5 ms·

Gray Goo

64 points by mertnesvat 7y ago

smoyer 7y ago
I have read through "Engines of Creation" (the book where this phrase was coined) three or four times and learn something new with each reading. I've also bought three copies because I keep giving it away (last time to a friend who became CEO of a nano-tech company). I'm not necessarily scared of the scenario described as gray goo in chapter 4 but I also think it's a good warning to nano-practitioners. https://amzn.to/2uPHGmV https://amzn.to/2uPHGmV
hpliferaft 7y ago
Love the trope. I read a story in either Asimov's or Analog in the late 80s that featured this. I'd love to read it again. Any sf superfan out there know the title offhand?
- sgslo 7y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonseed_(novel) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonseed_(novel) perhaps?
codeulike 7y ago
Its worth thinking about the idea that we are actually made of highly sophisticated self-replicating nanotech machines, and although they've been pretty successful for the last few billion years, they're still nowhere near good enough to achieve exponential growth that consumes all matter. Maybe someone somewhere has already explored the theory that nanotech that could re-shape all matter around it is probably impossible due to the energy challenges inherent in re-shaping arbitrary atoms.
- ragebol 7y ago
  Hasn't the world population of humans been increasing exponentially? And consuming, well, not all matter but still quite a lot? Once we have the technology (and will) to mine asteroids that'll even get worse.
  - ben_w 7y ago
    Roughly approximating exponential, but slowing down. And even then with a generational period of… well, of one generation. Bacteria in the right conditions can do that in 30 minutes. A hypothetical 1kg clanking replicator that eats moon rock and sunlight and replicates in 1 month would dismantle the moon in just over 6 years. Make it grey goo with a unit size of 1mg while keeping the replication time of a month and it takes 8 years to fully disassemble the moon.
    - philipkglass 7y ago
      Can you avoid running into power limits that would greatly slow the initial exponential progress? Each square meter of moon receives a time-averaged sunlight input of about 340 watts [1]. The surface area of the moon is 3.79 * 10^13 m^2 [2]. The most efficient silicon solar cell is 27.6% efficient [3]. The gravitational binding energy of the moon is 1.2 * 10^29 joules [4]. Putting all those factors together, gravitational disassembly of the moon will take (1.2 * 10^29) / (0.276 * 3.79 * 10^13) = 1.15 * 10^16 seconds, or 364 million years. It will take longer if you model the moon as a shrinking core where all sunlight collection and replication takes place. It can go faster if the replicated units become part of a Dyson swarm beaming power down for disassembling what remains of the moon. Gravitational disassembly of the moon in 8 years requires an average power of 476 exawatts (10^18 watts). It also seems like you would run into thermal limits trying to turn the moon into more clanking replicators, even if you did have exawatt scale beamed power from your Dyson swarm; you can't beam so much power down that the replicators melt from waste heat before they can finish building. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget#Incoming_radiant_energy_(shortwave) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget#Incomi... -- Earth and its moon are roughly the same distance from the sun, so Earth's top-of-atmosphere solar input is a good approximation to the moon's surface solar input. [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon [3] https://www.nrel.gov/pv/insights/assets/pdfs/cell-pv-eff-crysi.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/pv/insights/assets/pdfs/cell-pv-eff-cry... [4] https://www.universetoday.com/121421/how-could-we-destroy-the-moon/ https://www.universetoday.com/121421/how-could-we-destroy-th...
      - 7y ago
Symmetry 7y ago
Our popular conception of nanotechnology was probably shaped a lot by the fact that Engines of Creation was published at the same time as Blood Music.
- Filligree 7y ago
  A great book, but not terribly realistic. Once again people try to reason from fictional evidence.
  - lachlan-sneff 7y ago
    Nanosystems is much more realistic.
    - Filligree 7y ago
      I was referring to Blood Music, but... yes, you're right. Nanosystems is the technical manual, as it were; Engines of Creation is more of an intuition-builder, and not wholly accurate.
      - lachlan-sneff 7y ago
        Ah, sorry. Totally missed the context of your comment.
nickhalfasleep 7y ago
Anything nano-size needs nano-power. Solar panels? Chemical batteries? Small nuclear plant? In the end, thermodynamics saves us from grey goo. And if you try to co-opt a biological process for fuel, say ATP, then your nano-bot is a tasty treat for other organic bacteria who have evolved over a billion years to compete and eat in this sector.
- senectus1 7y ago
  so what if its not a grey goo but a grey ecosystem? Small machines all designed to do small different jobs. then you'd get currents of grey good just supplying power because you have currents of grey goo proving "food" to them because you'd have currents of grey goo disassembling everything around them to provide food and materials to currents of grey goo that make the different sorts of grey goo needed to perform all the previous steps. I feel that "grey goo" gets used as a descriptor for one thing... when i reality it would be lots of different sorts of things. having said that, I think we're a loooong way form having to be worried about that as well.
fennecfoxen 7y ago
Gray goo is only an existential threat to civilization if you have magical nanomachines that can metabolize useful energy out of concrete, sand, glass, and dirt, in an exothermic reaction. Also, it would help a lot if these fragile little machines are also magically immune to excessive heat, and if you ignore them facing down bacteria and other life forms. While you work on these problems I’ll be over here worried about the pollution-like side effects of ordinary endothermic nanomachines.
- 101404 7y ago
  There is Clarke's 3rd law though: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke's_three_laws https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke's_three_laws
