8 ms·

San Francisco faces fiscal chaos

dmode 6y ago
Here’s the thing - I have been hearing doom and gloom about SF for 20 years. It will do fine
- ipnon 6y ago
  Bust is an overloaded term. The proposition here is that San Francisco is entering a multi year recession.
- hiram112 6y ago
  The problem has always been the pension obligations, specifically the medical costs. The math cannot be disputed. The reason why it really is different this time is because the Boomers will reach end of life, whether they like it or not, and medical costs rise exponentially in the last few years. States and localities who were in decent shape until now will be able to weather this storm by raising taxes (even more) on the younger generations. In California, there isn't anymore left to squeeze due to Prop 13.
  - dmode 6y ago
    I mean California had a $27bn deficit 10 years back, but ended up with a $15bn rainy day fund. Even back then, I heard the exact doom and gloom. I will wait and see how this plays out.
diogenescynic 6y ago
I think a more accurate description would be that San Francisco chooses chaos. I've never lived anywhere more unreasonably governed. It's like the government is actively sabotaging quality of life and squandering its budget. One example--the city spent $15.5m to tear down a McDonalds in the Haight and turn it into a homeless tent camp.
- drfuchs 6y ago
  Hmmm. There was a lot of local support for the city to get rid of that very-problematic McDonalds, as the police were being called there on an average of once per day over drug dealing, shootings, etc. And the lot is slated to be developed into high-density housing, which is typically a popular notion in the HN crowd. https://sf.curbed.com/2018/4/2/17188892/haight-steet-mcdonalds-closes https://sf.curbed.com/2018/4/2/17188892/haight-steet-mcdonal...
  - diogenescynic 6y ago
    Sure, but a homeless tent camp is a far cry from high-density housing. How long do the locals have to deal with a tent camp and all the associated problems? If you don't understand why spending $15.5m to actively make the lives worse of the locals and not really solve the problem--then I think you're missing why SF has budget problems. >For some nearby residents, the decision was met with dismay and frustration and a feeling of futility after they had spent weeks pleading with Preston’s office to find an alternative, like parking lots owned by the school district or City College and even Recreation and Park Department property. >“There are all of these large parking lots not being used that would be so much better than plopping this down in the middle of a residential area — an area we’ve struggled for decades to get control of on this end of Haight Street,” said Ted Loewenberg, president of the Haight-Ashbury Improvement Association. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/SF-to-open-sanctioned-tent-camp-on-old-15273859.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/SF-to-open-sanct...
    - staticautomatic 6y ago
      For as long as it takes. We should turn civic center into a giant homeless camp sitting as a painfully constant reminder outside the windows of city hall, the courthouse, the department of public health, and the state buildings.
- dzlobin 6y ago
  While I don’t disagree that SF is a mess, your example is completely wrong. That lot will become low-income housing and is temporarily being used as that. https://sfmohcd.org/730-stanyan https://sfmohcd.org/730-stanyan
baskire 6y ago
Don’t forget the pension issue https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/genuine-solutions-for-san-franciscos-pension-crisis/ https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/genuine-solutions-for-san-fr...
bambam24 6y ago
This article is totally lives in SF. Author should know that this story is same in every city in the world. Not just SF. He might hate SF or whatever but what happens in SF is happening in every city in the world. Good Morning
Wolfenstein98k 6y ago
San Fran is a bizarre place. I'm an Aussie, an Americanophile, and I was in the States for months last year. San Fran was simply unpleasant - the people were rude (young and old) and everything cost too much. The taxes were insane too. I couldn't bear to live there - Salt Lake City seemed to have the most similar upsides with next to none of the downsides.
- Hongwei 6y ago
  Canuck here who spends a lot of time in the States (or used to). SLC also has some of the most underrated and inexpensive skiing just 30 minutes out from the airport.
  - jakebol 6y ago
    Underrated it is not, just search for Cottonwood Canyon traffic jams to see what skiing really is like here when the snow flies. 30 minutes no traffic, can easily be 3+ hours now.
    - gboss 6y ago
