7 ms·

Why? Houston was been flooded several times before. Particularly in 1929 and 1935 when the county finally decided to form a flood control agency. https://en.

Why? Houston was been flooded several times before. Particularly in 1929 and 1935 when the county finally decided to form a flood control agency. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harris_County_Flood_Control_District https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harris_County_Flood_Control_... Climate change is real, but if every time we get bad weather you call it that it’s a little like crying wolf.

zdragnar 9y ago
Not only that, but wasn't that hurricane demonstrated to have formed over waters that were at normal temperature levels? If anything, that sort of comment actively hurts the cause.
- yardie 9y ago
  Even in its natural state the Gulf is an extremely warm body of water. A storm that enters it immediately Hulks up. We’ve normally relied on the Gulfstream (goes North) and Jetstream (goes East) to push these storms back out to sea.
todayiamme 9y ago
Except the argument isn't about the frequency of storms nor the occurrence of a severe storm, but the increase in frequency of severe storms. Essentially, if we put more energy into the system, then we shouldn't be surprised if more energy is outputted as a result of the same system. > A sustained upward trend is found between the global proportion of Cat 4–5 hurricanes and ACCI (Fig. 4), balanced by a similar decrease in Cat 1–2 hurricanes. The results are independent of the choice of models to calculate the ACCI as can be seen by comparing Fig. 4a and b. In both cases the ACCI explains 80–85 % of the variance in the smoothed annual hurricane proportions with p < 0.01 (using unsmoothed data). This finding is consistent with the SST-related increases in Cat 4–5 and decreases in Cat 1–2 found by Kishtawal et al. (2012), the relationship of intense hurricanes with SST found by Hoyos et al. (2010), and the Atlantic landfall hurricane changes noted by Grinsted et al. (2012). Diagram: https://static-content.springer.com/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1713-0/MediaObjects/382_2013_1713_Fig4_HTML.gif https://static-content.springer.com/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs0... https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/S00382-013-1713-0 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/S00382-013-1713-0
- ApolloFortyNine 9y ago
  Harvey was the first cat3+ hurricane to hit the US in 12 years. Your comment is already grey, I just wanted you to know why. EDIT: Could I not get downvoted for stating a fact. That'd be great. I guess it was actually only 11 years and 10 months, is that the problem here?
  - todayiamme 9y ago
    And that's pretty pointless, because it is clear that while there is seasonable variation in the frequency of occurrence of storms; the shift in the frequency of intensity is a phenomena that's a global event happening at scale. The global weather system goes through a series of cold and warm cycles, but the mean has been shifting for a while that has had a global shift in the frequencies of different storm strengths being seen around the world; Here's a graph demonstrating this phenomena; https://imgur.com/a/97x7d https://imgur.com/a/97x7d I've taken this from this study; https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Chih_Yuan_Yang/publication/276199781_Measuring_US_Hurricane_Risk_Associated_with_Natural_Climate_Cycle_and_Global_Warming_Effects/links/5559f0a308ae6fd2d82818eb.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Chih_Yuan_Yang/publicat... That arrives at this conclusion, > However, storm frequencies during the current warm phase (since 1995) have also been much higher than during the previous warm phases in the middle of the last century. The difference can no longer be explained by natural fluctuation; rather, this difference must be attributed to global warming. After making this rather thorough argument (reproduced here in its entirety because it is important to pay attention to the nuances of the science); > In addition, for climate variables, recent studies (e.g. Lehmiller et al. 1997; Bove et al. 1998; Maloney and Hartmann 2000; Elsner, Jagger, and Niu 2000; Goldenberg et al. 2001; Landsea 2005; Sutton and Hodson 2005) have attributed Atlantic hurricane activity increases to a natural climate cycle, termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In recent decades, Geo Risks Research has undertaken hurricane frequency analyses that account for the AMO. The AMO index is a detrended (anomaly) measure of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (e.g. Knight et al. 2005) and is believed to be capable of explaining the recently elevated levels of hurricane activity. Because it is a measure of SST anomalies, which are correlated with hurricane activity, the AMO index has been used to predict near-term hurricane activity. Therefore, warm phases in the AMO (positive AMO index) are theorized to lead to higher SSTs and above long-term average hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Conversely, cool phases in the AMO (negative AMO index) are theorized to lead to lower SSTs and below long-term average hurricane activity. > One of the most important recent papers on this topic is the article by Elsner et al. (2008), who consider a time-series model to forecast the average hurricane-season Atlantic SST and then use a linear Poisson regression model to forecast North Atlantic hurricane intensity given the predicted coefficients of the Atlantic SST model. > However, some studies (Knutson and Tuleya 2004; Barnett et al. 2005; Emanuel 2005; Webster et al. 2005, 2006) indicate that global climate change (rather than natural climate cycles) may play the dominant role. In addition, the fourth status report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) highlights the significant link between human-induced global warming and the greater frequency and intensity of unanticipated tropical cyclone events. > Figure 1 clearly shows that the average number of destructive major hurricanes is significantly higher in the warm phases of the AMO than in the cold phases. This finding supports the theory that hurricanes form over warm sea surfaces. However, storm frequencies during the current warm phase (since 1995) have also been much higher than during the previous warm phases in the middle of the last century. The difference can no longer be explained by natural fluctuation; rather, this difference must be attributed to global warming. Based on these U.S. Hurricane Risk Measurement 3 opinions, the modeling of hurricane activity should have the ability to additionally capture the time trend of hurricane activity to illustrate the phenomenon that hurricane activity increases with time because of global warming. Texas isn't the only place on Earth where this phenomena is playing out. And you may downvote me, but that doesn't change the data nor the facts.
an_account 9y ago
Governments are starting to realize that “500 year floods” or “100 year floods” are happening a lot more often than anticipated.
yardie 9y ago
Before flood mitigation was installed Houston rarely flooded. After flood mitigation was installed Houston flooded even less. Now Houston, even with flood mitigation, is flooding. So what has changed?
- amaranth 9y ago
  A lot of what has changed is more development happening. Pavement doesn't absorb water all that well. When the flood mitigation talked about in this article was put in place the area they chose to flood to handle overflow was undeveloped and so was all of the surrounding area.
  - libertyEQ 9y ago
    Check this out:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pervious_concrete https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pervious_concrete "Pervious concrete was first used in the 1800s in Europe as pavement surfacing and load bearing walls.[3] Cost efficiency was the main motive due to a decreased amount of cement.[3] It became popular again in the 1920s for two storey homes in Scotland and England. It became increasingly viable in Europe after WWII due to the scarcity of cement. It did not become as popular in the US until the 1970s"