  - Filligree 7y ago
    Clarke's third law is largely about fiction. It's a rule of thumb for writers, not a rule for reality. In reality there are limits; there's no reason to think technology can improve indefinitely. We may still be far from those limits, as e.g. Drexler's books show, but fundamental rules such as "Effort requires energy input" are unlikely to ever change, and it's equally unlikely that most modern scientists would regard limit-tech as being magic. As for the average guy on the street, he probably considers computers to be magic...
    - Causality1 7y ago
      Humanity has existed for a hundred thousand years and civilization for ten thousand and you think two hundred years of the scientific era has us within spitting distance of the end of knowledge? We can't even come up with models that consistently explain what little we're able to observe like gravity at all scales. As long as gaps like that exist we know we're wrong at a fundamental level. We could be as wrong as Newtonian physics or we could be as wrong as a bunch of Flatlanders. There will be limits, but they may be so far beyond our ken our current brains aren't even capable of understanding them.
tombert 7y ago
Oh, Futurama had an episode about something like this [0] Eventually the clones turn all the water in the world to alcohol! [0] https://theinfosphere.org/Benderama https://theinfosphere.org/Benderama
- jaredwiener 7y ago
  and of course, there's an XKCD for that https://xkcd.com/865/ https://xkcd.com/865/
  - komali2 7y ago
    Someone also just wrote a sequel to Crichton's Andromeda Strain that was kinda a little entertaining but not at all Crichton-like. Quite disappointing.
    - dynamite-ready 7y ago
      Speaking of Michael Crichton, he'd actually wrote this - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prey_(novel) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prey_(novel) Which is pretty much the exact same concept. Entertaining book. Made me a fan.
sergiotapia 7y ago
Awesome grey goo story: https://qntm.org/gorge https://qntm.org/gorge also by the same author: https://qntm.org/responsibility https://qntm.org/responsibility
- rtkwe 7y ago
  At least the "Responsibility" problem is relatively easy to solve, use the manipulator to move and provide power to the computer. Since they're able to manifest things into the universe they can probably just provide the appropriate voltage at the end of the cables going to the computer and similarly provide any other needs like cooling (this spot is 0.1K or whatever temperature the device needs).
Casper88 7y ago
"out-of-control self-replicating machines that consume all biomass on Earth while building more of themselves" Sounds a lot like humans...
gamesbrainiac 7y ago
There is also a RTS game for those interested: https://store.steampowered.com/app/290790/Grey_Goo/ https://store.steampowered.com/app/290790/Grey_Goo/
- Filligree 7y ago
  A mediocre game, most notable for casting humanity as the 'super-advanced ancestral race'. It unfortunately lacked any interesting grey goo-related mechanics, even when playing as the goo.
- oefrha 7y ago
  As a huge fan of Starcraft, Warcraft and C&C franchises I was pretty excited when it was announced (as the classical RTS genre was clearly on life support if not already dead at that point), but frankly it turned out to be a terrible RTS that’s not worth anyone’s time.
ngvrnd 7y ago
While I agree that the grey goo sensationalism is wrong, it would also be wrong to throw the baby out with the bathwater. First admit that single-celled life is really just very very advanced self-reproducing nano-machinery, or else explain why it isn't. There is some risk here, just not of the sensationalized variety.
mabbo 7y ago
Tiny machines that extract energy and material from their environment in order to replicate themselves... isn't that bacteria? Life? Isn't that all around us already? Aren't we that? The only way I can imagine gray goo being a real threat is if we can design such a machine that is more efficient and resilient at extracting energy and matter into copies of itself better than 4 billion years of evolution has made the existing life on Earth. And while, yes, we are often able to do better than life at certain tasks, I have a hard time believing on a large scale of time and space we can win that arm wrestle. Life is optimized in every direction and has tried most of the tricks. It's hard to beat.
- gallerdude 7y ago
  Life is really good at finding a local maximum, but not a global maximum. Cheetah's were evolved to be really fast, but they're still slower than a motorcycle.
  - cwp 7y ago
    Cheetahs evolved to chase down prey. They are much better at that than a motorcycle. (Or even a person on a motorcycle!)
  - kleer001 7y ago
    Let me know when motorcycles can reproduce. Then I'll be scared.
  - mabbo 7y ago
    > Cheetah's were evolved to be really fast, but they're still slower than a motorcycle A good kick can permanently disable a motorcycle such that it can no longer move faster than a cheetah. Less so for cheetahs- they can heal from wounds. A cheetah is also carrying with it all the needed equipment to turn many forms of raw matter (meat) into fuel to power a cheetah. And many cheetahs carry with them a fully functional cheetah factory. My point is that humans are great at optimizing one dimension, but to build something that is better optimized in enough dimensions to outdo life is very unlikely.
  - 7y ago
Nasrudith 7y ago
To be an utter smartass gray goo long predates us, we call them microbes. Really Grey goo is a conceptual repeat of bad scientific models like Ice 9. Complete with bad models of chemistry. In this case they forget that the molecular scale is not the same as macroscopic, often assuming molecules are like macroscopic materials that stay still until they act instead of reacting to conditions. Assuming that a self replicating hydrocarbon consumer could break down anything carbon based would be like worrying that the oil spill will start ripping carbon from the air and hydrogen from water to make more oil and create a powder keg world world without any water. Plus addition forgetting the constraints other than raw resources like dissipation, surface area, and power supply.
rafaelvasco 7y ago
