7 ms·

Trudeau faces election in a year, while the US midterms are weeks away. Cant he just wait it out ? I guess if the blue wave doesn't pane out it might actually

Trudeau faces election in a year, while the US midterms are weeks away. Cant he just wait it out ? I guess if the blue wave doesn't pane out it might actually be better for Trudeau to accept NAFTA before then.

endorphone 8y ago
Trudeau doesn't need the midterms -- Republicans in both houses are strongly on the "Canadian" side, as are the Democrats. Which is why Trump is threatening congress. Trump's presidency is rapidly unraveling. His outsized ego and inability to listen to reason has led to this remarkable situation where he is "playing tough" with one of the few nations that the US has a trade balance/surplus. It is insanity. He can neither sign a new trade agreement, or cancel an existing one, without congress.
- api 8y ago
  Meanwhile his selective tariffs on raw materials have created a greater incentive to offshore the whole pipeline. Populism seems to always be a total disaster whether it is "right" or "left."
- TomMckenny 8y ago
  >Trump's presidency is rapidly unraveling In normal US history this would very much be the case. But the question is: are we still on the normal US path or are now following the Erdogan / Orban / Duda / Putin / Maduro trajectory.
  - labster 8y ago
    Mr. Trump's personal attorney and former National Security Advisor both plead guilty to crimes, and his campaign manager was convicted on 8 counts. I don't think we're on either path of the dilemma you proposed.
    - jacquesm 8y ago
      I hope you are right but I will still be feeling a lot better when that's all nailed down in 2020 and we hopefully can return to normality.
      - claydavisss 8y ago
        I see Trump's re-election as a done deal at this point (no, I did not vote for him) No potential Democrat has been groomed to fight him and it really looks like they will in fact let Hillary try again. Trump has been tough on China which most Americans favor. Trump has delivered a tax cut most Americans won't want to roll back. Trump has gotten North Korea off the front burner. So have other Presidents like Obama and Clinton....which is good because Americans don't really want to care about North Korea. Trump has been President during a strong economy for housing, stocks and corporate profits. Trump is being tough on immigration which continually polls high with the public...I have never seen a poll conclude Americans want lax immigration laws, ever. Sorry most Americans don't care about the detention stuff either. Immigration continues to confuse Democrats - only Bernie seems to realize a strong social safety net and open borders are mutually exclusive. Downvote away, the next election will blindside you all like the last. Only hope for Democrats is a market collapse.
        labster 8y ago
        As an low-ranking official in the Democratic Party, I'm happy to inform you that literally no one in the party is talking about Hillary Clinton running again.
    - pjc50 8y ago
      However, there's nothing stopping the president or his successor from pardoning them, like Oliver North.
- claydavisss 8y ago
  Trump is just sabre rattling but arguably this has been effective with China, and will probably motivate Canada to permit changes as well. Trudeau doesn't have much choice, the Canadian economy basically doesn't exist without US trade. No Canada isn't going to join the EU or anything like that, most of the Canadian economy is less than 100 miles from the border. The stuff that is further away like the tar sands is also deeply integrated with the US. NAFTA has basically turned Canada into a US state economically. Note that the Berniecrats have long lobbied for better trade deals that emphasize protections for US workers...it will be hard for left Democrats to oppose Trump with a free-trade agenda. Mostly the Berniecrats have been silent because Trump is the first President in thirty years to rethink free trade. Canada should be looking further south for criticism...it is Mexico where jobs like auto manufacturing will end up...Canada cannot compete with Mexico. When NAFTA was written, Mexico was not yet a realistic manufacturing center so Canada had little to worry about
  - toast0 8y ago
    I think all the tarrifs (and retaliatory tarrifs and another round of that) is more than sabre rattling.
    - claydavisss 8y ago
      No they will all be rolled back, but the threat will be effective
  - endorphone 8y ago
