6 ms·

Those old jobs are never coming back.

imglorp 10y ago
No, and it's going to get much worse when the coming automation waves hit. We need a sociological solution. Perhaps base income?
- st3v3r 10y ago
  There is absolutely no way in hell basic income is anywhere near the table now. It's not even in the kitchen. It's been returned to the grocery store.
  - nkrisc 10y ago
    Which is unfortunate since many of these out-of-work Trump supporters who are never getting their factory jobs back would likely benefit from basic income.
    - madamelic 10y ago
      We have to factor in, and I mean this in the nicest way possible, some people are too proud to admit they need help. The reason they want Trump is he promised that he will make it where they can help themselves.
- hx87 10y ago
  Yes to basic income--if democratic socialists and Milton Friedman can agree on an idea, it's worth trying out at least.
- mason240 10y ago
  UBI can't work with the open border situation we currently have.
  - imglorp 10y ago
    Presumably it would only go to citizens, yes?
  - imglorp 10y ago
    Presumably it would only go to citizens, yes?
  - ahoy 10y ago
    Firstly, we don't have open borders. Secondly, why not? Lots of other social programs work with the present "border situation". No illegal immigrants are drawing social security or medicaid.
giardini 10y ago
I'm not so sure about that. Robots will not be immediately cost-effective for all production and it may be 30 years before they permeate manufacturing. Until then humans will serve. I've complained on HN about the low quality of many goods (e.g., nail clippers) and about how the supply chain to US consumers today is no better than it was in my youth more than 50 years ago. Most of you were not yet around to know what the supply chain was like 50 years ago so please suspend your disbelief. QC in some countries appears impervious to consumer feedback; they couldn't produce a decent set of pliers 20 years ago and they cannot today. They may never succeed due to their unique social and political histories. Lack of communication and competitive feedback in non-free markets inhibits quality. In contrast USA manufacturers 50 years ago and earlier produced very high quality goods (many still in use!). I expect the USA to bring back production of high-quality goods and a more robust supply chain. Until someone invents a Star Trek replicator, I expect JIT inventory management to be discarded in many industries; it's primary benefit was bigger bonuses for MBAs. No education I know of available today will prepare youth for the future they face. Once machine learning and AI become widely embedded in manufacturing and commerce, skills required will be beyond the ability of most. Meanwhile grades are falling and testing becoming more lenient. Someday almost no one will have a job. We should plan accordingly. Just for fun, see the movie "Idiocracy ": http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1 http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1 Thread on IMDB discussing the relevance of "Idiocracy" to Trump's victory today: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/board/nest/257141945?ref_=tt_bd_2 http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/board/nest/257141945?ref...
- grzm 10y ago
  "QC in some countries appears impervious to consumer feedback; they couldn't produce a decent set of pliers 20 years ago and they cannot today. They may never succeed due to their unique social and political histories." Would you provide some examples of the countries you're thinking of? My inclination is that it's more a function of demand for cheap products and unwillingness to pay more for better quality even while complaining about the quality of what some are willing to pay for. Also, the generalization that all (or most) products coming out of a country are of equal in quality. Two counter examples come to mind as well. Japan and China have both been a source of cheap, low-quality goods during the last century, and both also produce some very high quality goods as well. I've also purchased very low-quality "Made in USA" products. And things change, including "unique social and political histories". Is it more accurate and useful to think of differences in QC in a general way or to look more closely at the incentives and circumstances at work? If I've mischaracterized your views, please do point it out, as that's not my intent. Thanks!

No, and it's going to get much worse when the coming automation waves hit. We need a sociological solution. Perhaps base income?

st3v3r 10y ago
There is absolutely no way in hell basic income is anywhere near the table now. It's not even in the kitchen. It's been returned to the grocery store.
- nkrisc 10y ago
  Which is unfortunate since many of these out-of-work Trump supporters who are never getting their factory jobs back would likely benefit from basic income.
  - madamelic 10y ago
    We have to factor in, and I mean this in the nicest way possible, some people are too proud to admit they need help. The reason they want Trump is he promised that he will make it where they can help themselves.
hx87 10y ago
Yes to basic income--if democratic socialists and Milton Friedman can agree on an idea, it's worth trying out at least.
mason240 10y ago
UBI can't work with the open border situation we currently have.
- imglorp 10y ago
  Presumably it would only go to citizens, yes?
- imglorp 10y ago
  Presumably it would only go to citizens, yes?
- ahoy 10y ago
  Firstly, we don't have open borders. Secondly, why not? Lots of other social programs work with the present "border situation". No illegal immigrants are drawing social security or medicaid.

giardini 10y ago

I'm not so sure about that. Robots will not be immediately cost-effective for all production and it may be 30 years before they permeate manufacturing. Until then humans will serve. I've complained on HN about the low quality of many goods (e.g., nail clippers) and about how the supply chain to US consumers today is no better than it was in my youth more than 50 years ago. Most of you were not yet around to know what the supply chain was like 50 years ago so please suspend your disbelief. QC in some countries appears impervious to consumer feedback; they couldn't produce a decent set of pliers 20 years ago and they cannot today. They may never succeed due to their unique social and political histories. Lack of communication and competitive feedback in non-free markets inhibits quality. In contrast USA manufacturers 50 years ago and earlier produced very high quality goods (many still in use!). I expect the USA to bring back production of high-quality goods and a more robust supply chain. Until someone invents a Star Trek replicator, I expect JIT inventory management to be discarded in many industries; it's primary benefit was bigger bonuses for MBAs. No education I know of available today will prepare youth for the future they face. Once machine learning and AI become widely embedded in manufacturing and commerce, skills required will be beyond the ability of most. Meanwhile grades are falling and testing becoming more lenient. Someday almost no one will have a job. We should plan accordingly. Just for fun, see the movie "Idiocracy ": http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1 http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1 Thread on IMDB discussing the relevance of "Idiocracy" to Trump's victory today: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/board/nest/257141945?ref_=tt_bd_2 http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/board/nest/257141945?ref...

grzm 10y ago
"QC in some countries appears impervious to consumer feedback; they couldn't produce a decent set of pliers 20 years ago and they cannot today. They may never succeed due to their unique social and political histories." Would you provide some examples of the countries you're thinking of? My inclination is that it's more a function of demand for cheap products and unwillingness to pay more for better quality even while complaining about the quality of what some are willing to pay for. Also, the generalization that all (or most) products coming out of a country are of equal in quality. Two counter examples come to mind as well. Japan and China have both been a source of cheap, low-quality goods during the last century, and both also produce some very high quality goods as well. I've also purchased very low-quality "Made in USA" products. And things change, including "unique social and political histories". Is it more accurate and useful to think of differences in QC in a general way or to look more closely at the incentives and circumstances at work? If I've mischaracterized your views, please do point it out, as that's not my intent. Thanks!