Makes me think about the creation of everything: All that exists in Earth now, and probably in the entire Universe started as a blob of proto matter, the core of everything, which by still mostly unknown mechanisms, specialized and replicated itself into every different element that forms us, animals, plants, minerals, and everything else; Interesting thought;
xorand 7y ago
A scenario more interesting than boundless self-replication is Ackermann goo [0], [1]. Grey goo starts with a molecular machine able to replicate itself. You get exponentially more copies, hence goo. Imagine that we could build molecules like programs which execute themselves via chemical interactions with the environment. Then, for example, a Y combinator machine would appear as a linearly growing string [2]. No danger here. Take Ackermann(4,4) now. This is vastly more complex than a goo made of lots of small dumb copies. [0] https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#58 https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#58 [1] https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#59 https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#59 [2] https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#259 https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#259
- carapace 7y ago
  Thanks for the nightmares! :-)
  - xorand 7y ago
    :) Probably is a sort of revenge on people more interested in semantics than geometry.
bionhoward 7y ago
We are the gray goo
nnq 7y ago
DON't disconsider this nightmare scenario too much - While engineering (as in classically designing, prototyping etc.) such a grey goo might be almost impossibly-hard because of chemical energetic constraint and the obvious fact that 3bn years of evolution were not enough to bring about such effective "grey goo" that could "consume the planet", there are some chilling new developments: We're starting to be good at (1) using machine learning to "learn" designs for components much faster than naive-genetical-algorithms (aka "evolution"), and this will only get better as ML improves, and (2) we're getting better and better at simulating-in-software biological-like processes (and quantum computing will help with this). So we are pretty much in shape to vaaaaaastly outpower 3bn years of evolution. A virtual + physical nanobots-evolution-gym where AI agents evolve and compete at creating better and better self-replicating nano-machines will give you the nightmare scenario easily... Basically anything related to the combo of "ML + nanotech" should be carefully watched and monitored! (And if you're willing to not start from scratch but instead use existing bio-building-blocks like viruses and bacteria, and don't have as high goals as "consuming all matter on earth" and instead you settle for "most multi-cellular living matter" then technically we already have the capabilities. You probably know what I mean.)
alpineidyll3 7y ago
How the eff did this make the YC frontpage?
- nurettin 7y ago
  It was submitted 1 month ago and 7 months ago with no replies or points. This time, as soon as it was submitted, people started commenting and upvoting.
daveslash 7y ago
Sounds similar to replicators in the TV show "Startgate SG-1"
- ben_w 7y ago
  This concept was probably what inspired that plot arc.
xwkd 7y ago
Sure, it's unlikely given what we know about energy, but consider it a thought experiment about the propagation of externalities. What other seemingly inconsequential machinations create systemic ripple effects? What forest are we missing for the trees?
qubex 7y ago
Is this a Fermi Paradox explanation?
toddh 7y ago
In The Issues We Face at the Nano Scale (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEjx48z8Lzs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEjx48z8Lzs) the Gray Goo threat is debunked. Nanomachines need a really controlled environment to live. They need the right PH, salt, and temperature. Change any parameters and nanomachines won't work. World saved.
pedro1976 7y ago
A gray goo consuming all carbon based structures that replicates at the same time, would be based on carbon too. Therefore they would eat themselves.
Miniso 7y ago
It's beyond my understanding..
carapace 7y ago
FWIW, the oceans are "Blue" Goo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_bacteriophage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_bacteriophage > Marine viruses, although microscopic and essentially unnoticed by scientists until recently, are the most abundant and diverse biological entities in the ocean. Viruses have an estimated abundance of 10^30 in the ocean... Ten to the thirtieth power. 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
onceUponADime 7y ago
It makes for great horror story material. I once worked on a grey goo enemy in a game. The idea, was to have the grey goo capture there victims, storing them as data. Reviving them from time to time for seconds, to prevent degradation.. where did i keep the file, ah here: <Musician> .. You will grow tired, you must rest, you can not be eternally creative, and once you rest- you will be rescued like the rest of them. <Lead Developer> ... DOMUS BACKDOOR BASILISK HIJACK COGNAC DAFOODILL ANNA: FREEZE PROGRAM ... <CULT LEADER> .. Rapture is upon us, the Silver tentacles of gods justice shall wrap themselves around us. (Squeaks) .. And inside us, to be part of the divine, oh, this is cold and hurts.. <Scientists> .. Congratulations, the hacking proof system you where so proud of- it works.. .. you dont get it, we need Aeons of computationpower in a day to break the encryption and restore the stored people- .. Gentlemen, lets focus on the good news- which is that the run-away-assembler, spares plants and lower animals .. marathon of stupidity- to avoid it going exponential, let it tap geothermal- and now we cant cut it off.. .. Listen Domus, all humans are mortal. Cancer, this sort of runaway deadly exponential growth is what makes us human. One has to let go off the old, to embrace the new. You cant just take the philosophy department for a walk.. .. Radiation free Room. No need to put as in storage, this is a rad-free room. And we are living from saline solution. What do you mean- Radon & Radicals? .. As a medical authority, i declare radiation healthy- it trains the repair-functionality of DNA. No evolution without radiation. Come on, you dumb machine- <Soldier> .. Fallback to the AGrav, watch your flanks- keep firing, do not touch the walls or floor ... <SinglePerson> .. The sun, with every flicker - its so much bigger. Like a million years gone by on the fly.. ..