7 ms·

for those downvoting you: Home Values +8% Money Supply +24% Stock Market +23% Oil +80% Corn +69% Steel +145% Wheat +25% Coffee +34% Cotton +35% Copper

for those downvoting you: Home Values +8% Money Supply +24% Stock Market +23% Oil +80% Corn +69% Steel +145% Wheat +25% Coffee +34% Cotton +35% Copper +50% Lumber +126% Soybeans +71% this is over the past year.

gruez 5y ago
Who should I believe, a government agency conducting a methodical survey of the country's economy, or some guy with a list of numbers that's possibly cherry picked?
- noofen 5y ago
  Yes, of course, because government agencies have your best interests in mind.
  - gruez 5y ago
    As opposed to random hn commenters who possibly have an agenda?
    - noofen 5y ago
      Random HN commenters might have an agenda (what would it be?). Government agencies definitely have an agenda.
      - gruez 5y ago
        >Random HN commenters might have an agenda They're also anonymous, so you should assume the worst. This is especially true when the supporting evidence is suspect (ie. a bunch of arbitrary picked numbers). On the other hand the BLS's methodology is documented (https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/ https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/), so I'm willing to give them a pass even though their incentives might be skewed. >(what would it be?) their beliefs? "agenda" here doesn't have to be something nefarious. an anti-vaxxer's agenda is anti-vaccine, but that doesn't mean they're scheming to get everyone infected.
      - edoceo 5y ago
        everybody has agenda. its why its a lame point in a discussion. I think its called "ad hominem" https://bookofbadarguments.com/ https://bookofbadarguments.com/
- undefined1 5y ago
  up to you. you can look at the real world prices yourself, or ignore that in favor of the entity that has incentive to downplay inflation.
  - gruez 5y ago
    But I don't because it literally takes an entire government agency to do it right. The incentives might be misaligned, but the BLS is a large enough entity that if there really were problems with their methodology, it would be publicized. Short of that, I'm more inclined to believe the BLS over a random commenter.
    - jjav 5y ago
      > But I don't because it literally takes an entire government agency to do it right. It doesn't really. If you track your expenses consistently over the years (gnucash et.al.) you can trivially plot the increase in cost of living and the acceleration of that increase last handful of years.
      - gruez 5y ago
        That's fraught will all sorts of biases. What if your shopping habits changed? eg. you started becoming more health-conscious and started buying healthier (and more expensive) foods. The BLS accounts for all of that by measuring the price of a fixed basket of goods, which mitigates those effects. The same can't be said of your budgeting spreadsheet. Or maybe your area is undergoing gentrification and the discount supermarket got replaced with a whole foods. Your grocery spending might have went up 50%, but that doesn't mean it's a meaningful representation of what's happening across the country.
techrat 5y ago
When you throw numbers out like this, you best provide your source in the comment.
athinggoingon 5y ago
These numbers are cherry-picked. CRB-index is down 60% since its all time high: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb
programd 5y ago
For those commenters who are skeptical of the numbers, sources can be found here: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities The numbers below are one year commodity price gains, as of today rounded to the nearest tick (view the individual graphs, 1 year timeframe as % gain): Crude Oil +25% Corn +70% Steel +50% Wheat +25% Coffee +35% Cotton +20% Copper +60% Lumber +200% Soybeans +70%

gruez 5y ago

Who should I believe, a government agency conducting a methodical survey of the country's economy, or some guy with a list of numbers that's possibly cherry picked?

noofen 5y ago
Yes, of course, because government agencies have your best interests in mind.
- gruez 5y ago
  As opposed to random hn commenters who possibly have an agenda?
  - noofen 5y ago
    Random HN commenters might have an agenda (what would it be?). Government agencies definitely have an agenda.
    - gruez 5y ago
      >Random HN commenters might have an agenda They're also anonymous, so you should assume the worst. This is especially true when the supporting evidence is suspect (ie. a bunch of arbitrary picked numbers). On the other hand the BLS's methodology is documented (https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/ https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/), so I'm willing to give them a pass even though their incentives might be skewed. >(what would it be?) their beliefs? "agenda" here doesn't have to be something nefarious. an anti-vaxxer's agenda is anti-vaccine, but that doesn't mean they're scheming to get everyone infected.
    - edoceo 5y ago
      everybody has agenda. its why its a lame point in a discussion. I think its called "ad hominem" https://bookofbadarguments.com/ https://bookofbadarguments.com/
undefined1 5y ago
up to you. you can look at the real world prices yourself, or ignore that in favor of the entity that has incentive to downplay inflation.
- gruez 5y ago
  But I don't because it literally takes an entire government agency to do it right. The incentives might be misaligned, but the BLS is a large enough entity that if there really were problems with their methodology, it would be publicized. Short of that, I'm more inclined to believe the BLS over a random commenter.
  - jjav 5y ago
    > But I don't because it literally takes an entire government agency to do it right. It doesn't really. If you track your expenses consistently over the years (gnucash et.al.) you can trivially plot the increase in cost of living and the acceleration of that increase last handful of years.
    - gruez 5y ago
      That's fraught will all sorts of biases. What if your shopping habits changed? eg. you started becoming more health-conscious and started buying healthier (and more expensive) foods. The BLS accounts for all of that by measuring the price of a fixed basket of goods, which mitigates those effects. The same can't be said of your budgeting spreadsheet. Or maybe your area is undergoing gentrification and the discount supermarket got replaced with a whole foods. Your grocery spending might have went up 50%, but that doesn't mean it's a meaningful representation of what's happening across the country.

techrat 5y ago

When you throw numbers out like this, you best provide your source in the comment.

athinggoingon 5y ago

These numbers are cherry-picked. CRB-index is down 60% since its all time high: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb

programd 5y ago

For those commenters who are skeptical of the numbers, sources can be found here: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities The numbers below are one year commodity price gains, as of today rounded to the nearest tick (view the individual graphs, 1 year timeframe as % gain): Crude Oil +25% Corn +70% Steel +50% Wheat +25% Coffee +35% Cotton +20% Copper +60% Lumber +200% Soybeans +70%