      I'll take three hours over 12 hours which is how long it can take to get to Tahoe from SF on a Friday when it's snowing.
    - 2trill2spill 6y ago
      Exactly, a normal drive from my apartment to Brighton or Snowbird is about 45-50 minutes, I've had several times where it was just short of 3 hours one way, this past season.
- mseidl 6y ago
  There they have the sexy underwear in Utah. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_garment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_garment I used to live in the US, but I'm back home in Germany. I have 0 interest in going back.
  - 6y ago
thoughtstheseus 6y ago
Curious how local and state governments can face “fiscal chaos” while debt issues by the federal govt. is highly desirable. People say governments run deficits during economic downturns (which is true) but in the US local and state spending is more pro-cyclical.
- mylons 6y ago
  Cities can’t print money
  - xtacy 6y ago
    Didn't the Fed say it will buy up to $500B of municipal bonds as part of the new QE program?
    - mylons 6y ago
      Not sure, but the Fed is still in control here. They will buy as they see fit. Where as SF would almost certainly love to issue themselves some debt to pay these bills right now.
  - thoughtstheseus 6y ago
    I’m not an expert in this area but I don’t think the fed funds operations by printing money. They issue debt which people exchange for money. Although lately the fed just buys that debt back with printed money so...
    - mylons 6y ago
      They create money via debit issuance. You’re not wrong, but they in fact just created 3T+ dollars that kinda went everywhere unaccounted for. It’s just easier to say they can print money because the common man doesn’t quite understand how debt translates into new money.
      - quxpar 6y ago
tarr11 6y ago
Every major city seems to have its own flavor of this. See also: New York budget crisis [0], Chicago [1], Dallas [2], etc [0] https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/05/31/new-york-budget-crisis-bill-de-blasio-290108 https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/05/31/new-york-budget... [1] https://www.wbez.org/amp/stories/how-covid-19-could-hit-chicagos-budget/0b9b4290-d19f-479e-afe5-56691bc7cc54 https://www.wbez.org/amp/stories/how-covid-19-could-hit-chic... [2] https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/dallas-budget-crisis-presents-problem-current-officials-have-never-seen/2364765/?amp https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/dallas-budget-crisis-prese...
mc32 6y ago
CA has always been about boom and busts. Governor Brown knew this and kept a tight fist on the purse strings... to the chagrin and annoyance of the “we’re rich, let’s spend” crowd. If it were not for his fiscal conservatism it’s be even worse. Of course SF is the poster child for spending copious amounts of money on pet projects while ignoring the big issues.
- mylons 6y ago
  CA’s booms and busts now, for the state and city governments, is almost purely centered around Prop 13. The NIMBYs won. Unless you have owned a home for decades and have insanely low property taxes it’s extremely hard to weather these cycles. NIMBYs gain from the booms, and relax during the busts. And as a result of Prop 13 the state relies heavily on income taxes, when people leave or lose their jobs there goes the state income.
  - eanzenberg 6y ago
    Prop 13 is just homeowner fiscal responsibility. Repeal it and watch as existing homeowners are forced out of their homes onto God knows where, for factors out of their control, and in the hands of government officials who decide how much something is worth. Also, I’m not sure how many funds this would ultimately raise. Houses will flood the market as existing homeowners can’t afford their taxes, putting downward pressure on housing costs and ultimately decrease tax revenue.
    - firloop 6y ago
      > Prop 13 is just homeowner fiscal responsibility. This argument doesn’t hold up when you consider that Prop 13 applies to much more than single family homes; commercial property is included and wealthy land developers benefit greatly from the measure.
    - mc32 6y ago
      You could apply it to new sales —grandfather current owners to minimize that effect.
jlewis_st 6y ago
This article appears to be mostly cribbed from SF Chronicle's coverage, which has additional context and some discussion of pension obligations [0] [0] https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/heatherknight/article/SF-s-top-money-man-grapples-with-dire-forecasts-15304610.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/heatherknight/article/SF...
OrangeKnucles 6y ago
SF is Gotham.
BenjiWiebe 6y ago
They missed a great headline opportunity: 'Frisco faces fiscal fiasco.