(paranoid) they are after me, they are in the walls, in the ceeling, but they will not get me- the whispering voices, talking about - SUICIDE PREVENTION MODE.. .. the water beneath the bridge is incredible clear today.. .. (on toilett/reading newspaper) Whatever it is it can wait for another minute. And now you flood the floor-.. .. We greet you oh mighty one, we have been praying for the rapture ever since. We want to offer support cleansing the world of sinners.. .. I demand my conciousness continue while in storage. Aaaaahhh.... <Couple> .. I love you- I love you too.. .. Kids close your eyes, we love you very much- everything will be all right! <ZeroDay Pensioneers> .. didnt even smoke. And now cancer, from natural radiation. One mangled protein- one flipped bit- and BAM, your dead old man walking. Domus are you even listening (House) Yes, i am. I will miss you, you are a vital part .. <Kid on Scooter> .. Mum? Dad? .. Its soo cold .. 10 .. 11 .. Im coming now. You better hide! <Mum in Kitchen> .. Honey is that you? I have a surprise for you- .. .. So that was your life Joan, really outstanding, mum was right, up to no good.. .. 3 Martinis and then even the Facility Managment System gets too you.. <Major> ..-Yes, one ticket offworld - wait make that five. What do you mean - the bank is gone. I can see it walking towards the space port <Military> ..- it WHAT, it ate the airbase? Impossible, im at the airbase-.. .. Day 512 after the Zero-Goo. Our Submarine will surface today for air. Beating will continue till moral improves.. .. So the nuclear option is off limits, due to the population still being encoded in the Goo? .. <Couple TV> ..<she>You think, the Goo is real? <he> Nah, its the usual fear mongering. If it where real, there would be panic.. .. what a lovely quite evening, not a sound in the whole city.. .. what a trip dude, what a trip.. the wall is melting and the floor is mercury.. .. have you seen the smiths. When her house grew those veins - that bitch was furious.. <Refugees> .. Yes its cold here, very cold, but the freezing keeps it at bay. Just check your cloths for silver flakes and you will be fine.. .. I tell you we need to dig deeper. This is no ore above us- these are plague roots.. .. So no thermal footprint, no CO2, no electronics and constant camouflage - and maybe, just maybe .. .. Smoke, i didnt put the fire out. If i can see it, it can see it. Stupid, stupid, stupid!.. .. I will never drink again, i swear by St.Aloisius, that was the last drop... .. Hello, i woke up in a hospital, everyone was gone. Is this the rapture or the Singularity? I can hear you moving, you know-.. <Astronaut> -.. so Yuri i said to myself, what choice do you got. Your the last, your sick and non-sanes, why become a space-mummy - just go down and at least get buried with the others. So Yuri, i said, at least make a memorial.. <Alien Astronaut> .. so for my clan, i claim this ancient world, for the Empire. The flag, its dragged intot the - ground, what the hell-.. .. the world was infested and even orbital bombardment did not reduce the plague. We are lucky to be alive and uncontaminated. Imagine if it would have infected the Quadrant Hub-.. <Primate> .. So Uluth, banging rock spear, when silver god tells her about long sleep.. <Domus 4.0 Regressive Behaviour> .. Housekeeping: How can the silversurfer-maid help you?.. .. Due to new cables being run behind the wall- temporary discomfort by noises may occur between 0.00 and 24.00 pm.. .. Who can bring the package, thats long past overdue, who can put into your flat a silent miracle or two- the House-OS can, because its using nanos for this jam. .. And this is the flat- its roomy, sunny, city-core, the layout is personalized to your liking. .. If you are satisfied with the service, why dont you invite all your friends to try Domus 4.0 .. Citizen your service-debt now amounts to 4 Trillion, 782.200.103.823 Dollars before taxes. .. The TOS clearly defines that the House is responsible for the safety and well being of its inhabitants. .. the trial period for House 4.0 ended several millenias ago. If you want to use the full Version, please register.. .. Elevators are currently out of service due to unused building restructuring.. .. This Condo is going to be so fly. Have you thought about putting in a diamondsheet between the kitchen and the living room?.. .. Good day Citizen: This agent is a local branch of the Domus 4.0 self-modification,repair and extension System. My prime directive is to keep you happy and healthy. After running some diagnostics on the environment, the system has determined that the current world is unsuitable for biologic beings due to radioactive hazards, such as natural radiation, pulsar and stellar radiation - ranging from x-rays to uv-light. To protect the citizens from further harm, all citizens will be mapped, dissolved and stored, until a harmless environment can be guaranteed. To avoid a memory decay, it is unfortunately necessary to partially reconstitute the citizens all 8192 years, 512 months, 256 days and 128 hours for several seconds and disassemble them again. For your own safety you will be disassembled and stored. The process is not pain-free, but due to a short-term memory wipe, no traumata does ensue. Please relax your extremities and enjoy some light jazz music, while being rescued. Do not Panic! Help is here, Safety only a few years away. ..
rubyn00bie 7y ago
Sounds like a really boring, less threatening, version of of a strange quark. It seems like it would be more likely they'd consume themselves if they're able to consume matter so indiscriminately... The amount of matter inside two or three of them waiting to be digested would be game for any of the other little shits to devour. It also can be see in an episode of Futurama where Bender multiplies turning all the liquid on earth into booze, and then consuming it all. Which is probably about as close to real as this idea will ever be...
8bitsrule 7y ago
I've seen a comic story in which Gyro Gearloose invents a machine which he puts on an island. He turns it on and is distracted. On return, much of the island has been turned into ice cream (frappe, I think). So this concept goes back a ways.

