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Services like Airbnb and Uber will be become commodities. There will be some service like Kayak or Expedia to find you the lowest fare in the future. These comp

by nlake44 11y ago

Services like Airbnb and Uber will be become commodities. There will be some service like Kayak or Expedia to find you the lowest fare in the future. These companies will have to offer an API or be undercut by competitive services. Uber and these other services better grab as much money as they can right now.

konsptheory 11y ago
Any predominantly Silicon-based (digital) business tends to commoditize over time and Uber or any other service is no exception.
- nlake44 11y ago
  Yes. Nothing last forever.
- r00fus 11y ago
  How do you explain Apple?
  - TwiztidK 11y ago
    The existence of Apple doesn't preclude the ongoing commoditization of the PC, smartphone, and tablet markets. Apple has already stopped producing servers, which are effective commodity items now.
  - konsptheory 11y ago
    Contrary to popular belief and urban myths, the market in which Apple operates is ripe for commoditization and iPod and most recently iPad sales are the best proofs now for my assertion. Forward looking, I'd be really very surprised to see Apple staying relevant in tech in the next decade as the smartphone revolution fades away and the novelty factor they enjoy or make up as well as market dominance will follow suit.
    - gress 11y ago
      The iPod and iPad markets have not commoditized.
      - konsptheory 11y ago
        Yes, it's a work in progress
        gress 11y ago
        No it isn't. Neither market has been overtaken by commodity products at all. Your argument about Apple products being commoditized is totally without merit. The Mac and iPhone continue to gain share in markets that have commodity alternatives. The iPad sales have slowed but they haven't slowed as much as the commodity alternatives. iPod sales have slowed not because people are buying commodity MP3 players instead, but because people are no longer buying standalone MP3 players.
        konsptheory 11y ago
        The tablet market and more importantly its poster boy the iPad (the notebook killer lol) have been swallowed by two beasts simultaneously, from the bottom up, larger size smartphones, and from the top down, hybrid notebooks like the Surface/Yoga that integrated the touch based interface and generally speaking more capable devices not toys. The MP3 player market and iPods in particular have been swallowed and cannibalized to Apple's discontent by their smartphones and their peers again. So, it doesn't look rosy for Apple as it's becoming more and more a one trick pony with one single dominant product while the rest are suffering or in steadfast decline and when you take into account that the saturation point for smartphones is approaching, you'll realize that they will need to bring up REALLY something new or face the fate every tech company finds itself sailing the ship through the stagnation storm just to get alive.
        gress 11y ago
        I agree that larger smartphones attract buyers who otherwise might have bought a tablet, but there is zero evidence that hybrid notebooks have affected the iPad. There isn't even evidence that the overall trend foe the iPad is lower growth - just that the upgrade cycle is slower. As for a 'one-trick pony', that statement is certainly false, as Apple has multiple growing product lines. Also, saturation for smartphones may be approaching in a few markets, but saturation for the iPhone is much much further off, so your prophecy of decline is empty as yet.
  - kalleboo 11y ago
    The exception that proves the rule. Uber ditched the premium ("Apple") role with Uber-X
  - pjc50 11y ago
    Apple surf on the edge. They've managed to maintain a margin by differentiating on quality, maintaining incompatibility at the hardware level, offering an integrated user experience and a vertically integrated cutting-edge manufacturing process. This doesn't work in all markets - see Apple servers. Some of their products (desktops, Apple TV) are probably on the wane.
  - lotsofmangos 11y ago
    They are the only serious company in the home computing space that realised design and ergonomics was more important than processor frequency. Which is interesting given there are many industries, like audio equipment, where there have been many design-led companies, but it seems to be a rarity in computing.
prostoalex 11y ago
The value is in the longevity and diversity of the ratings. You might have top-notch properties at bargain-bin prices for rent, but if it's all "0 reviews, 0 bookings", it's an uphill battle to earn customer trust. Good example is Yelp - one can probably buy a ready-to-go software package off a random "scripts for sale" site, but quality reviewer acquisition and user acquisition through trust might get expensive.
- jacobolus 11y ago
  http://thenewinquiry.com/essays/in-praise-of-fake-reviews/ http://thenewinquiry.com/essays/in-praise-of-fake-reviews/ http://tomslee.net/2013/09/some-obvious-things-about-internet-reputation-systems.html http://tomslee.net/2013/09/some-obvious-things-about-interne...
- konsptheory 11y ago
  Apple's quality at this point of time is SO overrated. Yeah, Apple products out of the factory gates are relatively quality products compared to the competition but they tend to break down over time real quick and show their true colors and Apple's modus operandi of charging people more and more over the lifetime of the devices (recurring income) in replacements and repairs like in the automotive industry.
sdrake 11y ago
I'm pretty sure Whittl does just that.
rmc 11y ago
> These companies will have to offer an API If they don't, they'll be scraped.
JonFish85 11y ago
I agree with you. I suspect that this "sharing" economy idea that they're based around is going to evaporate; I think people will start to realize that Uber/Airbnb are taking a very healthy cut of the profits and carefully sticking their not-employees with all of the costs associated with running a business, costs that maybe aren't immediately apparent (costs of depreciation on a car, costs of insurance for these types of businesses, costs of paying taxes as an independent contractor). It's very lucrative for Airbnb and Uber because they can (try to) distance themselves from any rule breaking because it's not THEM breaking the rules, it's the independent contractors. But I think fairly soon it'll start to evaporate a bit. Sure they might exist, but I'm very skeptical of both companies' $10B+ evaluations, and I think they'll end up becoming something like you mentioned.
jessriedel 11y ago
> Uber and these other services better grab as much money as they can right now. Actually, aren't they running at a loss right now in order to obtain marketshare? And doesn't this suggest that the people financing this loss disagree with you, and believe lock-in will happen?