zdragnar 9y ago

Not only that, but wasn't that hurricane demonstrated to have formed over waters that were at normal temperature levels? If anything, that sort of comment actively hurts the cause.

yardie 9y ago
Even in its natural state the Gulf is an extremely warm body of water. A storm that enters it immediately Hulks up. We’ve normally relied on the Gulfstream (goes North) and Jetstream (goes East) to push these storms back out to sea.

todayiamme 9y ago

Except the argument isn't about the frequency of storms nor the occurrence of a severe storm, but the increase in frequency of severe storms. Essentially, if we put more energy into the system, then we shouldn't be surprised if more energy is outputted as a result of the same system. > A sustained upward trend is found between the global proportion of Cat 4–5 hurricanes and ACCI (Fig. 4), balanced by a similar decrease in Cat 1–2 hurricanes. The results are independent of the choice of models to calculate the ACCI as can be seen by comparing Fig. 4a and b. In both cases the ACCI explains 80–85 % of the variance in the smoothed annual hurricane proportions with p < 0.01 (using unsmoothed data). This finding is consistent with the SST-related increases in Cat 4–5 and decreases in Cat 1–2 found by Kishtawal et al. (2012), the relationship of intense hurricanes with SST found by Hoyos et al. (2010), and the Atlantic landfall hurricane changes noted by Grinsted et al. (2012). Diagram: https://static-content.springer.com/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1713-0/MediaObjects/382_2013_1713_Fig4_HTML.gif https://static-content.springer.com/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs0... https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/S00382-013-1713-0 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/S00382-013-1713-0