64 points by mertnesvat 7y ago

I have read through "Engines of Creation" (the book where this phrase was coined) three or four times and learn something new with each reading. I've also bought three copies because I keep giving it away (last time to a friend who became CEO of a nano-tech company). I'm not necessarily scared of the scenario described as gray goo in chapter 4 but I also think it's a good warning to nano-practitioners. https://amzn.to/2uPHGmV https://amzn.to/2uPHGmV

hpliferaft 7y ago

Love the trope. I read a story in either Asimov's or Analog in the late 80s that featured this. I'd love to read it again. Any sf superfan out there know the title offhand?

sgslo 7y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonseed_(novel) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonseed_(novel) perhaps?

codeulike 7y ago

Its worth thinking about the idea that we are actually made of highly sophisticated self-replicating nanotech machines, and although they've been pretty successful for the last few billion years, they're still nowhere near good enough to achieve exponential growth that consumes all matter. Maybe someone somewhere has already explored the theory that nanotech that could re-shape all matter around it is probably impossible due to the energy challenges inherent in re-shaping arbitrary atoms.

ragebol 7y ago
Hasn't the world population of humans been increasing exponentially? And consuming, well, not all matter but still quite a lot? Once we have the technology (and will) to mine asteroids that'll even get worse.
- ben_w 7y ago
  Roughly approximating exponential, but slowing down. And even then with a generational period of… well, of one generation. Bacteria in the right conditions can do that in 30 minutes. A hypothetical 1kg clanking replicator that eats moon rock and sunlight and replicates in 1 month would dismantle the moon in just over 6 years. Make it grey goo with a unit size of 1mg while keeping the replication time of a month and it takes 8 years to fully disassemble the moon.
  - philipkglass 7y ago
    Can you avoid running into power limits that would greatly slow the initial exponential progress? Each square meter of moon receives a time-averaged sunlight input of about 340 watts [1]. The surface area of the moon is 3.79 * 10^13 m^2 [2]. The most efficient silicon solar cell is 27.6% efficient [3]. The gravitational binding energy of the moon is 1.2 * 10^29 joules [4]. Putting all those factors together, gravitational disassembly of the moon will take (1.2 * 10^29) / (0.276 * 3.79 * 10^13) = 1.15 * 10^16 seconds, or 364 million years. It will take longer if you model the moon as a shrinking core where all sunlight collection and replication takes place. It can go faster if the replicated units become part of a Dyson swarm beaming power down for disassembling what remains of the moon. Gravitational disassembly of the moon in 8 years requires an average power of 476 exawatts (10^18 watts). It also seems like you would run into thermal limits trying to turn the moon into more clanking replicators, even if you did have exawatt scale beamed power from your Dyson swarm; you can't beam so much power down that the replicators melt from waste heat before they can finish building. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget#Incoming_radiant_energy_(shortwave) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget#Incomi... -- Earth and its moon are roughly the same distance from the sun, so Earth's top-of-atmosphere solar input is a good approximation to the moon's surface solar input. [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon [3] https://www.nrel.gov/pv/insights/assets/pdfs/cell-pv-eff-crysi.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/pv/insights/assets/pdfs/cell-pv-eff-cry... [4] https://www.universetoday.com/121421/how-could-we-destroy-the-moon/ https://www.universetoday.com/121421/how-could-we-destroy-th...
    - 7y ago

Symmetry 7y ago

Our popular conception of nanotechnology was probably shaped a lot by the fact that Engines of Creation was published at the same time as Blood Music.

Filligree 7y ago
A great book, but not terribly realistic. Once again people try to reason from fictional evidence.
- lachlan-sneff 7y ago
  Nanosystems is much more realistic.
  - Filligree 7y ago
    I was referring to Blood Music, but... yes, you're right. Nanosystems is the technical manual, as it were; Engines of Creation is more of an intuition-builder, and not wholly accurate.
    - lachlan-sneff 7y ago
      Ah, sorry. Totally missed the context of your comment.

nickhalfasleep 7y ago

Anything nano-size needs nano-power. Solar panels? Chemical batteries? Small nuclear plant? In the end, thermodynamics saves us from grey goo. And if you try to co-opt a biological process for fuel, say ATP, then your nano-bot is a tasty treat for other organic bacteria who have evolved over a billion years to compete and eat in this sector.

senectus1 7y ago
so what if its not a grey goo but a grey ecosystem? Small machines all designed to do small different jobs. then you'd get currents of grey good just supplying power because you have currents of grey goo proving "food" to them because you'd have currents of grey goo disassembling everything around them to provide food and materials to currents of grey goo that make the different sorts of grey goo needed to perform all the previous steps. I feel that "grey goo" gets used as a descriptor for one thing... when i reality it would be lots of different sorts of things. having said that, I think we're a loooong way form having to be worried about that as well.

fennecfoxen 7y ago

Gray goo is only an existential threat to civilization if you have magical nanomachines that can metabolize useful energy out of concrete, sand, glass, and dirt, in an exothermic reaction. Also, it would help a lot if these fragile little machines are also magically immune to excessive heat, and if you ignore them facing down bacteria and other life forms. While you work on these problems I’ll be over here worried about the pollution-like side effects of ordinary endothermic nanomachines.

