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China is constrained by its reliance on western markets. Full stop. It would hurt to pull the plug, but if they cross a line it will happen and they know it.

doggodaddo78 5y ago
The US is completely dependent on China for manufacturing. China is completely dependent on the US for funding development. It would be bad news for either frenemy to start anything major.
- stephen_g 5y ago
  Their posture is potentially lessening that dependency somewhat though - a company I work with, for example, now tries to find suppliers in Malaysia, Thailand, etc. for metalwork, PCB manufacture, assembly and things like that, which all would have just gone straight to China five years ago. This is a pretty small manufacturer with a fairly niche product, but I imagine others are thinking the same way.
- deleted 5y ago
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ben_w 5y ago
Now it is. But their population alone is larger than all the western markets combined, so it probably won’t remain so indefinitely.
lkramer 5y ago
Before Hong Kong I would probably have agreed with you, but You're assuming a purely rational reasoning. For China, and Xi in particular, there is a big element of national and personal pride at stake. It's for the same reason they have risked strangling Hong Kong in order to bring it more in line with the rest of China. Xi (more so than his predecessors) is quite happy to take a short term loss for (what he sees) as a long term gain. In addition, he would love to be remembered in history as the man he reunified China.
- michaelt 5y ago
  Furthermore, Hong Kong and Crimea show that western powers aren't spoiling for a fight - especially if you can present them with a fait accompli.
- maybelsyrup 5y ago
  Agreed. This is what an obsessive focus on "facts and logic" at the expense of a similar focus on emotion, instinct, and subjectivity gets you. People have values that often contradict rationality, and in too many cases they're ready to kill and die for them.
- GREYWATER 5y ago
  lkramer says: "Xi (more so than his predecessors) is quite happy to take a short term loss for (what he sees) as a long term gain. In addition, he would love to be remembered in history as the man he reunified China." And Xi is mortal. Once his generation die off (they are old), China may lose it's lust for Taiwan. BTW Covid most likely would have killed many of CCP's elders unless they had a vaccine or a preventative drug before Covid was released. How much of the CCP ruling bureaucracy died off during the Covid pandemic? If none, it would support the argument that Covid was an intentional release. Has anyone surveyed which CCP members did/did not survive Covid?
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ajsnigrutin 5y ago
But the western markets rely on china. Basically, if we "built the wall", they'd still have all the stuff, and we'd have increasingly more worthless numbers in our bank accounts. Relying on one country for most of our production needs is stupid.

doggodaddo78 5y ago

The US is completely dependent on China for manufacturing. China is completely dependent on the US for funding development. It would be bad news for either frenemy to start anything major.

stephen_g 5y ago
Their posture is potentially lessening that dependency somewhat though - a company I work with, for example, now tries to find suppliers in Malaysia, Thailand, etc. for metalwork, PCB manufacture, assembly and things like that, which all would have just gone straight to China five years ago. This is a pretty small manufacturer with a fairly niche product, but I imagine others are thinking the same way.
deleted 5y ago
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ben_w 5y ago

Now it is. But their population alone is larger than all the western markets combined, so it probably won’t remain so indefinitely.

lkramer 5y ago

Before Hong Kong I would probably have agreed with you, but You're assuming a purely rational reasoning. For China, and Xi in particular, there is a big element of national and personal pride at stake. It's for the same reason they have risked strangling Hong Kong in order to bring it more in line with the rest of China. Xi (more so than his predecessors) is quite happy to take a short term loss for (what he sees) as a long term gain. In addition, he would love to be remembered in history as the man he reunified China.

michaelt 5y ago
Furthermore, Hong Kong and Crimea show that western powers aren't spoiling for a fight - especially if you can present them with a fait accompli.
maybelsyrup 5y ago
Agreed. This is what an obsessive focus on "facts and logic" at the expense of a similar focus on emotion, instinct, and subjectivity gets you. People have values that often contradict rationality, and in too many cases they're ready to kill and die for them.
GREYWATER 5y ago
lkramer says: "Xi (more so than his predecessors) is quite happy to take a short term loss for (what he sees) as a long term gain. In addition, he would love to be remembered in history as the man he reunified China." And Xi is mortal. Once his generation die off (they are old), China may lose it's lust for Taiwan. BTW Covid most likely would have killed many of CCP's elders unless they had a vaccine or a preventative drug before Covid was released. How much of the CCP ruling bureaucracy died off during the Covid pandemic? If none, it would support the argument that Covid was an intentional release. Has anyone surveyed which CCP members did/did not survive Covid?

deleted 5y ago

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ajsnigrutin 5y ago

But the western markets rely on china. Basically, if we "built the wall", they'd still have all the stuff, and we'd have increasingly more worthless numbers in our bank accounts. Relying on one country for most of our production needs is stupid.