Here’s the thing - I have been hearing doom and gloom about SF for 20 years. It will do fine

ipnon 6y ago
Bust is an overloaded term. The proposition here is that San Francisco is entering a multi year recession.
hiram112 6y ago
The problem has always been the pension obligations, specifically the medical costs. The math cannot be disputed. The reason why it really is different this time is because the Boomers will reach end of life, whether they like it or not, and medical costs rise exponentially in the last few years. States and localities who were in decent shape until now will be able to weather this storm by raising taxes (even more) on the younger generations. In California, there isn't anymore left to squeeze due to Prop 13.
- dmode 6y ago
  I mean California had a $27bn deficit 10 years back, but ended up with a $15bn rainy day fund. Even back then, I heard the exact doom and gloom. I will wait and see how this plays out.

I think a more accurate description would be that San Francisco chooses chaos. I've never lived anywhere more unreasonably governed. It's like the government is actively sabotaging quality of life and squandering its budget. One example--the city spent $15.5m to tear down a McDonalds in the Haight and turn it into a homeless tent camp.

drfuchs 6y ago
Hmmm. There was a lot of local support for the city to get rid of that very-problematic McDonalds, as the police were being called there on an average of once per day over drug dealing, shootings, etc. And the lot is slated to be developed into high-density housing, which is typically a popular notion in the HN crowd. https://sf.curbed.com/2018/4/2/17188892/haight-steet-mcdonalds-closes https://sf.curbed.com/2018/4/2/17188892/haight-steet-mcdonal...
- diogenescynic 6y ago
  Sure, but a homeless tent camp is a far cry from high-density housing. How long do the locals have to deal with a tent camp and all the associated problems? If you don't understand why spending $15.5m to actively make the lives worse of the locals and not really solve the problem--then I think you're missing why SF has budget problems. >For some nearby residents, the decision was met with dismay and frustration and a feeling of futility after they had spent weeks pleading with Preston’s office to find an alternative, like parking lots owned by the school district or City College and even Recreation and Park Department property. >“There are all of these large parking lots not being used that would be so much better than plopping this down in the middle of a residential area — an area we’ve struggled for decades to get control of on this end of Haight Street,” said Ted Loewenberg, president of the Haight-Ashbury Improvement Association. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/SF-to-open-sanctioned-tent-camp-on-old-15273859.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/SF-to-open-sanct...
  - staticautomatic 6y ago
    For as long as it takes. We should turn civic center into a giant homeless camp sitting as a painfully constant reminder outside the windows of city hall, the courthouse, the department of public health, and the state buildings.
dzlobin 6y ago
While I don’t disagree that SF is a mess, your example is completely wrong. That lot will become low-income housing and is temporarily being used as that. https://sfmohcd.org/730-stanyan https://sfmohcd.org/730-stanyan

baskire 6y ago

Don’t forget the pension issue https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/genuine-solutions-for-san-franciscos-pension-crisis/ https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/genuine-solutions-for-san-fr...

bambam24 6y ago

This article is totally lives in SF. Author should know that this story is same in every city in the world. Not just SF. He might hate SF or whatever but what happens in SF is happening in every city in the world. Good Morning

Wolfenstein98k 6y ago

San Fran is a bizarre place. I'm an Aussie, an Americanophile, and I was in the States for months last year. San Fran was simply unpleasant - the people were rude (young and old) and everything cost too much. The taxes were insane too. I couldn't bear to live there - Salt Lake City seemed to have the most similar upsides with next to none of the downsides.