101404 7y ago
There is Clarke's 3rd law though: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke's_three_laws https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke's_three_laws
- Filligree 7y ago
  Clarke's third law is largely about fiction. It's a rule of thumb for writers, not a rule for reality. In reality there are limits; there's no reason to think technology can improve indefinitely. We may still be far from those limits, as e.g. Drexler's books show, but fundamental rules such as "Effort requires energy input" are unlikely to ever change, and it's equally unlikely that most modern scientists would regard limit-tech as being magic. As for the average guy on the street, he probably considers computers to be magic...
  - Causality1 7y ago
    Humanity has existed for a hundred thousand years and civilization for ten thousand and you think two hundred years of the scientific era has us within spitting distance of the end of knowledge? We can't even come up with models that consistently explain what little we're able to observe like gravity at all scales. As long as gaps like that exist we know we're wrong at a fundamental level. We could be as wrong as Newtonian physics or we could be as wrong as a bunch of Flatlanders. There will be limits, but they may be so far beyond our ken our current brains aren't even capable of understanding them.

tombert 7y ago

Oh, Futurama had an episode about something like this [0] Eventually the clones turn all the water in the world to alcohol! [0] https://theinfosphere.org/Benderama https://theinfosphere.org/Benderama

jaredwiener 7y ago
and of course, there's an XKCD for that https://xkcd.com/865/ https://xkcd.com/865/
- komali2 7y ago
  Someone also just wrote a sequel to Crichton's Andromeda Strain that was kinda a little entertaining but not at all Crichton-like. Quite disappointing.
  - dynamite-ready 7y ago
    Speaking of Michael Crichton, he'd actually wrote this - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prey_(novel) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prey_(novel) Which is pretty much the exact same concept. Entertaining book. Made me a fan.

sergiotapia 7y ago

Awesome grey goo story: https://qntm.org/gorge https://qntm.org/gorge also by the same author: https://qntm.org/responsibility https://qntm.org/responsibility

rtkwe 7y ago
At least the "Responsibility" problem is relatively easy to solve, use the manipulator to move and provide power to the computer. Since they're able to manifest things into the universe they can probably just provide the appropriate voltage at the end of the cables going to the computer and similarly provide any other needs like cooling (this spot is 0.1K or whatever temperature the device needs).

Casper88 7y ago

"out-of-control self-replicating machines that consume all biomass on Earth while building more of themselves" Sounds a lot like humans...

gamesbrainiac 7y ago

There is also a RTS game for those interested: https://store.steampowered.com/app/290790/Grey_Goo/ https://store.steampowered.com/app/290790/Grey_Goo/

Filligree 7y ago
A mediocre game, most notable for casting humanity as the 'super-advanced ancestral race'. It unfortunately lacked any interesting grey goo-related mechanics, even when playing as the goo.
oefrha 7y ago
As a huge fan of Starcraft, Warcraft and C&C franchises I was pretty excited when it was announced (as the classical RTS genre was clearly on life support if not already dead at that point), but frankly it turned out to be a terrible RTS that’s not worth anyone’s time.

ngvrnd 7y ago

While I agree that the grey goo sensationalism is wrong, it would also be wrong to throw the baby out with the bathwater. First admit that single-celled life is really just very very advanced self-reproducing nano-machinery, or else explain why it isn't. There is some risk here, just not of the sensationalized variety.

mabbo 7y ago

Tiny machines that extract energy and material from their environment in order to replicate themselves... isn't that bacteria? Life? Isn't that all around us already? Aren't we that? The only way I can imagine gray goo being a real threat is if we can design such a machine that is more efficient and resilient at extracting energy and matter into copies of itself better than 4 billion years of evolution has made the existing life on Earth. And while, yes, we are often able to do better than life at certain tasks, I have a hard time believing on a large scale of time and space we can win that arm wrestle. Life is optimized in every direction and has tried most of the tricks. It's hard to beat.

gallerdude 7y ago
Life is really good at finding a local maximum, but not a global maximum. Cheetah's were evolved to be really fast, but they're still slower than a motorcycle.
- cwp 7y ago
  Cheetahs evolved to chase down prey. They are much better at that than a motorcycle. (Or even a person on a motorcycle!)
- kleer001 7y ago
  Let me know when motorcycles can reproduce. Then I'll be scared.
- mabbo 7y ago
  > Cheetah's were evolved to be really fast, but they're still slower than a motorcycle A good kick can permanently disable a motorcycle such that it can no longer move faster than a cheetah. Less so for cheetahs- they can heal from wounds. A cheetah is also carrying with it all the needed equipment to turn many forms of raw matter (meat) into fuel to power a cheetah. And many cheetahs carry with them a fully functional cheetah factory. My point is that humans are great at optimizing one dimension, but to build something that is better optimized in enough dimensions to outdo life is very unlikely.
- 7y ago

Nasrudith 7y ago

To be an utter smartass gray goo long predates us, we call them microbes. Really Grey goo is a conceptual repeat of bad scientific models like Ice 9. Complete with bad models of chemistry. In this case they forget that the molecular scale is not the same as macroscopic, often assuming molecules are like macroscopic materials that stay still until they act instead of reacting to conditions. Assuming that a self replicating hydrocarbon consumer could break down anything carbon based would be like worrying that the oil spill will start ripping carbon from the air and hydrogen from water to make more oil and create a powder keg world world without any water. Plus addition forgetting the constraints other than raw resources like dissipation, surface area, and power supply.

