maxglute

8 ms·

31.
by maxglute 13d ago
Google still owns me a few $100 when they banned my watch only youtube red (premium at the time) account for community guideline violations which prevented me from even accessing payment page to stop / cancel. Had to do automated repea
32.
by maxglute 15d ago
It's not just about node advancement, which is coupe de grace condition. Even if hardware advancement freezes, its about IC premium that fed current tranch of AI buildout. Current players paid $10 for a $2 hammer due to premium, a bett
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by maxglute 15d ago
It's not mischaracterization to point out limits of article is a poor basis to dunk on Zitron because it does not refute Zitron's broader thesis only nitpick what is really minutae/noise that can be explained by trillion doll
34.
by maxglute 15d ago
Of course it follows. Investors exuberantly build $10 of housing when there is $5 of demand, builders extract $8, when they normally extract $2 under normal margins, builders raking it, but arrangement is net loses vs world where investors
35.
by maxglute 15d ago
This narrow focus, of course some intermediaries in industrial chain is going to make $$$ selling/renting shovels - there is stupendous amount of $$$ being moved around, there will be some very phat winners, but even more losers in agg
36.
by maxglute 15d ago
This just assumes Luu's piece has good argument that refutes Zitron's thesis when it doesn't. Saying Zitron is wrong because XYZ made $2 instead of $1 is different then Zitron staying XYZ is unlikely to make $10 in time when
37.
by maxglute 15d ago
>You're refuted. No, the whole thesis is XYZ likely fail because REVENUE RECORDS is not enough to dig out of hole relative to MAGNITUDE MORE SPEND. Saying Zitron wrong because XYZ made $2 for every $10 it spends revenue needed to ju
38.
by maxglute 15d ago
On a spectrum between tulip wilting and fiber build out, we know deprecation cycle of DC hardware leans towards tulips i.e. <10 years (very generous) vs 20+ years for fiber layout, a lot of which is actually infra/earth works etc. T
39.
by maxglute 15d ago
I don't know if directed at me because I didn't ask if one read article. > it's not enough It's enough for some of us, like his broad predictions that work on timescale of business cycles seem directionally correct. E
40.
by maxglute 15d ago
I edited while you were responding with second para. I think his analysis that existing investors are walking corpses (or economically exhausted/weakened) is substantial. You have new companies going into extreme debt and established c
41.
by maxglute 15d ago
Yes? What happened to FAANG in last 3 years, they cut a fuck load of jobs, the raised rent/prices, then inflation, then experience surge in new category AI. 1 + 2, i.e. squeezing rock has limits. 3 is fundamentally not sustainable, i.e
42.
by maxglute 15d ago
How? AFAIK, his arguments based around the economics remains the same, he just seems increasingly dramatic and exacerbated, which is understandable when you realize industry + ecosystem (politics/reporting) is tulip mania delulu and in
43.
by maxglute 17d ago
No many real furniture out there with entire ecosystem of storage/containers sized for it. IKEA sheet/stamped metal stuff that introduced a few years ago will last forever.
44.
by maxglute 17d ago
Most impressive / annoying thing about Ikea is how they keep value engineering products, some products are cheaper relative to inflation vs decades ago, but at the same time it be nice if they just settle one some "timeless"
45.
by maxglute 17d ago
Fun (?) fact: Half of men in PRC smokes, consuming ~50% of global cigarettes (~2.5 trillion darts). Consider PRC pop density/distribution: ~20% of global population consume ~50% global cigarettes on ~2% of terrestrial land mass.
46.
by maxglute 19d ago
Carsick simulator. Cool otherwise.
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by maxglute 19d ago
As someone who finds Rockstar gameplay mid, deep down want GTA6 fail and Rockstar turn into engine company like unreal. I know big part of the formula is $$$ but there's so much neat stuff in Rockstar games that AAA hasn't gotten
48.
by maxglute 21d ago
>generally believed to be Generally believed by orthodox economics whose credibility is not so hot. CUSFTA, NFTA, USMCA... there was brief decade in 90s with CUSFTA integration where rising water lift all boats, but realistically Canadia
49.
by maxglute 21d ago
LBH, Canada has always been real economy loser with respect US trade with ~80b goods / services deficit AFTER discounted energy - cheap crude sales to US to fuel US refinery mismatch. US doesn't have strategic domestic energy self
50.
by maxglute 21d ago
Compelling argument from only msg on new account.
51.
by maxglute 21d ago
Annoying, after disruptions last few years, ended up using extension that manually scrolls through timeline to build a daily digest of tweets, which is all I really need. Keep time spend on bird site to a minimum.
52.
by maxglute 21d ago
By charging $$$ like they do now and having a non terminal business model. PRC AI have lower opex and capex, i.e. export controls means they couldn't be trillions in the hole on inflated hardware in the first place. They only need to e
53.
by maxglute 21d ago
By charging $$$ like they do now and having a non terminal business model. PRC AI have lower opex and capex, i.e. export controls means they couldn't be trillions in the hole on inflated hardware in the first place. They only need to e
54.
by maxglute 21d ago
$40,000 GPU is like few pennies in sand. Only mildly hyperbolic. But a GPU fresh out of fab is $2000 after ASML, TSMC and inputs get their 50-75% margin, then somehow $40k laundered through US financialization / Nvidia margins. Commodi
55.
by maxglute 23d ago
This is false equivalence. Direct producer subsidies for PRC EV was <100B, less than US injected into US auto, not much more than Euro auto. The latter just poorly, i.e. pork barrel / jobs programs that does not raise baseline compe
56.
by maxglute 23d ago
Xiaomi EVs sales growing ~15% YoY, they just likely to miss their wildly ambitious ~33% YoY target. Or they might get close, they're 80% of target for H1, but PRC sells more cars in H2 (no Q1 new years, Q3+Q4 big sales). But it's
57.
by maxglute 23d ago
IMO bot that important practically - SiC batteries, active cooling, bypass charging etc - if one really cares about sustained performance (gaming etc), PRC has phones segments big on mitigating thermal throttling. Exclude benchmark drama, g
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by maxglute 23d ago
PRC going to get have surplus of semi talent and equipment in a few years that food delivery companies Meituan probably going to starting making chips like they do LLMs. Only 60% joking.
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by maxglute 24d ago
I have separate profiles for PRC convos and select topics, because some can't handle "pro" PRC comments and reee about "propaganda". Hence this account has more PRC talk because easier to silo. Also, how many times.
60.
by maxglute 24d ago
Who cares about my profile, geopolitical reality has a PRC bias what can I say. I call out Nonsense arguments about PRC, and there's plenty of them. >The argument could be made No, it can't because it discounts the 12/14 l

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