only 11% down, and it’s been accelerating since then. I doubt it’ll stabilize at pre-pandemic levels for a while, but it’s nowhere near where it was even 6 months ago
- supernovae 5y ago
  Curious how much of that rate is because of AirBnB's and VRBOs closing out with no travelers and these units hitting the market vs people moving away...

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

JasonFruit 5y ago

Just so you know, you're dead, and it looks like this comment is what did it. Many of your comments are reasonably substantive, so I thought you should know.