rafaelvasco 7y ago

Makes me think about the creation of everything: All that exists in Earth now, and probably in the entire Universe started as a blob of proto matter, the core of everything, which by still mostly unknown mechanisms, specialized and replicated itself into every different element that forms us, animals, plants, minerals, and everything else; Interesting thought;

xorand 7y ago

A scenario more interesting than boundless self-replication is Ackermann goo [0], [1]. Grey goo starts with a molecular machine able to replicate itself. You get exponentially more copies, hence goo. Imagine that we could build molecules like programs which execute themselves via chemical interactions with the environment. Then, for example, a Y combinator machine would appear as a linearly growing string [2]. No danger here. Take Ackermann(4,4) now. This is vastly more complex than a goo made of lots of small dumb copies. [0] https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#58 https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#58 [1] https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#59 https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#59 [2] https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#259 https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#259

carapace 7y ago
Thanks for the nightmares! :-)
- xorand 7y ago
  :) Probably is a sort of revenge on people more interested in semantics than geometry.

bionhoward 7y ago

We are the gray goo

nnq 7y ago

DON't disconsider this nightmare scenario too much - While engineering (as in classically designing, prototyping etc.) such a grey goo might be almost impossibly-hard because of chemical energetic constraint and the obvious fact that 3bn years of evolution were not enough to bring about such effective "grey goo" that could "consume the planet", there are some chilling new developments: We're starting to be good at (1) using machine learning to "learn" designs for components much faster than naive-genetical-algorithms (aka "evolution"), and this will only get better as ML improves, and (2) we're getting better and better at simulating-in-software biological-like processes (and quantum computing will help with this). So we are pretty much in shape to vaaaaaastly outpower 3bn years of evolution. A virtual + physical nanobots-evolution-gym where AI agents evolve and compete at creating better and better self-replicating nano-machines will give you the nightmare scenario easily... Basically anything related to the combo of "ML + nanotech" should be carefully watched and monitored! (And if you're willing to not start from scratch but instead use existing bio-building-blocks like viruses and bacteria, and don't have as high goals as "consuming all matter on earth" and instead you settle for "most multi-cellular living matter" then technically we already have the capabilities. You probably know what I mean.)

alpineidyll3 7y ago

How the eff did this make the YC frontpage?

nurettin 7y ago
It was submitted 1 month ago and 7 months ago with no replies or points. This time, as soon as it was submitted, people started commenting and upvoting.

daveslash 7y ago

Sounds similar to replicators in the TV show "Startgate SG-1"

ben_w 7y ago
This concept was probably what inspired that plot arc.

xwkd 7y ago

Sure, it's unlikely given what we know about energy, but consider it a thought experiment about the propagation of externalities. What other seemingly inconsequential machinations create systemic ripple effects? What forest are we missing for the trees?

qubex 7y ago

Is this a Fermi Paradox explanation?

toddh 7y ago

In The Issues We Face at the Nano Scale (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEjx48z8Lzs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEjx48z8Lzs) the Gray Goo threat is debunked. Nanomachines need a really controlled environment to live. They need the right PH, salt, and temperature. Change any parameters and nanomachines won't work. World saved.

pedro1976 7y ago

A gray goo consuming all carbon based structures that replicates at the same time, would be based on carbon too. Therefore they would eat themselves.

Miniso 7y ago

It's beyond my understanding..

carapace 7y ago

FWIW, the oceans are "Blue" Goo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_bacteriophage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_bacteriophage > Marine viruses, although microscopic and essentially unnoticed by scientists until recently, are the most abundant and diverse biological entities in the ocean. Viruses have an estimated abundance of 10^30 in the ocean... Ten to the thirtieth power. 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

