This is still the wrong math. I'm not qualified to come up with a great model here, but given that the S&P 500 has only lost value in 5 of the last 25 years the

This is still the wrong math. I'm not qualified to come up with a great model here, but given that the S&P 500 has only lost value in 5 of the last 25 years the chances of having no losses in the last 25 years are a lot greater. I've been investing for almost a decade, was lucky enough to sit out the worst in 2008, and I haven't had a down year in 10 years myself. This outcome was mostly luck on my part.