by nlake44 11y ago

konsptheory 11y ago

Any predominantly Silicon-based (digital) business tends to commoditize over time and Uber or any other service is no exception.

nlake44 11y ago
Yes. Nothing last forever.
r00fus 11y ago
How do you explain Apple?
- TwiztidK 11y ago
  The existence of Apple doesn't preclude the ongoing commoditization of the PC, smartphone, and tablet markets. Apple has already stopped producing servers, which are effective commodity items now.
- konsptheory 11y ago
  Contrary to popular belief and urban myths, the market in which Apple operates is ripe for commoditization and iPod and most recently iPad sales are the best proofs now for my assertion. Forward looking, I'd be really very surprised to see Apple staying relevant in tech in the next decade as the smartphone revolution fades away and the novelty factor they enjoy or make up as well as market dominance will follow suit.
  - gress 11y ago
    The iPod and iPad markets have not commoditized.
    - konsptheory 11y ago
      Yes, it's a work in progress
      - gress 11y ago
        No it isn't. Neither market has been overtaken by commodity products at all. Your argument about Apple products being commoditized is totally without merit. The Mac and iPhone continue to gain share in markets that have commodity alternatives. The iPad sales have slowed but they haven't slowed as much as the commodity alternatives. iPod sales have slowed not because people are buying commodity MP3 players instead, but because people are no longer buying standalone MP3 players.
        konsptheory 11y ago
        The tablet market and more importantly its poster boy the iPad (the notebook killer lol) have been swallowed by two beasts simultaneously, from the bottom up, larger size smartphones, and from the top down, hybrid notebooks like the Surface/Yoga that integrated the touch based interface and generally speaking more capable devices not toys. The MP3 player market and iPods in particular have been swallowed and cannibalized to Apple's discontent by their smartphones and their peers again. So, it doesn't look rosy for Apple as it's becoming more and more a one trick pony with one single dominant product while the rest are suffering or in steadfast decline and when you take into account that the saturation point for smartphones is approaching, you'll realize that they will need to bring up REALLY something new or face the fate every tech company finds itself sailing the ship through the stagnation storm just to get alive.
        gress 11y ago
        I agree that larger smartphones attract buyers who otherwise might have bought a tablet, but there is zero evidence that hybrid notebooks have affected the iPad. There isn't even evidence that the overall trend foe the iPad is lower growth - just that the upgrade cycle is slower. As for a 'one-trick pony', that statement is certainly false, as Apple has multiple growing product lines. Also, saturation for smartphones may be approaching in a few markets, but saturation for the iPhone is much much further off, so your prophecy of decline is empty as yet.
- kalleboo 11y ago
  The exception that proves the rule. Uber ditched the premium ("Apple") role with Uber-X
- pjc50 11y ago
  Apple surf on the edge. They've managed to maintain a margin by differentiating on quality, maintaining incompatibility at the hardware level, offering an integrated user experience and a vertically integrated cutting-edge manufacturing process. This doesn't work in all markets - see Apple servers. Some of their products (desktops, Apple TV) are probably on the wane.
- lotsofmangos 11y ago
  They are the only serious company in the home computing space that realised design and ergonomics was more important than processor frequency. Which is interesting given there are many industries, like audio equipment, where there have been many design-led companies, but it seems to be a rarity in computing.

prostoalex 11y ago

The value is in the longevity and diversity of the ratings. You might have top-notch properties at bargain-bin prices for rent, but if it's all "0 reviews, 0 bookings", it's an uphill battle to earn customer trust. Good example is Yelp - one can probably buy a ready-to-go software package off a random "scripts for sale" site, but quality reviewer acquisition and user acquisition through trust might get expensive.

jacobolus 11y ago
http://thenewinquiry.com/essays/in-praise-of-fake-reviews/ http://thenewinquiry.com/essays/in-praise-of-fake-reviews/ http://tomslee.net/2013/09/some-obvious-things-about-internet-reputation-systems.html http://tomslee.net/2013/09/some-obvious-things-about-interne...
konsptheory 11y ago
Apple's quality at this point of time is SO overrated. Yeah, Apple products out of the factory gates are relatively quality products compared to the competition but they tend to break down over time real quick and show their true colors and Apple's modus operandi of charging people more and more over the lifetime of the devices (recurring income) in replacements and repairs like in the automotive industry.

sdrake 11y ago

I'm pretty sure Whittl does just that.

rmc 11y ago

> These companies will have to offer an API If they don't, they'll be scraped.

JonFish85 11y ago

I agree with you. I suspect that this "sharing" economy idea that they're based around is going to evaporate; I think people will start to realize that Uber/Airbnb are taking a very healthy cut of the profits and carefully sticking their not-employees with all of the costs associated with running a business, costs that maybe aren't immediately apparent (costs of depreciation on a car, costs of insurance for these types of businesses, costs of paying taxes as an independent contractor). It's very lucrative for Airbnb and Uber because they can (try to) distance themselves from any rule breaking because it's not THEM breaking the rules, it's the independent contractors. But I think fairly soon it'll start to evaporate a bit. Sure they might exist, but I'm very skeptical of both companies' $10B+ evaluations, and I think they'll end up becoming something like you mentioned.

jessriedel 11y ago

> Uber and these other services better grab as much money as they can right now. Actually, aren't they running at a loss right now in order to obtain marketshare? And doesn't this suggest that the people financing this loss disagree with you, and believe lock-in will happen?