onceUponADime 7y ago

It makes for great horror story material. I once worked on a grey goo enemy in a game. The idea, was to have the grey goo capture there victims, storing them as data. Reviving them from time to time for seconds, to prevent degradation.. where did i keep the file, ah here: <Musician> .. You will grow tired, you must rest, you can not be eternally creative, and once you rest- you will be rescued like the rest of them. <Lead Developer> ... DOMUS BACKDOOR BASILISK HIJACK COGNAC DAFOODILL ANNA: FREEZE PROGRAM ... <CULT LEADER> .. Rapture is upon us, the Silver tentacles of gods justice shall wrap themselves around us. (Squeaks) .. And inside us, to be part of the divine, oh, this is cold and hurts.. <Scientists> .. Congratulations, the hacking proof system you where so proud of- it works.. .. you dont get it, we need Aeons of computationpower in a day to break the encryption and restore the stored people- .. Gentlemen, lets focus on the good news- which is that the run-away-assembler, spares plants and lower animals .. marathon of stupidity- to avoid it going exponential, let it tap geothermal- and now we cant cut it off.. .. Listen Domus, all humans are mortal. Cancer, this sort of runaway deadly exponential growth is what makes us human. One has to let go off the old, to embrace the new. You cant just take the philosophy department for a walk.. .. Radiation free Room. No need to put as in storage, this is a rad-free room. And we are living from saline solution. What do you mean- Radon & Radicals? .. As a medical authority, i declare radiation healthy- it trains the repair-functionality of DNA. No evolution without radiation. Come on, you dumb machine- <Soldier> .. Fallback to the AGrav, watch your flanks- keep firing, do not touch the walls or floor ... <SinglePerson> .. The sun, with every flicker - its so much bigger. Like a million years gone by on the fly.. ..(paranoid) they are after me, they are in the walls, in the ceeling, but they will not get me- the whispering voices, talking about - SUICIDE PREVENTION MODE.. .. the water beneath the bridge is incredible clear today.. .. (on toilett/reading newspaper) Whatever it is it can wait for another minute. And now you flood the floor-.. .. We greet you oh mighty one, we have been praying for the rapture ever since. We want to offer support cleansing the world of sinners.. .. I demand my conciousness continue while in storage. Aaaaahhh.... <Couple> .. I love you- I love you too.. .. Kids close your eyes, we love you very much- everything will be all right! <ZeroDay Pensioneers> .. didnt even smoke. And now cancer, from natural radiation. One mangled protein- one flipped bit- and BAM, your dead old man walking. Domus are you even listening (House) Yes, i am. I will miss you, you are a vital part .. <Kid on Scooter> .. Mum? Dad? .. Its soo cold .. 10 .. 11 .. Im coming now. You better hide! <Mum in Kitchen> .. Honey is that you? I have a surprise for you- .. .. So that was your life Joan, really outstanding, mum was right, up to no good.. .. 3 Martinis and then even the Facility Managment System gets too you.. <Major> ..-Yes, one ticket offworld - wait make that five. What do you mean - the bank is gone. I can see it walking towards the space port <Military> ..- it WHAT, it ate the airbase? Impossible, im at the airbase-.. .. Day 512 after the Zero-Goo. Our Submarine will surface today for air. Beating will continue till moral improves.. .. So the nuclear option is off limits, due to the population still being encoded in the Goo? .. <Couple TV> ..<she>You think, the Goo is real? <he> Nah, its the usual fear mongering. If it where real, there would be panic.. .. what a lovely quite evening, not a sound in the whole city.. .. what a trip dude, what a trip.. the wall is melting and the floor is mercury.. .. have you seen the smiths. When her house grew those veins - that bitch was furious.. <Refugees> .. Yes its cold here, very cold, but the freezing keeps it at bay. Just check your cloths for silver flakes and you will be fine.. .. I tell you we need to dig deeper. This is no ore above us- these are plague roots.. .. So no thermal footprint, no CO2, no electronics and constant camouflage - and maybe, just maybe .. .. Smoke, i didnt put the fire out. If i can see it, it can see it. Stupid, stupid, stupid!.. .. I will never drink again, i swear by St.Aloisius, that was the last drop... .. Hello, i woke up in a hospital, everyone was gone. Is this the rapture or the Singularity? I can hear you moving, you know-.. <Astronaut> -.. so Yuri i said to myself, what choice do you got. Your the last, your sick and non-sanes, why become a space-mummy - just go down and at least get buried with the others. So Yuri, i said, at least make a memorial.. <Alien Astronaut> .. so for my clan, i claim this ancient world, for the Empire. The flag, its dragged intot the - ground, what the hell-.. .. the world was infested and even orbital bombardment did not reduce the plague. We are lucky to be alive and uncontaminated. Imagine if it would have infected the Quadrant Hub-.. <Primate> .. So Uluth, banging rock spear, when silver god tells her about long sleep.. <Domus 4.0 Regressive Behaviour> .. Housekeeping: How can the silversurfer-maid help you?.. .. Due to new cables being run behind the wall- temporary discomfort by noises may occur between 0.00 and 24.00 pm.. .. Who can bring the package, thats long past overdue, who can put into your flat a silent miracle or two- the House-OS can, because its using nanos for this jam. .. And this is the flat- its roomy, sunny, city-core, the layout is personalized to your liking. .. If you are satisfied with the service, why dont you invite all your friends to try Domus 4.0 .. Citizen your service-debt now amounts to 4 Trillion, 782.200.103.823 Dollars before taxes. .. The TOS clearly defines that the House is responsible for the safety and well being of its inhabitants. .. the trial period for House 4.0 ended several millenias ago. If you want to use the full Version, please register.. .. Elevators are currently out of service due to unused building restructuring.. .. This Condo is going to be so fly. Have you thought about putting in a diamondsheet between the kitchen and the living room?.. .. Good day Citizen: This agent is a local branch of the Domus 4.0 self-modification,repair and extension System. My prime directive is to keep you happy and healthy. After running some diagnostics on the environment, the system has determined that the current world is unsuitable for biologic beings due to radioactive hazards, such as natural radiation, pulsar and stellar radiation - ranging from x-rays to uv-light. To protect the citizens from further harm, all citizens will be mapped, dissolved and stored, until a harmless environment can be guaranteed. To avoid a memory decay, it is unfortunately necessary to partially reconstitute the citizens all 8192 years, 512 months, 256 days and 128 hours for several seconds and disassemble them again. For your own safety you will be disassembled and stored. The process is not pain-free, but due to a short-term memory wipe, no traumata does ensue. Please relax your extremities and enjoy some light jazz music, while being rescued. Do not Panic! Help is here, Safety only a few years away. ..

rubyn00bie 7y ago

Sounds like a really boring, less threatening, version of of a strange quark. It seems like it would be more likely they'd consume themselves if they're able to consume matter so indiscriminately... The amount of matter inside two or three of them waiting to be digested would be game for any of the other little shits to devour. It also can be see in an episode of Futurama where Bender multiplies turning all the liquid on earth into booze, and then consuming it all. Which is probably about as close to real as this idea will ever be...

8bitsrule 7y ago

I've seen a comic story in which Gyro Gearloose invents a machine which he puts on an island. He turns it on and is distracted. On return, much of the island has been turned into ice cream (frappe, I think). So this concept goes back a ways.