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Not in this particular case. Like others have pointed out, it is not in the best interest of EU to give UK a sweet deal and it is not that hard to understand wh
by j7f3 10y ago
Not in this particular case. Like others have pointed out, it is not in the best interest of EU to give UK a sweet deal and it is not that hard to understand why. UK has had a sweet deal with the EU full of exceptional treatments. It can veto anything it wants and frequently exercises its right to do so but does not contribute much to the common piggy bank. But now UK wants to leave altogether, will not contribute financially at all but will have an even better trade deal? What message does it send to those who are loyal members of EU? That they will be financially penalized for their loyalty? There is no way Britain gets a decent deal at all.
I read that about 5% of EU's trade is with UK. It's not insignificant but it's not the end of the world if it goes down to 0.5%. We will fuck UK over, good riddance, we will be stronger without UK, now we will finally pursue tighter integration without fear UK will sabotage such attempts.
- UK-AL 10y agoSo Germany will risk 1\5 of German car workers because it wants to send a message?
- barrkel 10y agoThere are no circumstances whatsoever that the EU will give the UK a trade deal like Norway / Switzerland / Iceland / etc. without the UK paying for the EU budget and allowing free movement of people, for example. All the things that the UK population voted against are exactly what prevents them from getting a trade deal. Something will have to give. If you want to go with the rationalist perspective you seem to be advocating, then the UK government will have to be anti-democratic and strike a deal explicitly against their citizen's declared interests. (This vote is particularly vexing for me since I'm Irish (voted stay) and now will have to sell my house in order to leave. Quite upsetting, overall.)
- FreeFull 10y agoNorthern Ireland might decide to become part of Ireland though, which would keep you in the EU. I wouldn't sell your house yet.
- atmercy 10y agoPeople in the North are UK citizens already (and free to also get Irish citizenship). I believe they mean they're an Irish citizen living in the UK (maybe England itself) and they're worried that they might not be able to stay living there.
- chillydawg 10y agoIrish citizens living in the UK have a right to vote in all UK elections. I think the GP was one of those, rather than a NI resident.
- eva1984 10y agoThey can sell cars to other countries. And UK will still buy them, just fewer.
- tonyedgecombe 10y agoGermany is only one of 27 countries making this decison.
- tehbeard 10y agoMaking the assumption that all 27 are equal and cannot possibly lean on others.
- anacleto 10y agoDefinitely not the case.
- tonyedgecombe 10y agoGermany has a lot of might and will lean on the others but it remains to be seen how much effect that has, I have my doubts.
- PopsiclePete 10y agoRiiiiiight. And in NATO, all NATO members are "equal" too, right? The US is just as important as Bulgaria, they're just "members"? Germany, where the ECB is, which is the most powerful economy in Europe, which basically controls the single European currency, is "just another country" in the EU, with an opinion that matters just as much as that of Portugal? You honestly believe that?
- tonyedgecombe 10y agoI believe they will act in their own interest.
- _pmf_ 10y ago> So Germany will risk 1\5 of German car workers because it wants to send a message? Let's be clear: it's the UK that felt obliged to send a message. The rest of Europe's countries does not have delusions of grandeur and feel disenfranchised by foreign workers making minimum wage.
- Chris2048 10y ago> The rest of Europe's countries does not have delusions of grandeur and feel disenfranchised by foreign workers making minimum wage. There are many reasons to leave the EU, other than "delusions of grandeur" (the US seems to do pretty well..) and xenophoia. Perhaps the UK wanted to make choices without being slandered like this.
- _pmf_ 10y ago> Perhaps the UK wanted to make choices What choice? You can wish that the refugee crisis would not exist, but the choice has been made when deciding whether or not to be the 6th largest weapon exporter. Acting like an overrun victim now is a bit schizophrenic and it's sad to see 52 percent small minded bigots pulling down a country in this way.
- Chris2048 10y ago52% bigots? What an astute grasp of politics..
- kodfodrasz 10y agoSanctions against Russia hurt the German economy, and the workers, just to send a message. Accepting lots of troublesome unskilled illegal immigrants hurt the German economy, and the workers, but sent a message. I think I can see a pattern here...
