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Hey, I posted the notebook by the OP. Thank you for your feedback! You're correct in saying that FB Prophet is for forecasting time series with strong seasonal
by KyleOS 7y ago
Hey, I posted the notebook by the OP. Thank you for your feedback! You're correct in saying that FB Prophet is for forecasting time series with strong seasonal effects. FB Prophet was the model used in the original script I found & the main point here was simply to make the notebook more readable on kyso, which has quite a few non-technical readers. I've worked a lot with ARIMAs before for financial/economic data and I like the idea of comparing the results between the two, and maybe even extend the time frame. So 1. I think that'll be my next project and 2. if your project is public I'd love to give it a read when published.
- jerednel 7y agoDid you try running the forecast with a log ceiling to control for the trajectory a bit? Or would that only be a concern of yours if you had to forecast past a couple of years? I find that when I use Prophet to forecast down to the day I end up creating initial forecasts with heavy log ceilings to prevent unreasonable estimates of the future and then end up removing the ceiling once enough history is established to provide a resaonable baseline.
- hodder 7y agoAh okay. Great work with plotly on visualization then. This is a great skill to have and something I need to work on. I’ve added Kyso to my favorite list. I look forward to your future posts. I will likely publish something on my project using stale data given I work in a trading environment. The theory should be the same though. One of these days I’d like to actually write a solid white paper level research study and get published! One can dream!