12 ms·
A call to honesty in pandemic modeling
- woofie11 6y agoI think the assumption is that in 2 months, we'll have test capacity, lower number of cases, and we'll be able to switch to containment. But this assumption definitely needs to be articulated.
- lowdose 6y agoSuch an assumption should be explicitly been represented in the prediction model. Cutting off the time window of a model at an arbitrary period of 2 months is ambiguous at best when the model is about estimating the cumulative outcome in time.
- lern_too_spel 6y agoThe point of these models is to estimate peak utilization of health facilities, not to predict outcomes of different remedies after the initial suppression period.