- majewsky 10y ago> Accepting lots of troublesome unskilled illegal immigrants hurt the German economy It's the other way around: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/09/germany-imf-economy-growth-refugees-migrants-labour-ageing-population https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/09/germany-imf...
- kodfodrasz 10y agoThis is pure bullshit. Lot of the illegals cannot even read and write. They don't know the language. Most of them are also not refugees. They will be liabilities. The skilled labour from the Eastern-European countries is an asset on the other hand. Actually robots will take away lots of jobs. Why do we need more unskilled people in our lands, when soon even the skilled labour will be automatized, and unemployment will grow further?
- majewsky 10y ago> Lots of the illegals cannot even read and write. Except they can. Many Syrian refugees are proficient in English, and many even speak German. There was strong collaboration between German and Syrian universities historically. (I'm not saying that everyone can read and write, but then again, Western societies have a surprising number of total and functional analphabets.) And re the automation argument: Automation only takes away medium-skilled jobs. Jobs are for unskilled people because they don't require training, and that's also why they are a poor fit for robots. (Robots don't like irregular situations and need programming for new tasks, whereas you can easily explain a new task to a human worker in a few sentences.) I always laugh at how people equate more people in a country with growing unemployment rates. If this really worried you, you would move to outlaw procreation, since procreation produces new workers to compete with you about 18 years from now.
- Tomte 10y agoWhy should 1/5 of car exports lead to exactly the same propostion of lost jobs? That argument even prima facie wrong. And it's not about Germany. It's about 27 countries, some of which don't even like Germany too much right now.
- Atropos 10y agoYes. I am German and pro-European and I would happily take a deal that our GDP will be cut 20% if UK's GP is cut even 10% in return. Not to punish the UK, but to firmly establish the principle that leaving the EU is painful. While this might not be the optimum from an economics point of view, it serves to keep the European Union alive - which is much more important in the long run (no more war etc...).
- sievebrain 10y agoI suspect you will find that your enjoyment of self harm is not shared by most Germans. Not to punish the UK, but to firmly establish the principle that leaving the EU is painful Do you realise how crazy you people sound? "There's no punishment for leaving the Mafia, you just have to understand the principle that it will be as painful as possible". The EU has warped into an ideological disease that sees European people's turned against one another by an absolutist religion that sees diversity as a flaw to be fixed and believes its own hype about stopping wars. The EU does nothing to stop war. If turning Europe into a single country could stop war, there'd be no civil wars, but today the only wars are civil wars.
- Atropos 10y agoIt does not matter much if it is shared by most Germans - what matters is if it is shared by a small elite of German, French, and EU Commission/Parliament leaders. Do you really think the German population will rise up if you tell them "Hold up, discriminating against the UK in derivatives clearing rules will cost you 0.0x% of your GDP!" And to most people (outside of the UK), it is quite obvious anyway that contracts negotiated between friends cannot be transposed 1:1 into a relationship between entities who are not friends.
- GunboatDiplomat 10y agoYou realize that that is Great Depression level shit... last time that happened, you guys went a little nuts.
- roymurdock 10y ago> now we will finally pursue tighter integration without fear UK will sabotage such attempts Or other debtor countries in the EU will see this as a chance to possibly get out of the union and "start over" as it were.
- kodfodrasz 10y ago> now we will finally pursue tighter integration without fear UK will sabotage such attempts. Hitler and Stalin will be proud of their heritage.
- speleding 10y agoIt's 5% for Europe on average, but for Germany and the Netherlands it's much higher (15% for the Netherlands). No politician in his right mind is going to risk that to spite the British.
- sievebrain 10y agoLeaders of EU countries are generally not in their right mind though. Merkel has flat out said that the EU for them is an emotional issue not a logical one. This vote will set in motion a chain of events that can reshape politics across the continent. The EU leaders who have little to lose will use their votes to force the UK's main trading partners (Germany, Netherlands, Sweden etc) to start a trade war with the UK, at the same time as the UK is wanting to sign trade deals. This will piss off the populations in those countries. Referendums may well follow there too.
- beninvalencia 10y ago"We will fuck UK over" "Now we will finally pursue tighter integration" I have to say, with this kind of attitude, I am even more glad that the UK has left the EU. Who would want to be partners with this kind of spite and hatred?
