6 ms·

If 100 biologists sign a petition saying your model is wrong that should be a sign that it's time to double-check some things. And here we have an economist le

by stolio 11y ago

If 100 biologists sign a petition saying your model is wrong that should be a sign that it's time to double-check some things. And here we have an economist lecturing scientists about how to properly view and use math? True, biology is on the "softer" side of the scientific spectrum but I'm not convinced economics is even on it. "Math comes first" is a bad strategy. I'd (softly) argue that just like your probability of randomly hitting a rational number on the number line is zero, the probability of a given framework of math describing reality is also zero. You must explain why you think the math is relevant and descriptive of reality. Or you can demonstrate that your framework allows you to make better predictions than anything else. Either way you'll have to use your words.

one-more-minute 11y ago
This is exactly the thing. Your mathematics may be absolutely watertight, but if your starting assumptions aren't based in reality then your result isn't going to be either. Garbage in, garbage out – and that's going to be true regardless of how "hard" or "soft" your subject is. You could derive perfectly sound results about the population dynamics of pigs assuming that they can fly, but biologists are going to tell you you're wrong regardless of the maths – and rightly so.
msandford 11y ago
Welp, I guess we're going to have to pack up the modern world and go home then. Because many of the major advances in science thus far have been widely rejected by credentialed people at first only to eventually be proven correct. First Semmelweis, then Pasteur: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis#Conflict_with_established_medical_opinions http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis#Conflict_with_... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Pasteur http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Pasteur Copernicus and Galileo vs a lot of other people: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei#Controversy_over_heliocentrism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei#Controversy_ove... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolaus_Copernicus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolaus_Copernicus Einstein and relativity: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_theory_of_relativity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_theory_of_rela... I could do this for days if you'd like. Credentials are worth something of course, but credentials don't have metaphysical powers that prevent a person from being wrong once they have their credentials. EDIT: That's not to say I necessarily believe that these folks are correct and Dawkins is wrong. Just that the credentials don't mean as much as people think they should. It's not like getting a PhD prevents you from ever having a bias ever again. It'd be great if it was true, but it's not.
- stolio 11y ago
  Those scientists all had ideas that made demonstrably superior predictions than other ideas at the time. Evidence outweighs credentials, arguments can take a walk. So what evidence is Taleb bringing to the table? I ask honestly, because when he says "I spent some time scrutinizing the math: it is impeccable, though unsophisticated by mathematical finance standards." I just think Please...spare me If all he has is a mathematical critique that was roundly rejected by 100 experts in the field it's time to put up or shut up. Einstein predicted Mercury's precession, Galileo predicted new laws of motion. What's Taleb predicting?
  - msandford 11y ago
    > If all he has is a mathematical critique that was roundly rejected by 100 experts in the field So, Taleb has looked at the math and says it's good. They haven't looked at the math at all, or if they have, they've made no effort to refute it. If the conclusions are supported by the math (presumably they are, otherwise what's the point of writing the paper?) then to say "no we don't agree with the conclusion" without making any attempt to understand the way that the authors got to the conclusion is pretty freakin' suspect to use a colloquialism.
    - deleted 11y ago
      [deleted]
    - stolio 11y ago
      Looking into it more, Taleb's only clear connection to the paper or biology in general is an old grudge against Dawkins. He's a fascinating economist but it looks like he's out of his element here. It looks like a complete non-story scientifically. However, Taleb's now wandered into a new neighborhood, he's insulted people, he's bragged about his math skills, and he's borderline demanded a paradigm shift in a field he has no background in. This might still get interesting considering A) Dawkins' response might be classic and B) some mathematical physicist might wander by and take issue with a group of scientists being disrespected by an economist who thinks he's good at math.

by stolio 11y ago

one-more-minute 11y ago

This is exactly the thing. Your mathematics may be absolutely watertight, but if your starting assumptions aren't based in reality then your result isn't going to be either. Garbage in, garbage out – and that's going to be true regardless of how "hard" or "soft" your subject is. You could derive perfectly sound results about the population dynamics of pigs assuming that they can fly, but biologists are going to tell you you're wrong regardless of the maths – and rightly so.

msandford 11y ago

Welp, I guess we're going to have to pack up the modern world and go home then. Because many of the major advances in science thus far have been widely rejected by credentialed people at first only to eventually be proven correct. First Semmelweis, then Pasteur: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis#Conflict_with_established_medical_opinions http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis#Conflict_with_... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Pasteur http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Pasteur Copernicus and Galileo vs a lot of other people: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei#Controversy_over_heliocentrism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei#Controversy_ove... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolaus_Copernicus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolaus_Copernicus Einstein and relativity: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_theory_of_relativity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_theory_of_rela... I could do this for days if you'd like. Credentials are worth something of course, but credentials don't have metaphysical powers that prevent a person from being wrong once they have their credentials. EDIT: That's not to say I necessarily believe that these folks are correct and Dawkins is wrong. Just that the credentials don't mean as much as people think they should. It's not like getting a PhD prevents you from ever having a bias ever again. It'd be great if it was true, but it's not.

stolio 11y ago
Those scientists all had ideas that made demonstrably superior predictions than other ideas at the time. Evidence outweighs credentials, arguments can take a walk. So what evidence is Taleb bringing to the table? I ask honestly, because when he says "I spent some time scrutinizing the math: it is impeccable, though unsophisticated by mathematical finance standards." I just think Please...spare me If all he has is a mathematical critique that was roundly rejected by 100 experts in the field it's time to put up or shut up. Einstein predicted Mercury's precession, Galileo predicted new laws of motion. What's Taleb predicting?
- msandford 11y ago
  > If all he has is a mathematical critique that was roundly rejected by 100 experts in the field So, Taleb has looked at the math and says it's good. They haven't looked at the math at all, or if they have, they've made no effort to refute it. If the conclusions are supported by the math (presumably they are, otherwise what's the point of writing the paper?) then to say "no we don't agree with the conclusion" without making any attempt to understand the way that the authors got to the conclusion is pretty freakin' suspect to use a colloquialism.
  - deleted 11y ago
    [deleted]
  - stolio 11y ago
    Looking into it more, Taleb's only clear connection to the paper or biology in general is an old grudge against Dawkins. He's a fascinating economist but it looks like he's out of his element here. It looks like a complete non-story scientifically. However, Taleb's now wandered into a new neighborhood, he's insulted people, he's bragged about his math skills, and he's borderline demanded a paradigm shift in a field he has no background in. This might still get interesting considering A) Dawkins' response might be classic and B) some mathematical physicist might wander by and take issue with a group of scientists being disrespected by an economist who thinks he's good at math.