Pyramus

5 ms·

61.
by Pyramus 4y ago
Not sure if the risk/benefits analysis is that simple, because the risk/benefits evolve over time. At the beginning of a pandemic it is definitely beneficial, but it changes when either spread is too high, or other measures (vacci
62.
by Pyramus 4y ago
You make a valid, and ultimately depressing point. I see lots of commentators arguing about 'lockdowns', but very little discussion what actually constitutes 'lockdowns'. Lockdowns in China looked very different to lockd
63.
by Pyramus 4y ago
Not sure if irony/sarcasm will lead to a more productive discussion. FYI chicken pox is not part of the routine vaccine schedule (in the UK) to protect unvaccinated adults: "There's a worry that introducing chickenpox vaccina
64.
by Pyramus 4y ago
You are conflating effectiveness (change in outcomes) with efficacy (change in outcomes relative to placebo or other intervention). Both are worth knowing, because usually there are no free lunches to be had - interventions (also those that
65.
by Pyramus 4y ago
It seems to me you are conflating different types of investors that take short positions: * What you are describing is a form of market manipulation where somebody will take a short position and then have somebody else publish a hit piece o
66.
by Pyramus 4y ago
It can be. And it's not all positive. The nocebo effect can be so strong, that people actually die because they think they are cursed (other examples: Covid vaccines, statins, ...). Any generalised statement about the effect of placebo
67.
by Pyramus 4y ago
That's a common myth. It has no benefit relative to placebo, i.e. needles placed at random. And needles placed at random do seem to have significant placebo effect for some conditions and people.
68.
by Pyramus 4y ago
You misunderstood parent's point. If you are a serial short seller, you can do "false propaganda" at most once. You can still get things wrong, but you are negatively incentivised to do so because of reputation effects.
69.
by Pyramus 4y ago
I agree with the bias, still there isn't a chicken and egg problem in most cases: You do the research before you take the short position, you only publish the research afterwards. If you are a credible investor, the short position foll
70.
by Pyramus 4y ago
Very unlikely. In this case 'the market' is not WallStreetBets, it's experts around the world who do nothing else but assess and estimate the risks. There are two explanations I can think of: > Compare that with nuclear, w
71.
by Pyramus 4y ago
That is correct - if we were to price in "cancer" for coal maybe indeed coal may not be economic anymore. But that's unrelated to the insurance cost of nuclear power. Either 'the market' (i.e. the people most knowle
72.
by Pyramus 4y ago
That's the issue with "safe" - it's difficult to capture in a single factor like number of accidents and for this factor, the distribution of the metric is very different. Here's a different metric that entails both
73.
by Pyramus 4y ago
> nuclear power which are and have always been the safest and cleanest way to produce electricity Definitely not. There's a good argument to be made nuclear power in the 'global North' is relatively safe today. At the same
74.
by Pyramus 4y ago
You are correct - I should have been more precise: I hypothesis parent has not done science research professionally (again happy to be proven wrong). Don't get me wrong, I'm not defending social science research per se (yes, there
75.
by Pyramus 4y ago
> is a great example of why people don't or shouldn't take the social sciences seriously. Oh the irony in your last statement. Somebody who hasn't done social science research professionally (this is an assumption, let me
76.
by Pyramus 4y ago
I think you misunderstood parent. There is a natural order on the tree of life starting in the first living organism (the root node) and ending in organisms that are still around (the leaf nodes). With 'last' parent meant 'la
77.
by Pyramus 4y ago
Thanks for the recommendation. It's written "the pay check" in case you are trying to find it in a Podcast app with an underdeveloped search function.
78.
by Pyramus 4y ago
Yes, but it doesn't strengthen the argument. If society A says the speed limit is X and society B it's Y and society C it's infinite. What's the point that speed is objectively measurable?
79.
by Pyramus 4y ago
I'm not sure I understand your reasoning - why would some negative effects of an intervention automatically invalidate the positive effects? If you don't think there are plenty of positive effects, feel free to speak to somebody f
80.
by Pyramus 4y ago
Agree with your definition of censorship. > A speed limit is a censure not a censor by any means whatsoever. My point is there is a reason every single Western democracy has restrictions to free speech. And these restriction come from th
81.
by Pyramus 4y ago
I 100% agree with you. There is strong indication we are heading towards a more volatile world, and we need to collectively discuss these questions. I'd like to add that most posters here on HN are arguing conditional on living in a We
82.
by Pyramus 4y ago
Speed limits are not objective at all - Germany infamously does not have speed limits on highways. And yes, speed limit laws, do change over time. And no, you can't be punished for having broken a speed limit in the past, that is not i
83.
by Pyramus 4y ago
> As for racist speech, I really truly believe that censoring does not ever serve its intended purpose. What is censoring for you? I don't see a single Western democracy that is not "censoring" or restricting the rights of
84.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Well then - congratulations! You are an outlier. From my experience significantly less than 5% of iOS/Android devs have created a somewhat popular app, and maintained it for some time.
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by Pyramus 5y ago
It's one thing to "write an app" and something else completely to bring it to a standard consumable by lay users. Having published and maintained an app that is in active use by even a couple hundred users gives you an advant
86.
by Pyramus 5y ago
It's not that straightforward unfortunately. Let's leave the whole waste deposal issue aside for now, it seems to be still the case that the free market considers nuclear power plants too risky. What I mean by that is that no oper
87.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Yes, what I'm saying is I haven't seen evidence that change in the oil at smoke point is correlated with safety/toxicity. Found the video: https://youtu.be/l_aFHrzSBrM
88.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Watched the video and came to the same conclusion - Mearsheimer argues that Putin would be "too smart", "rational" and "strategic" to invade Ukraine. He seems to be right in many other points, so go watch the v
89.
by Pyramus 5y ago
It's a very German thing to not use olive oil for frying. It took me by surprise when living abroad, and to realise it's a common frying oil in Mediterranean countries but also in the UK.
90.
by Pyramus 5y ago
I thought it was a common myth that the smoke point of an oil correlates with toxicity -- do you have a source that there is a causal relationship? The reason for olive oil not being used for deep frying is mostly taste and cost, as far as

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