6 ms·

Assume only 10% of the current software will be relevant after 10 years

13 points by data37 10y ago

Which Ones?

Davidbrcz 10y ago
Linux
saretired 10y ago
TeX/LaTeX
twunde 10y ago
Containers (not Docker per se but descendants of it and competitors). Driverless vehicles
victorhugo31337 10y ago
TCP/IP/Ethernet
niftich 10y ago
UEFI NaCl crypto / libsodium HTTP/2+ over QUIC over UDP wasm
flukus 10y ago
GNU tools. I expect them to be relevant longer than I am.
chadcmulligan 10y ago
C compilers
collyw 10y ago
Fucking Facebook probably.
thellimist 10y ago
https://www.commitstrip.com/en/2016/06/28/best-cms-2016/ https://www.commitstrip.com/en/2016/06/28/best-cms-2016/
ThePawnBreak 10y ago
vim, emacs, linux, chrome, jvm, windows, directx, visual studio, javascript, C++, google, facebook, aws, gcc, llvm, photoshop.
p333347 10y ago
The only ones I am willing to wager on are corporate infrastructure related software and domain specific software (like CAD tools, movie animation tools etc). For similar legacy reasons, I am willing to add Linux derivatives and GNU C compiler, but won't wager on them.
- acagle 10y ago
  Thanks to Minecraft, I expect a whole new batch of Java developers over the next several years.
  - mod 10y ago
    Didn't it get ported after MS bought it?
    - Zergy 10y ago
      It got ported for Consoles/Mobile. Porting the PC version would cause every existing mod to stop working, which would be huge, I can't think of a single person I know who plays stock Minecraft.
      - romanovcode 10y ago
        It also got ported for Windows, that's why it is in "beta" for now at Windows Store. It's being rewritten in C++.
LarryMade2 10y ago
Quickbooks on a Windows 7 machine
jbms 10y ago
Matlab/Simulink. Brilliant tool, and lots of brainpower and money being invested in continuously developing it.
samfisher83 10y ago
Excel. Going on 30 year strong.
veddox 10y ago
Looking at what's already been around for >10 years: vim, emacs, linux, windows, mac os x, nethack (plus a whole stack of programming languages like C).
- ThePawnBreak 10y ago
  That's an excellent observation. Probably a better question would be what software younger than 10 years will still be around in 10 years. I'm thinking Go, Rust, Servo, DeepMind, Uber, Slack, Android, iOS (not sure about the age of the last 2), all the cloud providers' software, and a lot of other stuff. Probably docker as well.
billconan 10y ago
photoshop, autocad
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
AnimalMuppet 10y ago
In addition to what others have said: Lisp and Haskell will still be around and relevant. (Relevant being defined as "as relevant as they are today or better", not as "large fractions of new software being written in them".) Hate to say it, but I'd bet that Windows in some form will still be around, with an API that is recognizably similar to today's.

13 points by data37 10y ago

Which Ones?

Davidbrcz 10y ago

Linux

saretired 10y ago

TeX/LaTeX

twunde 10y ago

Containers (not Docker per se but descendants of it and competitors). Driverless vehicles

victorhugo31337 10y ago

TCP/IP/Ethernet

niftich 10y ago

UEFI NaCl crypto / libsodium HTTP/2+ over QUIC over UDP wasm

flukus 10y ago

GNU tools. I expect them to be relevant longer than I am.

chadcmulligan 10y ago

C compilers

collyw 10y ago

Fucking Facebook probably.

thellimist 10y ago

https://www.commitstrip.com/en/2016/06/28/best-cms-2016/ https://www.commitstrip.com/en/2016/06/28/best-cms-2016/

ThePawnBreak 10y ago

vim, emacs, linux, chrome, jvm, windows, directx, visual studio, javascript, C++, google, facebook, aws, gcc, llvm, photoshop.

p333347 10y ago

The only ones I am willing to wager on are corporate infrastructure related software and domain specific software (like CAD tools, movie animation tools etc). For similar legacy reasons, I am willing to add Linux derivatives and GNU C compiler, but won't wager on them.

acagle 10y ago
Thanks to Minecraft, I expect a whole new batch of Java developers over the next several years.
- mod 10y ago
  Didn't it get ported after MS bought it?
  - Zergy 10y ago
    It got ported for Consoles/Mobile. Porting the PC version would cause every existing mod to stop working, which would be huge, I can't think of a single person I know who plays stock Minecraft.
    - romanovcode 10y ago
      It also got ported for Windows, that's why it is in "beta" for now at Windows Store. It's being rewritten in C++.

LarryMade2 10y ago

Quickbooks on a Windows 7 machine

jbms 10y ago

Matlab/Simulink. Brilliant tool, and lots of brainpower and money being invested in continuously developing it.

samfisher83 10y ago

Excel. Going on 30 year strong.

veddox 10y ago

Looking at what's already been around for >10 years: vim, emacs, linux, windows, mac os x, nethack (plus a whole stack of programming languages like C).

ThePawnBreak 10y ago
That's an excellent observation. Probably a better question would be what software younger than 10 years will still be around in 10 years. I'm thinking Go, Rust, Servo, DeepMind, Uber, Slack, Android, iOS (not sure about the age of the last 2), all the cloud providers' software, and a lot of other stuff. Probably docker as well.

billconan 10y ago

photoshop, autocad

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

AnimalMuppet 10y ago

In addition to what others have said: Lisp and Haskell will still be around and relevant. (Relevant being defined as "as relevant as they are today or better", not as "large fractions of new software being written in them".) Hate to say it, but I'd bet that Windows in some form will still be around, with an API that is recognizably similar to today's.