Hongwei 6y ago
Canuck here who spends a lot of time in the States (or used to). SLC also has some of the most underrated and inexpensive skiing just 30 minutes out from the airport.
- jakebol 6y ago
  Underrated it is not, just search for Cottonwood Canyon traffic jams to see what skiing really is like here when the snow flies. 30 minutes no traffic, can easily be 3+ hours now.
  - gboss 6y ago
    I'll take three hours over 12 hours which is how long it can take to get to Tahoe from SF on a Friday when it's snowing.
  - 2trill2spill 6y ago
    Exactly, a normal drive from my apartment to Brighton or Snowbird is about 45-50 minutes, I've had several times where it was just short of 3 hours one way, this past season.
mseidl 6y ago
There they have the sexy underwear in Utah. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_garment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_garment I used to live in the US, but I'm back home in Germany. I have 0 interest in going back.
- 6y ago

thoughtstheseus 6y ago

Curious how local and state governments can face “fiscal chaos” while debt issues by the federal govt. is highly desirable. People say governments run deficits during economic downturns (which is true) but in the US local and state spending is more pro-cyclical.

mylons 6y ago
Cities can’t print money
- xtacy 6y ago
  Didn't the Fed say it will buy up to $500B of municipal bonds as part of the new QE program?
  - mylons 6y ago
    Not sure, but the Fed is still in control here. They will buy as they see fit. Where as SF would almost certainly love to issue themselves some debt to pay these bills right now.
- thoughtstheseus 6y ago
  I’m not an expert in this area but I don’t think the fed funds operations by printing money. They issue debt which people exchange for money. Although lately the fed just buys that debt back with printed money so...
  - mylons 6y ago
    They create money via debit issuance. You’re not wrong, but they in fact just created 3T+ dollars that kinda went everywhere unaccounted for. It’s just easier to say they can print money because the common man doesn’t quite understand how debt translates into new money.
    - quxpar 6y ago

tarr11 6y ago

Every major city seems to have its own flavor of this. See also: New York budget crisis [0], Chicago [1], Dallas [2], etc [0] https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/05/31/new-york-budget-crisis-bill-de-blasio-290108 https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/05/31/new-york-budget... [1] https://www.wbez.org/amp/stories/how-covid-19-could-hit-chicagos-budget/0b9b4290-d19f-479e-afe5-56691bc7cc54 https://www.wbez.org/amp/stories/how-covid-19-could-hit-chic... [2] https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/dallas-budget-crisis-presents-problem-current-officials-have-never-seen/2364765/?amp https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/dallas-budget-crisis-prese...

mc32 6y ago

CA has always been about boom and busts. Governor Brown knew this and kept a tight fist on the purse strings... to the chagrin and annoyance of the “we’re rich, let’s spend” crowd. If it were not for his fiscal conservatism it’s be even worse. Of course SF is the poster child for spending copious amounts of money on pet projects while ignoring the big issues.

mylons 6y ago
CA’s booms and busts now, for the state and city governments, is almost purely centered around Prop 13. The NIMBYs won. Unless you have owned a home for decades and have insanely low property taxes it’s extremely hard to weather these cycles. NIMBYs gain from the booms, and relax during the busts. And as a result of Prop 13 the state relies heavily on income taxes, when people leave or lose their jobs there goes the state income.
- eanzenberg 6y ago
  Prop 13 is just homeowner fiscal responsibility. Repeal it and watch as existing homeowners are forced out of their homes onto God knows where, for factors out of their control, and in the hands of government officials who decide how much something is worth. Also, I’m not sure how many funds this would ultimately raise. Houses will flood the market as existing homeowners can’t afford their taxes, putting downward pressure on housing costs and ultimately decrease tax revenue.
  - firloop 6y ago
    > Prop 13 is just homeowner fiscal responsibility. This argument doesn’t hold up when you consider that Prop 13 applies to much more than single family homes; commercial property is included and wealthy land developers benefit greatly from the measure.
  - mc32 6y ago
    You could apply it to new sales —grandfather current owners to minimize that effect.

jlewis_st 6y ago

This article appears to be mostly cribbed from SF Chronicle's coverage, which has additional context and some discussion of pension obligations [0] [0] https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/heatherknight/article/SF-s-top-money-man-grapples-with-dire-forecasts-15304610.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/heatherknight/article/SF...

OrangeKnucles 6y ago

SF is Gotham.

BenjiWiebe 6y ago

They missed a great headline opportunity: 'Frisco faces fiscal fiasco.