No it isn't, in this case. I think Taleb has the best summary of this, for all his flaws: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM https://www.youtube.com/w

No it isn't, in this case. I think Taleb has the best summary of this, for all his flaws: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM In short, risk due to coconuts vs sharks is a valid comparison because we have good priors about growth rates, and they are similar. Coconuts vs covid is a terrible, terrible comparison because again we have good priors on growth but they are mind-bogglingly different functions of time.