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This time it is different.^{tm} More seriously, we are almost about to i) Generate a good book using a short intro. ii) Generate a meaningful video using a f

This time it is different.^{tm} More seriously, we are almost about to i) Generate a good book using a short intro. ii) Generate a meaningful video using a few photos and a basic text scenario. Which makes us closer to generate movies on demand (say in 2025) and then good luck to people claiming that the current progress in AI is a bubble.

monocasa 7y ago
I mean, even if we were to get nothing else out of the current AI boom, it'd e hard to call it a bubble as much as the 80s crash.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
azinman2 7y ago
We’re no where near a “good book” (we can’t even do a good 3 paragraphs reliably), nor a “meaningful video.” You’re confusing a 1000 monkeys (transformers) with 1 human intelligence (AGI). That giant leap hasn’t been met.
- account73466 7y ago
  I guess you are not from the field. Edit: I was right, he is an engineer and not a researcher who is active in the field.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - dang 7y ago
    Please don't make personal dismissals. That's not in the spirit of this site, and we already had to ask you about this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21615955 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21615955. Instead, if you know more, share some of what you know. Then we all can learn something. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - azinman2 7y ago
      Especially since I do have a background in AI and machine learning.
      - account73466 7y ago
        Your publications track didn't suggest it. Edit: you flag me while I am stating that his publications are not ML/AI, go and check it yourself.
        username90 7y ago
        Care to link the papers that makes you so sure that we will soon be able to generate whole coherent books? As far as we know you could just be an enthusiastic college student who knows nothing.
    - account73466 7y ago
      He started with "You’re confusing" which is pretty personal. He said "We’re no where near" which is fine if he is an engineer, he is probably "no where near" in contrast to people doing research in that field. I stated the obvious, he is not active in the field.
      - dang 7y ago
        "You're confusing X with Y" uses a personal pronoun but I don't think I'd call it a personal attack—it's a common phrase in spoken English. Maybe "That's confusing X with Y" would be a modicum more polite, but only a modicum. Please stop these low-information, bilious comments now. It's not contributing positively to sniff at others' lack of credentials and tout yourself. Experts are welcome here if they want to share their expertise, but just being dismissive isn't a good thing for any HN user to do, expert or no.
        account73466 7y ago
        >> "You're confusing X with Y" uses a personal pronoun but I don't think I'd call it a personal attack "You're confusing X with Y" suggests that its author is an expert who can judge who is right and who is wrong. I stated that I don't think that the author is an expert from the field. After checking his publications, I found that indeed there is no evidence that he is an expert. It doesn't prove that I am an expert but I didn't claim that he is confused about something, he did it about me (see, "but just being dismissive isn't a good thing"). I don't think there was a place to say "low-information, bilious comments now". Edit: you disagree, I see it. My comment is not a top banner on HN so that it disturbs people in any way. You disagree and you flag it as inappropriate.
- deleted 7y ago
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- AlexCoventry 7y ago
  Have you seen the tables in Appendix E (starts p. 16) of the Transformer-XL paper? I think they're pretty good. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860.pdf
  - account73466 7y ago
    Glad to find they used something from my research. Don't want to disclose more, was flagged too much.
  - username90 7y ago
    Quote from that paper: > The Battle of Austerlitz was the decisive French victory against Napoleon It didn't even catch that Napoleon was the leader of the French as described in the source snippet. And this was when it just generated text of similar size as the input. Based on just that paper I highly doubt that this method will generalize to creating entire books.
    - account73466 7y ago
      "he was still in conflict with Emperor Napoleon, the French Republic’s king"
      - username90 7y ago
        My point was that the text lacked coherence, that quote only makes it worse. If it can't even keep coherence for a single page how would it manage for a hundred?
        account73466 7y ago
        by improving metrics over time see, e.g., https://gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard/ https://gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard/
        account73466 7y ago
mamp 7y ago
AI winters are caused because people keep thinking the effort required to achieve some improvement is linear instead of exponential.

monocasa 7y ago

I mean, even if we were to get nothing else out of the current AI boom, it'd e hard to call it a bubble as much as the 80s crash.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

azinman2 7y ago

We’re no where near a “good book” (we can’t even do a good 3 paragraphs reliably), nor a “meaningful video.” You’re confusing a 1000 monkeys (transformers) with 1 human intelligence (AGI). That giant leap hasn’t been met.

account73466 7y ago
I guess you are not from the field. Edit: I was right, he is an engineer and not a researcher who is active in the field.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- dang 7y ago
  Please don't make personal dismissals. That's not in the spirit of this site, and we already had to ask you about this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21615955 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21615955. Instead, if you know more, share some of what you know. Then we all can learn something. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - azinman2 7y ago
    Especially since I do have a background in AI and machine learning.
    - account73466 7y ago
      Your publications track didn't suggest it. Edit: you flag me while I am stating that his publications are not ML/AI, go and check it yourself.
      - username90 7y ago
        Care to link the papers that makes you so sure that we will soon be able to generate whole coherent books? As far as we know you could just be an enthusiastic college student who knows nothing.
  - account73466 7y ago
    He started with "You’re confusing" which is pretty personal. He said "We’re no where near" which is fine if he is an engineer, he is probably "no where near" in contrast to people doing research in that field. I stated the obvious, he is not active in the field.
    - dang 7y ago
      "You're confusing X with Y" uses a personal pronoun but I don't think I'd call it a personal attack—it's a common phrase in spoken English. Maybe "That's confusing X with Y" would be a modicum more polite, but only a modicum. Please stop these low-information, bilious comments now. It's not contributing positively to sniff at others' lack of credentials and tout yourself. Experts are welcome here if they want to share their expertise, but just being dismissive isn't a good thing for any HN user to do, expert or no.
      - account73466 7y ago
        >> "You're confusing X with Y" uses a personal pronoun but I don't think I'd call it a personal attack "You're confusing X with Y" suggests that its author is an expert who can judge who is right and who is wrong. I stated that I don't think that the author is an expert from the field. After checking his publications, I found that indeed there is no evidence that he is an expert. It doesn't prove that I am an expert but I didn't claim that he is confused about something, he did it about me (see, "but just being dismissive isn't a good thing"). I don't think there was a place to say "low-information, bilious comments now". Edit: you disagree, I see it. My comment is not a top banner on HN so that it disturbs people in any way. You disagree and you flag it as inappropriate.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
AlexCoventry 7y ago
Have you seen the tables in Appendix E (starts p. 16) of the Transformer-XL paper? I think they're pretty good. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860.pdf
- account73466 7y ago
  Glad to find they used something from my research. Don't want to disclose more, was flagged too much.
- username90 7y ago
  Quote from that paper: > The Battle of Austerlitz was the decisive French victory against Napoleon It didn't even catch that Napoleon was the leader of the French as described in the source snippet. And this was when it just generated text of similar size as the input. Based on just that paper I highly doubt that this method will generalize to creating entire books.
  - account73466 7y ago
    "he was still in conflict with Emperor Napoleon, the French Republic’s king"
    - username90 7y ago
      My point was that the text lacked coherence, that quote only makes it worse. If it can't even keep coherence for a single page how would it manage for a hundred?
      - account73466 7y ago
        by improving metrics over time see, e.g., https://gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard/ https://gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard/
        account73466 7y ago

mamp 7y ago

AI winters are caused because people keep thinking the effort required to achieve some improvement is linear instead of exponential.