    "Trump is just sabre rattling but arguably this has been effective with China" It accomplished absolutely nothing with China, while cementing them as the Eastern world power (and coming global world power). It has been profoundly Pyrrhic, like virtually all of Trump's "deals". "the Canadian economy basically doesn't exist without US trade" Canada's economy is absolutely integrated with the US, courtesy of trade agreements going back decades. A lot of that trade is reciprocal -- e.g. Alberta sends natural gas to the US, and Ontario imports natural gas from the US. But to say it doesn't exist without US trade is simply ridiculous. One quarter of Canada's GDP is tied up in trade, a large portion of that involved with necessary minerals and raw goods, which will always have a market. Whether it's the US because it's convenient, or another country, it will be sold. If all US trade stopped, Canada will be absolutely fine. There will be disruption, but it would almost certainly be beneficial in the long run. Your last paragraph is just completely wrong. Mexico -- and the whole premise of NAFTA -- was to allow North America as a whole to compete better with Asia. Indeed, Trump's boasts about the trade agreements with Mexico are uproarious because at best they seriously hobble North American car makers against much cheaper foreign makers.
- liftbigweights 8y ago
  > Trudeau doesn't need the midterms -- Republicans in both houses are strongly on the "Canadian" side, as are the Democrats. There are plenty of republicans and democrats who are against canada. Especially in the important midwest region ( which won Trump the election ). Bernie Sanders was popular for being anti-NAFTA. I wouldn't confuse anti-trumpism with pro-canadianism. You can be against trump and canada. > His outsized ego and inability to listen to reason has led to this remarkable situation where he is "playing tough" with one of the few nations that the US has a trade balance/surplus. This is simply not true. We have had a trade deficit with canada for decades. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c1220.html https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c1220.html If we had a trade surplus with canada, don't you think it would be canada demanding changes to the trade deal? > Trump's presidency is rapidly unraveling. If that was the case, why did mexico just agree to a trade deal with Trump? Why did south korea agree to a trade deal with Trump a few months ago? > He can neither sign a new trade agreement, or cancel an existing one, without congress. Sure. But he has presidential powers that could prove very punitive for canada. Our economy is 8X larger than canada and mexico combined. The US economy accounts for nearly 90% of NAFTA. Instead of being emotionally led by cable news, look at the data.
  - endorphone 8y ago
    >This is simply not true. We have had a trade deficit with canada for decades. A goods trade deficit, almost entirely courtesy of oil imports (strangely no oil tariffs have been announced, though...). When you add services it has been a wash to a US surplus for many years. The dairy thing is simply incredible -- the US sells 3x more dairy to Canada than the reverse, and that is the whole point of supply management (that it only produces enough for domestic demand). Somehow the clueless hordes have been raised into a mob by some guy talking about tariffs in a market that they already win. And if Canada drops supply management, the US would need to drop the massive agricultural subsidies and we know there is zero chance of that. >Bernie Sanders was popular for being anti-NAFTA. Virtually the entirety of anti-NAFTA sentiment was anti-Mexico sentiment. It's actually a bit amazing how Trump's supporters have been swayed into being anti-Canadian. It's remarkable. Mexico will still have a $100B surplus, China a $500B surplus, but rah rah rah something about dairy. Further, I said the Canadian side in quotes -- they're aren't pro-Canada, they're pro good relationships, fair trade, not trying to win some cheap concession now for personal power, realize that trade is not zero-sum, etc. In any rational analysis, Trump's behavior is boorish, self-destructive, profoundly ignorant and motivated entirely by ego and not the best actions for the US. >If that was the case, why did mexico just agree to a trade deal with Trump? How is that a counter-point? But Mexico "agreed" because they got almost everything they wanted out of it. Trump, and his sad jealousy of Trudeau, made him refocus on Canada, and Mexico (with a closing on $100B trade surplus) got to laugh to the bank. Of course they'd sign that.

