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Coronavirus has been circulating for months now. Many of us have already beaten it. That's why spread is linear and not gripping the world like it should be at

Coronavirus has been circulating for months now. Many of us have already beaten it. That's why spread is linear and not gripping the world like it should be at this point: The "spread" is a measurement of panic and vigilant diagnosis. This is most carefully observed cold of all time. I was stocking up on dry goods and such like everybody else. After the past few days I feel like a panicked fool. Almost every single death report: "Had underlying health conditions."

elicash 7y ago
Vigilant diagnosis? Isn't the biggest issue for the U.S. right now that we're not able to test nearly enough people? As far as stocking up, my understanding was that the reason for picking up an extra couple items each time you go to the store was in case eventually certain areas are rec'd to work from home and such. Maybe that won't happen, but it's not like that stuff would go to waste.
- crystaldev 7y ago
  We're testing people who would ordinarily not be tested already. That doesn't mean the diagnosis is wrong, or that COVID-19 isn't widespread.
  - elicash 7y ago
    I know it's widespread. The extent to which that's the case, unfortunately, we have no idea because there hasn't been enough testing. Not sure what you mean by "ordinarily" tested. This pandemic is quite a unique situation.
bob33212 7y ago
If the death rate was 10% across the board we would know how far it has spread. But this cold may have a 0.001% hospitalization or death rate for people in great health. There could already be 100,000 people infected in the states. We may be close to the point of saying "fuck it. False alarm this is just a cold. Carry on". Hard to know for sure though until a couple weeks go by
- lucb1e 7y ago
  From another comment, in Italy the numbers are worse than previously reported rather than better. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22476675 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22476675 I did not check their source. Just saying that "we may be close to saying `false alarm`" seems almost certainly ill-informed.
  - bob33212 7y ago
    How can you be "almost certain" of the future based on numbers from 1 article you didn't even read?
    - lucb1e 7y ago
      and based on that nobody else (like WHO, local authorities near me or my parents, or even journalists) says that.
  - learc83 7y ago
    Based on confirmed cases. There are likely far more cases that haven't been tested.
natalyarostova 7y ago
You know, some of us have family with underlying health conditions.
- anthonypasq 7y ago
  ok? Then do everything you normally would to avoid the flu. There is no difference.
  - natalyarostova 7y ago
    At this point the amount of evidence showing this is different than the flu is so overwhelming that you're either grossly misinformed (likely) or being disingenuous (less likely).
  - koheripbal 7y ago
    Do nothing different despite the risk of death being 100x higher? Does that really sound logical to you?
    - anthonypasq 7y ago
      where are you getting that preposterous number from?
      - koheripbal 7y ago
        From the WHO and the CDC. The WHO released the figure 3.4% yesterday, and the CDC lists the flu this season as causing 18000 deaths in the US from 32 million infections = 0.05%.
koheripbal 7y ago
This is not factual. Do the math. Starting with a couple cases, it takes 10 generations (two months) for the numbers to be large enough to be noticeable.

elicash 7y ago

Vigilant diagnosis? Isn't the biggest issue for the U.S. right now that we're not able to test nearly enough people? As far as stocking up, my understanding was that the reason for picking up an extra couple items each time you go to the store was in case eventually certain areas are rec'd to work from home and such. Maybe that won't happen, but it's not like that stuff would go to waste.

crystaldev 7y ago
We're testing people who would ordinarily not be tested already. That doesn't mean the diagnosis is wrong, or that COVID-19 isn't widespread.
- elicash 7y ago
  I know it's widespread. The extent to which that's the case, unfortunately, we have no idea because there hasn't been enough testing. Not sure what you mean by "ordinarily" tested. This pandemic is quite a unique situation.

bob33212 7y ago

If the death rate was 10% across the board we would know how far it has spread. But this cold may have a 0.001% hospitalization or death rate for people in great health. There could already be 100,000 people infected in the states. We may be close to the point of saying "fuck it. False alarm this is just a cold. Carry on". Hard to know for sure though until a couple weeks go by

lucb1e 7y ago
From another comment, in Italy the numbers are worse than previously reported rather than better. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22476675 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22476675 I did not check their source. Just saying that "we may be close to saying `false alarm`" seems almost certainly ill-informed.
- bob33212 7y ago
  How can you be "almost certain" of the future based on numbers from 1 article you didn't even read?
  - lucb1e 7y ago
    and based on that nobody else (like WHO, local authorities near me or my parents, or even journalists) says that.
- learc83 7y ago
  Based on confirmed cases. There are likely far more cases that haven't been tested.

natalyarostova 7y ago

You know, some of us have family with underlying health conditions.

anthonypasq 7y ago
ok? Then do everything you normally would to avoid the flu. There is no difference.
- natalyarostova 7y ago
  At this point the amount of evidence showing this is different than the flu is so overwhelming that you're either grossly misinformed (likely) or being disingenuous (less likely).
- koheripbal 7y ago
  Do nothing different despite the risk of death being 100x higher? Does that really sound logical to you?
  - anthonypasq 7y ago
    where are you getting that preposterous number from?
    - koheripbal 7y ago
      From the WHO and the CDC. The WHO released the figure 3.4% yesterday, and the CDC lists the flu this season as causing 18000 deaths in the US from 32 million infections = 0.05%.

koheripbal 7y ago

This is not factual. Do the math. Starting with a couple cases, it takes 10 generations (two months) for the numbers to be large enough to be noticeable.