ApolloFortyNine 9y ago
Harvey was the first cat3+ hurricane to hit the US in 12 years. Your comment is already grey, I just wanted you to know why. EDIT: Could I not get downvoted for stating a fact. That'd be great. I guess it was actually only 11 years and 10 months, is that the problem here?
- todayiamme 9y ago
  And that's pretty pointless, because it is clear that while there is seasonable variation in the frequency of occurrence of storms; the shift in the frequency of intensity is a phenomena that's a global event happening at scale. The global weather system goes through a series of cold and warm cycles, but the mean has been shifting for a while that has had a global shift in the frequencies of different storm strengths being seen around the world; Here's a graph demonstrating this phenomena; https://imgur.com/a/97x7d https://imgur.com/a/97x7d I've taken this from this study; https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Chih_Yuan_Yang/publication/276199781_Measuring_US_Hurricane_Risk_Associated_with_Natural_Climate_Cycle_and_Global_Warming_Effects/links/5559f0a308ae6fd2d82818eb.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Chih_Yuan_Yang/publicat... That arrives at this conclusion, > However, storm frequencies during the current warm phase (since 1995) have also been much higher than during the previous warm phases in the middle of the last century. The difference can no longer be explained by natural fluctuation; rather, this difference must be attributed to global warming. After making this rather thorough argument (reproduced here in its entirety because it is important to pay attention to the nuances of the science); > In addition, for climate variables, recent studies (e.g. Lehmiller et al. 1997; Bove et al. 1998; Maloney and Hartmann 2000; Elsner, Jagger, and Niu 2000; Goldenberg et al. 2001; Landsea 2005; Sutton and Hodson 2005) have attributed Atlantic hurricane activity increases to a natural climate cycle, termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In recent decades, Geo Risks Research has undertaken hurricane frequency analyses that account for the AMO. The AMO index is a detrended (anomaly) measure of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (e.g. Knight et al. 2005) and is believed to be capable of explaining the recently elevated levels of hurricane activity. Because it is a measure of SST anomalies, which are correlated with hurricane activity, the AMO index has been used to predict near-term hurricane activity. Therefore, warm phases in the AMO (positive AMO index) are theorized to lead to higher SSTs and above long-term average hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Conversely, cool phases in the AMO (negative AMO index) are theorized to lead to lower SSTs and below long-term average hurricane activity. > One of the most important recent papers on this topic is the article by Elsner et al. (2008), who consider a time-series model to forecast the average hurricane-season Atlantic SST and then use a linear Poisson regression model to forecast North Atlantic hurricane intensity given the predicted coefficients of the Atlantic SST model. > However, some studies (Knutson and Tuleya 2004; Barnett et al. 2005; Emanuel 2005; Webster et al. 2005, 2006) indicate that global climate change (rather than natural climate cycles) may play the dominant role. In addition, the fourth status report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) highlights the significant link between human-induced global warming and the greater frequency and intensity of unanticipated tropical cyclone events. > Figure 1 clearly shows that the average number of destructive major hurricanes is significantly higher in the warm phases of the AMO than in the cold phases. This finding supports the theory that hurricanes form over warm sea surfaces. However, storm frequencies during the current warm phase (since 1995) have also been much higher than during the previous warm phases in the middle of the last century. The difference can no longer be explained by natural fluctuation; rather, this difference must be attributed to global warming. Based on these U.S. Hurricane Risk Measurement 3 opinions, the modeling of hurricane activity should have the ability to additionally capture the time trend of hurricane activity to illustrate the phenomenon that hurricane activity increases with time because of global warming. Texas isn't the only place on Earth where this phenomena is playing out. And you may downvote me, but that doesn't change the data nor the facts.

an_account 9y ago

Governments are starting to realize that “500 year floods” or “100 year floods” are happening a lot more often than anticipated.

yardie 9y ago

Before flood mitigation was installed Houston rarely flooded. After flood mitigation was installed Houston flooded even less. Now Houston, even with flood mitigation, is flooding. So what has changed?

amaranth 9y ago
A lot of what has changed is more development happening. Pavement doesn't absorb water all that well. When the flood mitigation talked about in this article was put in place the area they chose to flood to handle overflow was undeveloped and so was all of the surrounding area.
- libertyEQ 9y ago
  Check this out:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pervious_concrete https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pervious_concrete "Pervious concrete was first used in the 1800s in Europe as pavement surfacing and load bearing walls.[3] Cost efficiency was the main motive due to a decreased amount of cement.[3] It became popular again in the 1920s for two storey homes in Scotland and England. It became increasingly viable in Europe after WWII due to the scarcity of cement. It did not become as popular in the US until the 1970s"