11 ms·

Stock is already down 6.31% in aftermarket! Geez

by abhigupta 11y ago

CardenB 11y ago
Is there a reason why stock would drop so much? Did they fail to hit some target?
- Ecco 11y ago
  No Apple Watch numbers = lousy start
  - callumjones 11y ago
    Apple never said they would be breaking out the numbers for the watch.
  - guywithabike 11y ago
    They explicitly stated in the last earnings call that they would not break out Apple Watch sales separately for competitive reasons.
- frinxor 11y ago
  expected 49-51b revenue. rev was at 49.6. i think aapl has been beating rev estimates for a while, while this one was right in the low end of expected edit: was incorrect on my numbers. spiralpolitik: Expected revenue for Q3 was 46-48b (see Q2 earnings press release). So they beat the estimate by 1.6 billion. The 49-51b number is the Q4 estimate.
  - luso_brazilian 11y ago
    From the press release (emphasis mine): The Company posted quarterly revenue of $49.6 billion and quarterly net profit of $10.7 billion, or $1.85 per diluted share. (...) Gross margin was 39.7 percent compared to 39.4 percent in the year-ago quarter. Investor conclusion: Apple is not doing so well. There is something wrong with the stock market when a company post record profits, almost 40% margin (on electronics) and that's seen as an omen. I understand it is the opposite, brokers bet earlier that the results would be even better and are now unloading the bets at a lower price (causing the market correction) but even so it is amazing how detached stock brokerage is from investment and how close it is from gambling.
    - airza 11y ago
      Part of the value of the stock is expected returns, and if the expected returns suddenly change than the value of the stock will suddenly change too. I don't think that it's necessarily an omen.
    - forgetsusername 11y ago
      >but even so it is amazing how detached stock brokerage is from investment and how close it is from gambling. Funny, I reach the exact opposite conclusion: people were willing to pay a specific price for Apple dependent on the expectations of future earnings. Those earnings didn't meet expectations, therefore the market adjusted the price. Working as intended.
  - spiralpolitik 11y ago
    Expected revenue for Q3 was 46-48b (see Q2 earnings press release). So they beat the estimate by 1.6 billion. The 49-51b number is the Q4 estimate.
- ajross 11y ago
  They missed revenue estimates by a mile. This is why serious stock watchers tend to prefer links to industry analysis and not press releases.
  - spiralpolitik 11y ago
    Expected Q3 revenue was 46 billion to 48 billion as per the Q2 earnings press release. They earned 49.6 billion so beat the estimate by 1.6 billion. Or are saying they missed the estimate that some analyst pulled out of their ass ?
    - arrrg 11y ago
      Analysts on average actually did better in predicting Apple’s revenue than Apple. (Apple obviously seems to be very conservative in their predictions, though.)
    - ajross 11y ago
      The analysts' recta have historically been much more accurate than Apple's press releases, which have (as is not atypical in the tech industry) routinely and severely underestimated revenue.
  - arrrg 11y ago
    That is completely incorrect. They are right in the middle of revenue predictions. Slightly on the lower end, sure, but that does not qualify as missing by a mile. If you say missing by a mile I would expect at least one standard deviation. Here is a spreadsheet of analyst predictions: http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/apple-earnings-expectations-q3/ http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/apple-earnings-expectations-q3... They range from $48b to $53b.
    - Oletros 11y ago
      Horace Dediu predictions are really funny
    - ajross 11y ago
      For Apple, that's a miss by a mile, sorry. And it's not like I'm the only one that thinks so -- check the stock price. It doesn't care much about downvotes either.
- JonFish85 11y ago
  Stock tends to over-react in after-hours trading, I think. I don't do any after-hours trading, but it seems like it usually settles in someplace before market open the next day. I'm not saying it will or anything, but that seems to happen immediately after an earnings report is dropped.
- kumarm 11y ago
  Below expectations (Previous Quarter results and current quarter projections): Here's what analysts are expecting, via the Bloomberg Terminal. Revenue: $49.4 billion EPS: $1.81 iPhone units: 48.8 million (whisper number is 50 million) iPad units: 10.9 million Mac units: 4.9 million Revenue guidance: $51.06 billion
  - arrrg 11y ago
    At most very slightly below, right? Revenue and EPS are actually better in their earnings report. The only thing that’s worse is that they sold 1.3 million fewer iPhones and .1 million fewer Macs. iPads are right on. Revenue guidance is $49b to $51b.
- eridius 11y ago
  This always happens with Apple, although I admit that 6.31% is a bit on the high side. In general, Wall Street doesn't act the slightest bit rationally around Apple. No matter how record-breaking Apple's numbers are, there's always some insane analyst that projected even higher numbers, which means everybody then reports Apple as a "miss" (even though they always beat their own estimates, and meet or beat all of the sane analyst predictions, which is most of them). And since it's a "miss", stock drops. Really, what's more shocking is those very rare times when the stock climbs after-hours after an earnings report (or after the WWDC keynote or the annual September event).