- lostlogin 10y agoWhy did you want to leave?
- beninvalencia 10y agoRegain sovereignty. Be able to set immigration to points based - like the US, Canada, Australia. Why should we discriminate against Indians, Chinese, Bangladeshis, Africans for the EU? I like immigrants and I think they help our economy, but I want this to be run better. I don't agree with how the EU subsidizes e.g. French farmers at the expense of e.g. African farmers. To not be a part of what seems to be a failing system and having to answer to the un-elected European Commission, and to therefore avoid being swept along in integration which isn't so good. It might sound odd, but I didn't vote for leave. But I can see that now that this is what we have, maybe there are some reasons to be positive.
- radu_floricica 10y ago> Be able to set immigration to points based - like the US, Canada, Australia. Why should we discriminate against Indians, Because EU people are not immigrants. That's the whole point. They are citizens, which happen to be born 1000 km to the east and in a different historic region - but they are citizens. There is no discrimination here because you're comparing apples and oranges. One day, if globalization advances far enough, we will have the exact same conditions for all (or most) of the world, in some form or another. But brexit is a step back from this, not forward.
- tomp 10y ago> I don't agree with how the EU subsidizes e.g. French farmers at the expense of e.g. African farmers. Don't you think not having enough local food production to feed the population is a liability of any sovereign nation? Personally, I think there are "strategically important" industries (like food, steel, weapons) that countries need to protect to remain sovereign, by subsidies or other means.
- marvin 10y agoThis is just a ridiculous brinkmanship issue all the way around the table. The current situation with the exit vote wouldn't have been necessary if the concerns of the Leave side had been taken seriously by EU leadership (more local governance, for instance). Now we're in a sorry situation where each party's incentive is the opposite of what is required for a healthy economy, and the important decisions require referendums and take a very long time. The fact that the vote to leave was mostly supported by older voters is a tragedy for the future generation, who do not have a straightforward way of having their concerns heard in the coming decades.
- saiya-jin 10y agono, now incentives in EU are to have healthy EU economy, without caring about UK one. this means rest of states will stay together for example. which could mean punishing UK financially for this silliness. you express UK-centric view, this is EU-centric one that goes beyond individual state/industry. UK goods become more expensive? well then some intern EU ones might become more interesting.
- emptyfile 10y agoBy "the concerns of the Leave side" you must mean the main point of the Leave camping, abolishing freedom of movement in the EU? Goodbye Britain, don't let the door hit you on the way out.
- gonvaled 10y agoWe are tired of your exceptionalism. You had a great (unfair for the rest) deal, and you were still complaining. We do not care one bit about the “concerns of the leave side“. Just go.
- marvin 10y agoI'm not even a British citizen, I've been to Briain once. I am a European though, and worried about the economic situation in Europe.
- mcv 10y agoThis is the reason why I think losing the UK may not be all that bad for the EU. The UK got a very sweet deal, and was very obstructionist in return. Leaving and getting a reasonable deal outside the EU may be better for the EU, and maybe the UK will be happier there. I think vindictive sanctions or refusing new trade deals with the UK would be stupid, childish and harmful for the EU. I hope they work together on a reasonable and fair deal. And then maybe the EU can move forward towards a closer union, and maybe also address some of the problems with the EU, because it's hardly perfect.
- gonvaled 10y agoNo vindictive sanctions, just a deal on EU terms. The UK can take it or leave it.
- hayd 10y agoThat's not a "deal"... and not how things work in real life. There'll be negotiation and both the EU and the UK will get less than they want. There'll be free trade for sure, ironically there'll most likely free movement too.
- mcv 10y agoMore importantly, the UK will get less than they currently have. There's no possible way a new deal is going to be better than the already very sweet deal they currently have. A fair and reasonable deal will probably be something like that Norway and Switzerland have, which is very similar to what the UK currently has, but loses them their vote in the EU, and doesn't give them most of the things the Leave camp promised. A deal that gets them everything the Leave camp promised is impossible. It is possible that the UK gets a slightly better deal than what Switzerland and Norway have, because the UK is bigger, but it's still not going to be a lot better. Certainly not in the current climate.
- beninvalencia 10y agoPurely out of curiosity - why do you clearly loathe the UK so much? Is it personal?