endorphone 8y ago

Trudeau doesn't need the midterms -- Republicans in both houses are strongly on the "Canadian" side, as are the Democrats. Which is why Trump is threatening congress. Trump's presidency is rapidly unraveling. His outsized ego and inability to listen to reason has led to this remarkable situation where he is "playing tough" with one of the few nations that the US has a trade balance/surplus. It is insanity. He can neither sign a new trade agreement, or cancel an existing one, without congress.

api 8y ago
Meanwhile his selective tariffs on raw materials have created a greater incentive to offshore the whole pipeline. Populism seems to always be a total disaster whether it is "right" or "left."
TomMckenny 8y ago
>Trump's presidency is rapidly unraveling In normal US history this would very much be the case. But the question is: are we still on the normal US path or are now following the Erdogan / Orban / Duda / Putin / Maduro trajectory.
- labster 8y ago
  Mr. Trump's personal attorney and former National Security Advisor both plead guilty to crimes, and his campaign manager was convicted on 8 counts. I don't think we're on either path of the dilemma you proposed.
  - jacquesm 8y ago
    I hope you are right but I will still be feeling a lot better when that's all nailed down in 2020 and we hopefully can return to normality.
    - claydavisss 8y ago
      I see Trump's re-election as a done deal at this point (no, I did not vote for him) No potential Democrat has been groomed to fight him and it really looks like they will in fact let Hillary try again. Trump has been tough on China which most Americans favor. Trump has delivered a tax cut most Americans won't want to roll back. Trump has gotten North Korea off the front burner. So have other Presidents like Obama and Clinton....which is good because Americans don't really want to care about North Korea. Trump has been President during a strong economy for housing, stocks and corporate profits. Trump is being tough on immigration which continually polls high with the public...I have never seen a poll conclude Americans want lax immigration laws, ever. Sorry most Americans don't care about the detention stuff either. Immigration continues to confuse Democrats - only Bernie seems to realize a strong social safety net and open borders are mutually exclusive. Downvote away, the next election will blindside you all like the last. Only hope for Democrats is a market collapse.
      - labster 8y ago
        As an low-ranking official in the Democratic Party, I'm happy to inform you that literally no one in the party is talking about Hillary Clinton running again.
  - pjc50 8y ago
    However, there's nothing stopping the president or his successor from pardoning them, like Oliver North.
claydavisss 8y ago
Trump is just sabre rattling but arguably this has been effective with China, and will probably motivate Canada to permit changes as well. Trudeau doesn't have much choice, the Canadian economy basically doesn't exist without US trade. No Canada isn't going to join the EU or anything like that, most of the Canadian economy is less than 100 miles from the border. The stuff that is further away like the tar sands is also deeply integrated with the US. NAFTA has basically turned Canada into a US state economically. Note that the Berniecrats have long lobbied for better trade deals that emphasize protections for US workers...it will be hard for left Democrats to oppose Trump with a free-trade agenda. Mostly the Berniecrats have been silent because Trump is the first President in thirty years to rethink free trade. Canada should be looking further south for criticism...it is Mexico where jobs like auto manufacturing will end up...Canada cannot compete with Mexico. When NAFTA was written, Mexico was not yet a realistic manufacturing center so Canada had little to worry about
- toast0 8y ago
  I think all the tarrifs (and retaliatory tarrifs and another round of that) is more than sabre rattling.
  - claydavisss 8y ago
    No they will all be rolled back, but the threat will be effective
- endorphone 8y ago
  "Trump is just sabre rattling but arguably this has been effective with China" It accomplished absolutely nothing with China, while cementing them as the Eastern world power (and coming global world power). It has been profoundly Pyrrhic, like virtually all of Trump's "deals". "the Canadian economy basically doesn't exist without US trade" Canada's economy is absolutely integrated with the US, courtesy of trade agreements going back decades. A lot of that trade is reciprocal -- e.g. Alberta sends natural gas to the US, and Ontario imports natural gas from the US. But to say it doesn't exist without US trade is simply ridiculous. One quarter of Canada's GDP is tied up in trade, a large portion of that involved with necessary minerals and raw goods, which will always have a market. Whether it's the US because it's convenient, or another country, it will be sold. If all US trade stopped, Canada will be absolutely fine. There will be disruption, but it would almost certainly be beneficial in the long run. Your last paragraph is just completely wrong. Mexico -- and the whole premise of NAFTA -- was to allow North America as a whole to compete better with Asia. Indeed, Trump's boasts about the trade agreements with Mexico are uproarious because at best they seriously hobble North American car makers against much cheaper foreign makers.
liftbigweights 8y ago
> Trudeau doesn't need the midterms -- Republicans in both houses are strongly on the "Canadian" side, as are the Democrats. There are plenty of republicans and democrats who are against canada. Especially in the important midwest region ( which won Trump the election ). Bernie Sanders was popular for being anti-NAFTA. I wouldn't confuse anti-trumpism with pro-canadianism. You can be against trump and canada. > His outsized ego and inability to listen to reason has led to this remarkable situation where he is "playing tough" with one of the few nations that the US has a trade balance/surplus. This is simply not true. We have had a trade deficit with canada for decades. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c1220.html https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c1220.html If we had a trade surplus with canada, don't you think it would be canada demanding changes to the trade deal? > Trump's presidency is rapidly unraveling. If that was the case, why did mexico just agree to a trade deal with Trump? Why did south korea agree to a trade deal with Trump a few months ago? > He can neither sign a new trade agreement, or cancel an existing one, without congress. Sure. But he has presidential powers that could prove very punitive for canada. Our economy is 8X larger than canada and mexico combined. The US economy accounts for nearly 90% of NAFTA. Instead of being emotionally led by cable news, look at the data.
- endorphone 8y ago
  >This is simply not true. We have had a trade deficit with canada for decades. A goods trade deficit, almost entirely courtesy of oil imports (strangely no oil tariffs have been announced, though...). When you add services it has been a wash to a US surplus for many years. The dairy thing is simply incredible -- the US sells 3x more dairy to Canada than the reverse, and that is the whole point of supply management (that it only produces enough for domestic demand). Somehow the clueless hordes have been raised into a mob by some guy talking about tariffs in a market that they already win. And if Canada drops supply management, the US would need to drop the massive agricultural subsidies and we know there is zero chance of that. >Bernie Sanders was popular for being anti-NAFTA. Virtually the entirety of anti-NAFTA sentiment was anti-Mexico sentiment. It's actually a bit amazing how Trump's supporters have been swayed into being anti-Canadian. It's remarkable. Mexico will still have a $100B surplus, China a $500B surplus, but rah rah rah something about dairy. Further, I said the Canadian side in quotes -- they're aren't pro-Canada, they're pro good relationships, fair trade, not trying to win some cheap concession now for personal power, realize that trade is not zero-sum, etc. In any rational analysis, Trump's behavior is boorish, self-destructive, profoundly ignorant and motivated entirely by ego and not the best actions for the US. >If that was the case, why did mexico just agree to a trade deal with Trump? How is that a counter-point? But Mexico "agreed" because they got almost everything they wanted out of it. Trump, and his sad jealousy of Trudeau, made him refocus on Canada, and Mexico (with a closing on $100B trade surplus) got to laugh to the bank. Of course they'd sign that.