Stock is already down 6.31% in aftermarket! Geez

CardenB 11y ago

Is there a reason why stock would drop so much? Did they fail to hit some target?

Ecco 11y ago
No Apple Watch numbers = lousy start
- callumjones 11y ago
  Apple never said they would be breaking out the numbers for the watch.
- guywithabike 11y ago
  They explicitly stated in the last earnings call that they would not break out Apple Watch sales separately for competitive reasons.
frinxor 11y ago
expected 49-51b revenue. rev was at 49.6. i think aapl has been beating rev estimates for a while, while this one was right in the low end of expected edit: was incorrect on my numbers. spiralpolitik: Expected revenue for Q3 was 46-48b (see Q2 earnings press release). So they beat the estimate by 1.6 billion. The 49-51b number is the Q4 estimate.
- luso_brazilian 11y ago
  From the press release (emphasis mine): The Company posted quarterly revenue of $49.6 billion and quarterly net profit of $10.7 billion, or $1.85 per diluted share. (...) Gross margin was 39.7 percent compared to 39.4 percent in the year-ago quarter. Investor conclusion: Apple is not doing so well. There is something wrong with the stock market when a company post record profits, almost 40% margin (on electronics) and that's seen as an omen. I understand it is the opposite, brokers bet earlier that the results would be even better and are now unloading the bets at a lower price (causing the market correction) but even so it is amazing how detached stock brokerage is from investment and how close it is from gambling.
  - airza 11y ago
    Part of the value of the stock is expected returns, and if the expected returns suddenly change than the value of the stock will suddenly change too. I don't think that it's necessarily an omen.
  - forgetsusername 11y ago
    >but even so it is amazing how detached stock brokerage is from investment and how close it is from gambling. Funny, I reach the exact opposite conclusion: people were willing to pay a specific price for Apple dependent on the expectations of future earnings. Those earnings didn't meet expectations, therefore the market adjusted the price. Working as intended.
- spiralpolitik 11y ago
  Expected revenue for Q3 was 46-48b (see Q2 earnings press release). So they beat the estimate by 1.6 billion. The 49-51b number is the Q4 estimate.
ajross 11y ago
They missed revenue estimates by a mile. This is why serious stock watchers tend to prefer links to industry analysis and not press releases.
- spiralpolitik 11y ago
  Expected Q3 revenue was 46 billion to 48 billion as per the Q2 earnings press release. They earned 49.6 billion so beat the estimate by 1.6 billion. Or are saying they missed the estimate that some analyst pulled out of their ass ?
  - arrrg 11y ago
    Analysts on average actually did better in predicting Apple’s revenue than Apple. (Apple obviously seems to be very conservative in their predictions, though.)
  - ajross 11y ago
    The analysts' recta have historically been much more accurate than Apple's press releases, which have (as is not atypical in the tech industry) routinely and severely underestimated revenue.
- arrrg 11y ago
  That is completely incorrect. They are right in the middle of revenue predictions. Slightly on the lower end, sure, but that does not qualify as missing by a mile. If you say missing by a mile I would expect at least one standard deviation. Here is a spreadsheet of analyst predictions: http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/apple-earnings-expectations-q3/ http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/apple-earnings-expectations-q3... They range from $48b to $53b.
  - Oletros 11y ago
    Horace Dediu predictions are really funny
  - ajross 11y ago
    For Apple, that's a miss by a mile, sorry. And it's not like I'm the only one that thinks so -- check the stock price. It doesn't care much about downvotes either.
JonFish85 11y ago
Stock tends to over-react in after-hours trading, I think. I don't do any after-hours trading, but it seems like it usually settles in someplace before market open the next day. I'm not saying it will or anything, but that seems to happen immediately after an earnings report is dropped.
kumarm 11y ago
Below expectations (Previous Quarter results and current quarter projections): Here's what analysts are expecting, via the Bloomberg Terminal. Revenue: $49.4 billion EPS: $1.81 iPhone units: 48.8 million (whisper number is 50 million) iPad units: 10.9 million Mac units: 4.9 million Revenue guidance: $51.06 billion
- arrrg 11y ago
  At most very slightly below, right? Revenue and EPS are actually better in their earnings report. The only thing that’s worse is that they sold 1.3 million fewer iPhones and .1 million fewer Macs. iPads are right on. Revenue guidance is $49b to $51b.
eridius 11y ago
This always happens with Apple, although I admit that 6.31% is a bit on the high side. In general, Wall Street doesn't act the slightest bit rationally around Apple. No matter how record-breaking Apple's numbers are, there's always some insane analyst that projected even higher numbers, which means everybody then reports Apple as a "miss" (even though they always beat their own estimates, and meet or beat all of the sane analyst predictions, which is most of them). And since it's a "miss", stock drops. Really, what's more shocking is those very rare times when the stock climbs after-hours after an earnings report (or after the WWDC keynote or the annual September event).